World Politics Prediction Markets
Global political markets covering international relations, elections, conflicts, and policy decisions. Smart money consensus on geopolitical outcomes.
Markets
603
Avg Alpha Score
15.9
Total Volume
$392.7M
With Smart Money Data
603
603 markets sorted by Alpha Score
Will Israel or the US target Fordow nuclear facility?
YES 37%/NO 64%
Alpha 100Strong NO
$59K
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?
YES 32%/NO 68%
Alpha 100Strong NO
$378K
Iran leadership change by April 30?
YES 40%/NO 61%
Alpha 100Strong NO
$374K
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?
YES 57%/NO 43%
Alpha 100Strong YES
$199K
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026?
YES 32%/NO 68%
Alpha 92Strong NO
$313K
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by March 31?
YES 31%/NO 69%
Alpha 89Strong NO
$73K
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 89Strong NO
$1.7M
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?
YES 29%/NO 71%
Alpha 88Strong NO
$71K
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
YES 67%/NO 33%
Alpha 83Strong YES
$174K
Will US or Israel strike Iran first?
YES 50%/NO 50%
Alpha 82Lean YES
$6.4M
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in March 2026?
YES 26%/NO 74%
Alpha 74Strong NO
$58K
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
YES 14%/NO 86%
Alpha 71Strong NO
$1.4M
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31?
YES 12%/NO 89%
Alpha 68Strong NO
$221K
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?
YES 69%/NO 32%
Alpha 65Strong YES
$80K
Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026?
YES 57%/NO 43%
Alpha 63Strong YES
$52KWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?
YES 12%/NO 89%
Alpha 61Lean NO
$4.1M
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
YES 17%/NO 83%
Alpha 60Lean NO
$1.7M
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?
YES 19%/NO 81%
Alpha 57Strong NO
$356K
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 57Strong NO
$31.6M
Netanyahu out by March 31?
YES 6%/NO 94%
Alpha 56Strong NO
$299K
Will Anže Logar be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?
YES 12%/NO 88%
Alpha 55Strong NO
$296K
Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by March 31, 2026?
YES 21%/NO 79%
Alpha 55Strong NO
$11K
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
YES 38%/NO 62%
Alpha 54Strong NO
$52K
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026?
YES 8%/NO 92%
Alpha 53Strong NO
$592KWill France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 31?
YES 10%/NO 90%
Alpha 51Lean NO
$3.7MWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
YES 46%/NO 55%
Alpha 50Strong NO
$634KWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 49Strong NO
$4.4MHouthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?
YES 35%/NO 66%
Alpha 46Lean NO
$208K
Will Iran strike Ghawar Field by March 31?
YES 17%/NO 84%
Alpha 46Strong NO
$15K
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
YES 37%/NO 64%
Alpha 46Lean NO
$7.7MWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
YES 25%/NO 76%
Alpha 45Lean NO
$15.6M
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.5% and 5.0%?
YES 86%/NO 14%
Alpha 44Strong YES
$9K
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
YES 26%/NO 75%
Alpha 44Strong NO
$103K
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
YES 21%/NO 80%
Alpha 43Strong NO
$426KWill Kuwait strike Iran by March 31?
YES 6%/NO 94%
Alpha 41Strong NO
$64KWill UK strike Iran by March 31?
YES 8%/NO 92%
Alpha 40Lean NO
$681K
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?
YES 52%/NO 49%
Alpha 39Strong NO
$141K
Will Trump declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?
YES 6%/NO 94%
Alpha 39Strong NO
$159KWill Russia enter Stinky by March 31?
YES 17%/NO 84%
Alpha 38Strong NO
$20KWill Russia enter Borova by March 31?
YES 9%/NO 92%
Alpha 37Strong NO
$62K
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?
YES 12%/NO 88%
Alpha 35Strong NO
$164KWill UAE strike Iran by March 31?
YES 17%/NO 84%
Alpha 35Lean NO
$1.6M
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the March Meeting?
YES 78%/NO 23%
Alpha 34Strong YES
$25KWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?
YES 28%/NO 72%
Alpha 34Lean NO
$1.1M
Will Iran strike Lebanon in March?
YES 9%/NO 92%
Alpha 33Strong NO
$36KWill Iran strike Turkey in March?
YES 16%/NO 84%
Alpha 32Lean NO
$363K
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
YES 71%/NO 29%
Alpha 32Lean NO
$3.7M
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?
YES 11%/NO 90%
Alpha 32Lean NO
$408KWill Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30?
YES 10%/NO 90%
Alpha 32Strong NO
$148K
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
YES 44%/NO 56%
Alpha 32Strong YES
$27K
T20 Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka
YES 49%/NO 51%
Alpha 31Strong NO
$18K
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 31Strong NO
$842K
Ukraine hits Moscow by March 31, 2026?
YES 10%/NO 91%
Alpha 31Strong NO
$3KPutin out as President of Russia by end of 2026?
YES 12%/NO 89%
Alpha 31Strong NO
$2.7M
Will Khamenei tweet every day through March 31?
YES 31%/NO 70%
Alpha 30Strong NO
$3K
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?
YES 41%/NO 60%
Alpha 30Lean NO
$221K
Iran Nuke before 2027?
YES 14%/NO 87%
Alpha 29Strong NO
$340K
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
YES 14%/NO 86%
Alpha 29Strong NO
$475K
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by March 31?
YES 13%/NO 87%
Alpha 29Strong NO
$6KWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?
YES 67%/NO 33%
Alpha 29Lean NO
$2.7M
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?
YES 49%/NO 52%
Alpha 29Strong NO
$81K
Phoenix: Nuno Borges vs Marcos Giron
YES 50%/NO 51%
Alpha 29Strong YES
$6K
Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31?
YES 13%/NO 88%
Alpha 28Lean NO
$235K
Jang Dong-hyeok out as PPP Leader by March 31, 2026?
YES 7%/NO 93%
Alpha 28Strong NO
$52KBank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
YES 54%/NO 47%
Alpha 28Lean NO
$38KWill the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?
YES 45%/NO 56%
Alpha 28Strong NO
$2K
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
YES 74%/NO 27%
Alpha 28Strong YES
$1.1M
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026?
YES 6%/NO 94%
Alpha 27Strong NO
$167KWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
YES 35%/NO 66%
Alpha 27Lean NO
$9.6MIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
YES 48%/NO 53%
Alpha 26Strong YES
$20KWill Russia enter Pokrovskoe by April 30, 2026?
YES 6%/NO 94%
Alpha 26Strong NO
$3KWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?
YES 43%/NO 57%
Alpha 25Lean NO
$2.8MIran leadership change by March 31?
YES 23%/NO 77%
Alpha 25Lean NO
$870KWill Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by March 31, 2026?
YES 5%/NO 96%
Alpha 25Strong NO
$218K
Will India strike Pakistan by March 31?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 25Strong NO
$67K
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the April Meeting?
YES 36%/NO 65%
Alpha 25Strong NO
$1KWill Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by March 31?
YES 23%/NO 77%
Alpha 25Lean YES
$22K
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?
YES 7%/NO 94%
Alpha 25Strong NO
$9KTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?
YES 32%/NO 69%
Alpha 25Lean YES
$940KNetanyahu out by June 30?
YES 17%/NO 84%
Alpha 24Strong NO
$37KT20 Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka - Completed match?
YES 55%/NO 45%
Alpha 24Strong YES
$630Iran leadership change by December 31?
YES 66%/NO 35%
Alpha 24Strong NO
$245KWill Jordan strike Iran by March 31?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 24Strong NO
$146KWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?
YES 18%/NO 83%
Alpha 23Lean NO
$847K
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027?
YES 18%/NO 82%
Alpha 23Strong NO
$27KUS/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 15?
YES 12%/NO 89%
Alpha 23Lean NO
$124K
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by March 31?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 23Strong NO
$174KMojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by March 31, 2026?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 22Strong NO
$27K
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YES 17%/NO 83%
Alpha 21Strong YES
$5.5M
Iran coup attempt by June 30?
YES 24%/NO 77%
Alpha 21Lean NO
$240KWill Russia capture Toretske by March 31, 2026?
YES 19%/NO 82%
Alpha 21Lean NO
$23K
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?
YES 32%/NO 69%
Alpha 20Lean YES
$64K
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026?
YES 35%/NO 65%
Alpha 20Strong YES
$358K
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
YES 22%/NO 78%
Alpha 20Strong NO
$160K
Will Powell say "Iran" during March press conference?
YES 62%/NO 39%
Alpha 20Strong NO
$1K
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?
YES 19%/NO 82%
Alpha 20Strong NO
$4K
Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?
YES 70%/NO 30%
Alpha 19Strong YES
$19
1k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in Q1 2026?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 19Strong YES
$43K
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?
YES 26%/NO 75%
Alpha 19Strong NO
$13K
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30?
YES 14%/NO 86%
Alpha 19Strong NO
$55K
Will SPD win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?
YES 56%/NO 45%
Alpha 18Strong YES
$9KUkraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?
YES 14%/NO 86%
Alpha 18Strong NO
$11K
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YES 9%/NO 92%
Alpha 18Lean YES
$5.6M
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?
YES 38%/NO 63%
Alpha 18Strong YES
$4KWill Russia capture all of Vovchansk by April 30?
YES 13%/NO 87%
Alpha 18Strong NO
$648Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?
YES 27%/NO 73%
Alpha 18Strong NO
$122K
Kurds declare independence from Iran?
YES 16%/NO 85%
Alpha 18Lean NO
$88K
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?
YES 28%/NO 72%
Alpha 18Strong NO
$56K
NATO Article 5 by March 31?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 18Strong YES
$21K
Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?
YES 9%/NO 91%
Alpha 18Strong NO
$351K
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
YES 61%/NO 40%
Alpha 17Lean YES
$1.2M
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?
YES 7%/NO 94%
Alpha 17Strong NO
$195K
Russian strike on a NATO member by March 31?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 17Strong NO
$1.5MWill France strike Iran by March 31?
YES 7%/NO 93%
Alpha 17Lean NO
$557KWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?
YES 25%/NO 76%
Alpha 17Lean YES
$71K
Will Starmer say "Mandelson" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
YES 16%/NO 85%
Alpha 17Strong NO
$102Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?
YES 42%/NO 59%
Alpha 17Lean YES
$169K
Will Trump cut off trade with Spain?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 17Lean NO
$295KWill Russia enter Krasnopillya by April 30?
YES 13%/NO 87%
Alpha 17Strong YES
$3KWill CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?
YES 40%/NO 60%
Alpha 17Lean NO
$15K
Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting?
YES 12%/NO 88%
Alpha 16Strong NO
$10K
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?
YES 85%/NO 16%
Alpha 16Strong YES
$44K
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
YES 15%/NO 85%
Alpha 16Lean NO
$653K
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 16Strong YES
$8.1M
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's March 2026 meeting?
YES 25%/NO 75%
Alpha 16Lean YES
$115K
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
YES 22%/NO 78%
Alpha 16Lean NO
$90K
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YES 45%/NO 56%
Alpha 16Lean YES
$4.0MWill Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by March 31?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 16Strong NO
$37K
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 16Strong NO
$352KWill Starmer say "U-turn" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
YES 33%/NO 68%
Alpha 16Strong NO
$16Will Iran strike Safaniya Field by March 31?
YES 28%/NO 73%
Alpha 16Lean NO
$25K
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
YES 13%/NO 88%
Alpha 16Strong NO
$42KWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting?
YES 63%/NO 37%
Alpha 15Strong NO
$9KWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026?
YES 10%/NO 90%
Alpha 15Strong NO
$13K
Nikita Bier out as Head of Product at X by March 31?
YES 3%/NO 98%
Alpha 15Strong NO
$16KUS forces enter Iran by March 14?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 15Lean NO
$6.5M
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 15Strong YES
$5.2MWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?
YES 77%/NO 23%
Alpha 15Lean NO
$1.6M
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 15Strong YES
$5.2M
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 14Strong YES
$5.7M
Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
YES 12%/NO 88%
Alpha 14Strong YES
$184K
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YES 15%/NO 85%
Alpha 14Strong YES
$4.5M
Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026?
YES 7%/NO 93%
Alpha 14Strong NO
$7K
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?
YES 33%/NO 68%
Alpha 14Strong NO
$4K
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the March decision?
YES 87%/NO 14%
Alpha 14Lean NO
$9KUS forces enter Iran by December 31?
YES 65%/NO 36%
Alpha 14Lean NO
$1.7M
Maduro guilty of all counts?
YES 36%/NO 64%
Alpha 14Strong NO
$97K
Claudio Tapia out as AFA President by July 19, 2026?
YES 14%/NO 87%
Alpha 14Strong NO
$190K
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 14Strong YES
$9.9M
Will Trump meet with Putin by March 31, 2026?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 14Lean YES
$197K
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 14Strong YES
$5.4M
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?
YES 17%/NO 83%
Alpha 13Strong NO
$87KWill Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?
YES 38%/NO 62%
Alpha 13Lean YES
$58KNATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
YES 23%/NO 78%
Alpha 13Strong NO
$11KWill Russia capture Havrylivka by April 30, 2026?
YES 25%/NO 76%
Alpha 13Lean NO
$51KWill Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?
YES 16%/NO 85%
Alpha 13Lean NO
$1.3M
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 13Strong YES
$2.1MWill the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting?
YES 88%/NO 12%
Alpha 13Strong NO
$11K
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
YES 16%/NO 85%
Alpha 13Strong NO
$82KWill Iran strike Pakistan in March?
YES 6%/NO 94%
Alpha 13Lean NO
$33K
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by March 31?
YES 11%/NO 89%
Alpha 13Strong YES
$102KNetanyahu out by end of 2026?
YES 44%/NO 56%
Alpha 13Lean NO
$433K
US strike on Mexico by December 31?
YES 30%/NO 71%
Alpha 13Lean NO
$476K
Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31?
YES 18%/NO 83%
Alpha 13Lean NO
$287K
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
YES 8%/NO 93%
Alpha 12Lean NO
$147K
Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?
YES 96%/NO 5%
Alpha 12Strong YES
$88KWill Qatar strike Iran by March 31?
YES 10%/NO 90%
Alpha 12Lean NO
$738KWill Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YES 3%/NO 98%
Alpha 12Strong YES
$4.6M
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?
YES 71%/NO 29%
Alpha 12Lean NO
$80K
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
YES 17%/NO 83%
Alpha 12Strong NO
$388K
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 12Strong YES
$8.6M
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 12Strong YES
$2.6MWill Turkey strike Iran by March 31?
YES 6%/NO 94%
Alpha 12Lean NO
$337K
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?
YES 61%/NO 39%
Alpha 12Strong NO
$2K
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
YES 28%/NO 72%
Alpha 12Lean YES
$394KWill Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by March 31, 2026?
YES 22%/NO 78%
Alpha 12Lean YES
$31K
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
YES 88%/NO 13%
Alpha 11Strong YES
$11K
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 14?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 11Lean NO
$82K
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
YES 20%/NO 81%
Alpha 11Lean YES
$3.2M
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?
YES 36%/NO 65%
Alpha 11Lean NO
$54K
Will another country recognize Somaliland by March 31?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 11Lean NO
$147KWill Khamenei tweet every day through March 27?
YES 41%/NO 60%
Alpha 11Strong YES
$3K
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YES 38%/NO 62%
Alpha 11Lean YES
$3.2M
Will Italy join the Board of Peace?
YES 3%/NO 98%
Alpha 11Lean YES
$38KWill Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YES 6%/NO 94%
Alpha 11Strong YES
$8.0M
US strike on Cuba by March 31?
YES 4%/NO 97%
Alpha 11Lean NO
$928KWill CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
YES 53%/NO 47%
Alpha 11Strong YES
$6KWill Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by March 31?
YES 26%/NO 74%
Alpha 10Lean NO
$26KWill Iran strike Syria in March?
YES 14%/NO 86%
Alpha 10Lean NO
$41K
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
YES 21%/NO 80%
Alpha 10Lean NO
$820KWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
YES 87%/NO 14%
Alpha 10Lean YES
$264KWill Russia enter Novyi Donbas by March 31?
YES 18%/NO 83%
Alpha 10Strong YES
$12K
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
YES 17%/NO 83%
Alpha 10Strong YES
$296KWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 10Strong YES
$9.3MWill Russia enter Kherson by June 30?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 10Strong YES
$41K
Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
YES 16%/NO 85%
Alpha 10Lean YES
$118K
Russian strike on Poland by June 30?
YES 6%/NO 94%
Alpha 10Strong NO
$35KWill Russia enter Dobropillia by March 31?
YES 5%/NO 96%
Alpha 10Strong NO
$9K
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
YES 50%/NO 51%
Alpha 10Lean YES
$401K
US announces military support of Iran oppostion by March 31?
YES 14%/NO 87%
Alpha 10Lean NO
$114K
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union" before 2027?
YES 16%/NO 85%
Alpha 10Strong NO
$2K
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
YES 23%/NO 77%
Alpha 10Lean NO
$66K
Macron out by June 30, 2026?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 10Strong NO
$262KMasoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?
YES 33%/NO 67%
Alpha 10Lean NO
$91K
Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 9Lean NO
$506K
Modi out before 2027?
YES 7%/NO 93%
Alpha 9Strong NO
$16KWill Iran strike Cyprus in March?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 9Lean NO
$1.1M
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?
YES 76%/NO 24%
Alpha 9Strong NO
$75K
Will Daniel Ennis win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?
YES 73%/NO 27%
Alpha 9Strong NO
$6K
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 9Lean YES
$2.7M
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
YES 9%/NO 91%
Alpha 9Lean NO
$7.2M
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
YES 11%/NO 89%
Alpha 9Lean NO
$10.9M
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YES 20%/NO 80%
Alpha 9Lean YES
$8.0MUS strike on Mexico by March 31?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 9Lean NO
$1.3M
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 9Strong YES
$2.2M
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?
YES 73%/NO 27%
Alpha 9Strong NO
$10KUS-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 8Lean NO
$1.0MWill Iran strike Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery by March 31?
YES 32%/NO 69%
Alpha 8Lean NO
$23KWill Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 8Strong YES
$353KIsrael and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?
YES 10%/NO 90%
Alpha 8Strong YES
$203K
Internet Access restored in Iran by March 31, 2026?
YES 10%/NO 90%
Alpha 8Lean NO
$7K
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
YES 71%/NO 30%
Alpha 8Lean YES
$511K
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?
YES 6%/NO 94%
Alpha 8Strong NO
$23KWill Russia capture Pokrovka by March 31?
YES 28%/NO 72%
Alpha 8Lean NO
$4KWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YES 25%/NO 75%
Alpha 8Lean YES
$12.6M
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?
YES 37%/NO 63%
Alpha 8Strong YES
$4K
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be 35% or greater on March 31?
YES 5%/NO 96%
Alpha 8Lean YES
$45KWill Iran strike Dimona by March 31?
YES 6%/NO 94%
Alpha 8Lean NO
$86KWill Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
YES 18%/NO 82%
Alpha 8Lean YES
$715KWill Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by March 31?
YES 25%/NO 75%
Alpha 8Lean YES
$14K
Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026?
YES 16%/NO 84%
Alpha 8Strong NO
$6K
Will Hezbollah win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 8Lean YES
$41KWill Starmer say "Reform" 2+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
YES 86%/NO 14%
Alpha 8Lean NO
$139Will Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 25+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
YES 27%/NO 74%
Alpha 8Strong YES
$97Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?
YES 27%/NO 74%
Alpha 8Lean NO
$96KWill Iran strike Jordan in March?
YES 79%/NO 22%
Alpha 8Lean YES
$43K
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives before 2027?
YES 20%/NO 81%
Alpha 8Strong YES
$111K
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by March 31, 2026?
YES 14%/NO 86%
Alpha 7Strong YES
$961Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
YES 26%/NO 74%
Alpha 7Lean NO
$293K
Erdoğan out by end of 2026?
YES 12%/NO 89%
Alpha 7Lean NO
$260KWill the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after March 2026 meeting?
YES 74%/NO 26%
Alpha 7Lean YES
$95K
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
YES 21%/NO 79%
Alpha 7Strong YES
$37KWill Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?
YES 73%/NO 28%
Alpha 7Lean YES
$87K
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
YES 9%/NO 91%
Alpha 7Strong NO
$8K
Will Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30?
YES 8%/NO 93%
Alpha 7Strong YES
$3K
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 7Strong YES
$235K
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 7Strong YES
$473K
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31?
YES 94%/NO 6%
Alpha 7Strong YES
$30K
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?
YES 28%/NO 73%
Alpha 7Lean YES
$10KUkraine election held by December 31, 2026?
YES 21%/NO 79%
Alpha 7Lean NO
$166K
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 7Strong YES
$2.3M
Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 7Strong YES
$392KWill China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.5%?
YES 10%/NO 91%
Alpha 7Strong YES
$9K
NATO dissolves before 2027?
YES 6%/NO 95%
Alpha 7Strong NO
$48K
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 7Strong YES
$618K
More EU sanctions on Russia by March 31?
YES 22%/NO 78%
Alpha 6Lean NO
$4KNuclear weapon detonation by December 31?
YES 19%/NO 82%
Alpha 6Strong YES
$90KWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March?
YES 10%/NO 90%
Alpha 6Lean NO
$138K
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary before 2027?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 6Strong YES
$31K
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 6Lean YES
$5.6M
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 6Strong YES
$691KAnother critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?
YES 87%/NO 13%
Alpha 6Lean YES
$34KWill the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the March decision?
YES 11%/NO 90%
Alpha 6Lean YES
$6K
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?
YES 17%/NO 83%
Alpha 6Strong NO
$5KWill Russia join the Board of Peace?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 6Lean NO
$252K
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?
YES 3%/NO 98%
Alpha 6Strong YES
$304KIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?
YES 14%/NO 87%
Alpha 6Lean NO
$34K
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 6Strong YES
$2.8M
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
YES 23%/NO 77%
Alpha 6Lean NO
$159KWill Starmer say "Iran" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
YES 94%/NO 6%
Alpha 6Strong NO
$412Will Xi Jinping purge Wang Yi in 2026?
YES 9%/NO 92%
Alpha 6Strong NO
$5K
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?
YES 83%/NO 17%
Alpha 6Lean YES
$105K
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
YES 6%/NO 94%
Alpha 6Lean YES
$19K
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?
YES 36%/NO 65%
Alpha 6Lean YES
$106K
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
YES 6%/NO 95%
Alpha 6Lean YES
$54KWill Starmer say "Abramovich" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
YES 20%/NO 81%
Alpha 6Strong YES
$30
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?
YES 25%/NO 76%
Alpha 6Lean NO
$361K
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026?
YES 13%/NO 87%
Alpha 6Strong YES
$23KNATO x Russia military clash by March 31, 2026?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 5Lean NO
$405KWill there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?
YES 15%/NO 85%
Alpha 5Strong YES
$58KWill Russia capture all of Drobysheve by March 31?
YES 6%/NO 94%
Alpha 5Lean NO
$26K
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 5Strong NO
$209K
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
YES 78%/NO 22%
Alpha 5Lean YES
$16KWill Jared Kushner enter Iran by June 30?
YES 11%/NO 90%
Alpha 5Lean NO
$4K
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31?
YES 43%/NO 57%
Alpha 5Strong YES
$29KWill India join the Board of Peace?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 5Lean NO
$43KWill Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?
YES 20%/NO 81%
Alpha 5Lean YES
$126K
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
YES 10%/NO 91%
Alpha 5Strong YES
$180KWill Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026?
YES 29%/NO 71%
Alpha 5Lean NO
$18K
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 5Strong YES
$713K
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
YES 18%/NO 83%
Alpha 5Lean YES
$68K
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 5Strong YES
$33KXi Jinping out by June 30?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 5Lean YES
$1.5MWill Xi Jinping purge Zhang Shengmin in 2026?
YES 13%/NO 88%
Alpha 5Strong NO
$8KUkraine agrees not to join NATO by March 31?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 5Lean NO
$59K
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
YES 14%/NO 86%
Alpha 5Strong YES
$253K
José Luís Rodríguez Zapatero arrested by March 31?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 5Lean NO
$104K
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?
YES 33%/NO 67%
Alpha 5Lean YES
$833KWill Russia enter Dobropillia by April 30?
YES 11%/NO 89%
Alpha 5Strong YES
$5K
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the April meeting?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 5Strong NO
$2K
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?
YES 36%/NO 65%
Alpha 5Strong YES
$21KWill Khamenei tweet again on March 15, 2026?
YES 90%/NO 11%
Alpha 5Lean NO
$16K
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 4Lean NO
$2.1MWill Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 4Lean YES
$128KWill Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
YES 5%/NO 96%
Alpha 4Strong YES
$120K
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31?
YES 17%/NO 83%
Alpha 4Strong NO
$424
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 4Lean YES
$297KNATO article 5 before 2027?
YES 15%/NO 85%
Alpha 4Lean YES
$28K
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
YES 59%/NO 41%
Alpha 4Lean NO
$25K
Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026?
YES 10%/NO 91%
Alpha 4Strong YES
$118K
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?
YES 24%/NO 77%
Alpha 4Lean NO
$23KWill Israel strike 6 countries in 2026?
YES 7%/NO 93%
Alpha 4Strong YES
$19K
Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
YES 18%/NO 83%
Alpha 4Strong YES
$106K
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?
YES 7%/NO 93%
Alpha 4Lean YES
$609K
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?
YES 9%/NO 91%
Alpha 4Strong YES
$15K
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
YES 14%/NO 86%
Alpha 4Strong YES
$27K
Will Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?
YES 3%/NO 98%
Alpha 4Strong YES
$58KWill Maryam Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 4Strong YES
$167K
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?
YES 16%/NO 84%
Alpha 4Strong YES
$6KWill Starmer say "Rules-based" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
YES 10%/NO 90%
Alpha 4Strong YES
$15Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the March Meeting?
YES 13%/NO 88%
Alpha 4Lean NO
$23KWill Starmer say "Andrew" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
YES 14%/NO 86%
Alpha 4Strong YES
$5
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?
YES 13%/NO 87%
Alpha 4Lean YES
$17KWill Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 3Strong YES
$80K
Israel x Syria security agreement by March 31?
YES 5%/NO 96%
Alpha 3Lean NO
$146K
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
YES 8%/NO 92%
Alpha 3Lean NO
$275K
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 3Strong YES
$127K
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea before 2027?
YES 7%/NO 94%
Alpha 3Strong NO
$49K
EU dissolves before 2027?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 3Lean NO
$149K
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026?
YES 9%/NO 92%
Alpha 3Lean NO
$290K
US strike on Colombia by December 31?
YES 25%/NO 76%
Alpha 3Lean YES
$410KWill Israel strike 7 countries in 2026?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 3Lean YES
$33K
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
YES 6%/NO 94%
Alpha 3Lean YES
$227K
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 3Lean NO
$38KWill Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
YES 16%/NO 84%
Alpha 3Lean NO
$97KWill Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
YES 5%/NO 96%
Alpha 3Lean YES
$13K
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?
YES 33%/NO 67%
Alpha 3Lean NO
$81K
Ukraine coup attempt by June 30?
YES 7%/NO 93%
Alpha 3Lean NO
$8KWill SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
YES 6%/NO 94%
Alpha 3Strong YES
$3K
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
YES 10%/NO 90%
Alpha 3Lean YES
$13K
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30?
YES 6%/NO 95%
Alpha 3Strong YES
$67KWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 3Lean NO
$1.3M
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain?
YES 9%/NO 92%
Alpha 3Lean NO
$84K
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US before 2027?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 3Strong YES
$30K
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 3Strong NO
$3KT20 Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka - Team Top Batter Draw
YES 52%/NO 48%
Alpha 3Strong YES
--Will Xi Jinping purge Cai Qi in 2026?
YES 8%/NO 92%
Alpha 2Strong NO
$19K
People's Bank of China rate cut by March 31?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 2Lean NO
$24KWill Iran strike Afghanistan in March?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 2Lean NO
$14K
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
YES 10%/NO 90%
Alpha 2Lean YES
$315K
Will Gerry Hutch win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 2Strong NO
$4KWill Russia enter Malokaterynivka by March 31, 2026?
YES 6%/NO 94%
Alpha 2Strong NO
--
Will Netanyahu visit NYC by March 31?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 2Lean NO
$103KKadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026?
YES 31%/NO 70%
Alpha 2Lean YES
$26K
Iran strike on US military by March 31?
YES 28%/NO 72%
Alpha 2Strong NO
--
China coup attempt before 2027?
YES 7%/NO 93%
Alpha 2Lean NO
$105K
Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?
YES 13%/NO 88%
Alpha 2Strong YES
$28K
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
YES 8%/NO 92%
Alpha 2Lean YES
$232KWill Xi Jinping purge Li Xi in 2026?
YES 8%/NO 92%
Alpha 2Strong YES
$10KWill Ali Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
YES 7%/NO 93%
Alpha 2Strong YES
$109KWill Xi Jinping purge Zhao Leji in 2026?
YES 6%/NO 94%
Alpha 2Strong YES
$4KWill Russia enter Borova by April 30?
YES 24%/NO 77%
Alpha 2Strong NO
--
Will Séamas McGrattan win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 2Strong YES
$1K
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30?
YES 6%/NO 94%
Alpha 2Lean NO
$452K
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?
YES 87%/NO 13%
Alpha 2Strong NO
$11K
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
YES 14%/NO 87%
Alpha 2Lean NO
$99K
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
YES 62%/NO 38%
Alpha 2Strong YES
--Will Xi Jinping purge Ding Xuexiang in 2026?
YES 10%/NO 90%
Alpha 2Strong YES
$9KWill Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
YES 35%/NO 66%
Alpha 2Lean NO
$44K
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
YES 30%/NO 70%
Alpha 2Lean NO
$103K
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 2Lean YES
$128KU.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?
YES 11%/NO 90%
Alpha 1Split
$1.2MRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
YES 7%/NO 94%
Alpha 1Split
$571K
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?
YES 24%/NO 77%
Alpha 1Split
$2.6MWill Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30?
YES 19%/NO 82%
Alpha 1Lean YES
--
Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027?
YES 27%/NO 73%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--
Will Noel Thomas win the 2026 Galway West by-election?
YES 44%/NO 56%
Alpha 1Strong YES
--
Will Union Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--
Will Indonesia recognize Israel by June 30?
YES 12%/NO 88%
Alpha 1Strong YES
--Will Russia capture Kindrativka by March 31?
YES 9%/NO 92%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--Will BRICS add a new member in 2026?
YES 40%/NO 61%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--
Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30?
YES 18%/NO 83%
Alpha 1Strong YES
--
US forces in Venezuela again by March 31, 2026?
YES 8%/NO 93%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?
YES 64%/NO 36%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--
Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be at least 2.5%?
YES 6%/NO 94%
Alpha 1Strong YES
$1KUkraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?
YES 16%/NO 85%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?
YES 23%/NO 78%
Alpha 1Strong YES
--Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
YES 89%/NO 11%
Alpha 1Split
$5.6M
Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?
YES 16%/NO 85%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--
Will Israel advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?
YES 91%/NO 10%
Alpha 1Strong YES
--
Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?
YES 28%/NO 72%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--
Will Ukraine advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?
YES 94%/NO 6%
Alpha 1Strong YES
--
US recognize Somaliland by June 30, 2026?
YES 16%/NO 84%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?
YES 17%/NO 84%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?
YES 7%/NO 94%
Alpha 1Lean NO
$102K
Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?
YES 21%/NO 79%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?
YES 19%/NO 81%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria before 2027?
YES 14%/NO 86%
Alpha 1Lean NO
$53K
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?
YES 7%/NO 93%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--
Will Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?
YES 3%/NO 97%
No ScoreStrong YES
--
Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?
YES 6%/NO 94%
No ScoreSplit
$530KWill Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
YES 20%/NO 80%
No ScoreStrong YES
--US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
YES 40%/NO 61%
No ScoreSplit
$2.3M
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
YES 11%/NO 90%
No ScoreSplit
$236KWill USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by March 31?
YES 11%/NO 89%
No ScoreSplit
$180K
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?
YES 8%/NO 93%
No ScoreSplit
$86KStarmer out by March 31, 2026?
YES 6%/NO 94%
No ScoreSplit
$663KWill the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 15% and 25% on March 31?
YES 12%/NO 89%
No ScoreSplit
$42K
Next Thai Prime Minister Chosen by March 31?
YES 92%/NO 9%
No ScoreSplit
$305KWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?
YES 6%/NO 95%
No ScoreSplit
$861KWill the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on March 31?
YES 78%/NO 22%
No ScoreSplit
$57KWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
YES 59%/NO 42%
No ScoreSplit
$13KWill Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
YES 28%/NO 73%
No ScoreSplit
$562K
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?
YES 9%/NO 91%
No ScoreSplit
$9K
US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by March 15?
YES 3%/NO 97%
No ScoreSplit
$31K
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
YES 13%/NO 88%
No ScoreSplit
$23KWill Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
YES 83%/NO 17%
No ScoreSplit
$68Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
YES 32%/NO 68%
No ScoreSplit
$496K
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 15?
YES 5%/NO 95%
No ScoreSplit
$29K
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by June 30?
YES 5%/NO 95%
No ScoreSplit
$4KECB rate hike in 2026?
YES 48%/NO 53%
No ScoreSplit
$24K
Anthony Albanese out as Prime Minister of Australia by June 30, 2026?
YES 7%/NO 93%
No ScoreStrong YES
--Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by March 31?
YES 6%/NO 95%
No ScoreSplit
--
Will National Liberal Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
YES 2%/NO 98%
No ScoreStrong NO
--
Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?
YES 12%/NO 88%
No ScoreSplit
$18KIsrael x Syria security agreement by June 30?
YES 27%/NO 74%
No ScoreSplit
$158KWill United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
YES 34%/NO 67%
No ScoreSplit
$3KIsraeli parliament dissolved by June 30?
YES 54%/NO 46%
No ScoreSplit
$53K
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?
YES 92%/NO 8%
No ScoreSplit
$70K
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026?
YES 5%/NO 95%
No ScoreSplit
$92KWill the Bank of Canada announce no change at the March meeting?
YES 98%/NO 2%
No ScoreSplit
$43K
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
YES 6%/NO 94%
No ScoreSplit
$700K
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 16?
YES 3%/NO 97%
No ScoreSplit
$217K
Will Russia strike Kyiv on March 31, 2026?
YES 11%/NO 89%
No ScoreSplit
$26KWill Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by April 30, 2026?
YES 28%/NO 72%
No ScoreSplit
$8K
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?
YES 10%/NO 91%
No ScoreSplit
$128K
Will there be a US x Iran ceasefire before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?
YES 39%/NO 61%
No ScoreSplit
$26K
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
YES 36%/NO 64%
No ScoreSplit
$559KUS-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
YES 12%/NO 89%
No ScoreSplit
$17K
Anyone charged for doxing Delta Force commander heading Maduro grab by March 31?
YES 2%/NO 98%
No ScoreSplit
$2K
Will Marco Rubio visit China by December 31, 2026?
YES 87%/NO 14%
No ScoreSplit
$857Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?
YES 30%/NO 71%
No ScoreSplit
$264KWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March?
YES 16%/NO 85%
No ScoreSplit
$134KWill Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30?
YES 7%/NO 94%
No ScoreSplit
$67KWill Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by March 31?
YES 24%/NO 76%
No ScoreSplit
$28KWill Russia enter Serhiivka by March 31?
YES 23%/NO 78%
No ScoreSplit
$22KWill Russia enter Khatnie by March 31, 2026?
YES 12%/NO 89%
No ScoreSplit
--Will Israel strike 2 countries in March 2026?
YES 36%/NO 65%
No ScoreSplit
$46K
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31?
YES 4%/NO 96%
No ScoreSplit
$284KWill Brazil join the Board of Peace?
YES 9%/NO 91%
No ScoreSplit
$14K
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30?
YES 12%/NO 88%
No ScoreSplit
$23KUS x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
YES 53%/NO 48%
No ScoreSplit
$829K
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?
YES 13%/NO 87%
No ScoreSplit
$58KWill Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?
YES 21%/NO 79%
No ScoreSplit
$37KStarmer out by April 30, 2026?
YES 12%/NO 88%
No ScoreSplit
$28K
Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026?
YES 81%/NO 19%
No ScoreSplit
$252K
Will Alex Vanopslagh be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?
YES 4%/NO 96%
No ScoreSplit
$169K
Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026?
YES 6%/NO 94%
No ScoreSplit
$78K
Will Popular Nasserist Organization win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
YES 2%/NO 98%
No ScoreStrong NO
--
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?
YES 38%/NO 63%
No ScoreSplit
$55KWill Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?
YES 57%/NO 43%
No ScoreSplit
$123KUS x Iran ceasefire by June 30?
YES 58%/NO 42%
No ScoreSplit
$887KWill Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026?
YES 10%/NO 90%
No ScoreSplit
$597KIsrael x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
YES 38%/NO 63%
No ScoreSplit
$22KWill Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility?
YES 78%/NO 22%
No ScoreSplit
$49KUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
YES 19%/NO 82%
No ScoreSplit
$7.9M
Israel strike on Damascus by March 31, 2026?
YES 9%/NO 91%
No ScoreSplit
$102KWill the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the March Meeting?
YES 20%/NO 81%
No ScoreSplit
$39KWill United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
YES 96%/NO 4%
No ScoreSplit
$57KWill Marco Rubio visit China by April 30, 2026?
YES 81%/NO 20%
No ScoreSplit
$26K
Will Taqaddom Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
YES 2%/NO 98%
No ScoreSplit
--
Swiss National Bank decreases policy rate after March Meeting?
YES 5%/NO 95%
No ScoreSplit
$15KWill Russia capture Lyman by April 30, 2026?
YES 28%/NO 72%
No ScoreSplit
$51KWill Israel strike 2 countries in 2026?
YES 8%/NO 92%
No ScoreSplit
$894KWill Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30?
YES 9%/NO 91%
No ScoreSplit
$15K
Will Hamas agree to disarm by March 31?
YES 4%/NO 96%
No ScoreSplit
$241KIsrael strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?
YES 66%/NO 35%
No ScoreSplit
$307K
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?
YES 11%/NO 90%
No ScoreSplit
$198KWill Russia enter Ternuvate again by March 31?
YES 13%/NO 87%
No ScoreSplit
$66K
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
YES 22%/NO 79%
No ScoreSplit
$122KLabour leadership election scheduled by March 31?
YES 2%/NO 98%
No ScoreSplit
--Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?
YES 5%/NO 95%
No ScoreSplit
$591KUkraine peace referendum passed before 2027?
YES 26%/NO 75%
No ScoreStrong YES
--
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?
YES 5%/NO 95%
No ScoreSplit
$261K
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?
YES 58%/NO 42%
No ScoreSplit
$141KWill Israel strike 3 countries in March 2026?
YES 37%/NO 63%
No ScoreSplit
$25K
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?
YES 8%/NO 93%
No ScoreSplit
$137KWill Starmer say "Churchill" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
YES 23%/NO 78%
No ScoreSplit
$8Will Khamenei tweet every day through March 20?
YES 64%/NO 37%
No ScoreSplit
$5KWill a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?
YES 7%/NO 94%
No ScoreSplit
$200K
Will the Labour Party (PvdA) win the most seats in Amsterdam’s 2026 municipal election?
YES 41%/NO 59%
No ScoreSplit
$6K
Will Greece recognize Palestine before 2027?
YES 11%/NO 89%
No ScoreStrong YES
--Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?
YES 31%/NO 69%
No ScoreSplit
$283Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by March 31?
YES 61%/NO 39%
No ScoreSplit
$44K
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
YES 3%/NO 97%
No ScoreLean NO
--
Will ReLebanon win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
YES 3%/NO 97%
No ScoreSplit
--Will Starmer say "Dialogue" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
YES 14%/NO 86%
No ScoreSplit
$108
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
YES 77%/NO 24%
No ScoreSplit
$352KLecornu out as French PM by June 30, 2026?
YES 13%/NO 88%
No ScoreSplit
$15KWill the Bank of Israel increase the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?
YES 8%/NO 92%
No ScoreStrong YES
--Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?
YES 25%/NO 75%
No ScoreSplit
--Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31?
YES 27%/NO 74%
No ScoreSplit
$150K
Sudan civil war ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
YES 21%/NO 79%
No ScoreSplit
--Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
YES 2%/NO 98%
No ScoreSplit
$30K
Will Israel annex any territory by June 30?
YES 10%/NO 90%
No ScoreSplit
$110K
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
YES 26%/NO 75%
No ScoreLean NO
--
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan in 2026?
YES 11%/NO 89%
No ScoreSplit
$18K
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026?
YES 34%/NO 67%
No ScoreSplit
$31KAnother critical Cloudflare incident by March 31, 2026?
YES 29%/NO 71%
No ScoreSplit
$74K
New COVID variant of concern before 2027?
YES 12%/NO 89%
No ScoreSplit
$228KECB rate cut in 2026?
YES 28%/NO 73%
No ScoreSplit
$17K
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
YES 3%/NO 97%
No ScoreSplit
$44KWill Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?
YES 21%/NO 79%
No ScoreSplit
$135KRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
YES 38%/NO 63%
No ScoreSplit
$11.6M
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?
YES 14%/NO 86%
No ScoreSplit
--
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31?
YES 31%/NO 70%
No ScoreSplit
$122K
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
YES 13%/NO 87%
No ScoreSplit
$127KWill Russia capture Havrylivka by March 31, 2026?
YES 5%/NO 95%
No ScoreStrong NO
--
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
YES 63%/NO 38%
No ScoreSplit
$3.4M
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?
YES 9%/NO 92%
No ScoreSplit
$15KWill Russia capture all of Rodynske by March 31?
YES 32%/NO 69%
No ScoreSplit
$179KWill Russia enter Havrylivka by March 31, 2026?
YES 6%/NO 94%
No ScoreSplit
--Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?
YES 4%/NO 96%
No ScoreSplit
$1.8MIsrael x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by March 31, 2026?
YES 6%/NO 94%
No ScoreSplit
$127KMasoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?
YES 46%/NO 55%
No ScoreSplit
$98K
Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack?
YES 9%/NO 92%
No ScoreSplit
$402KWill Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
YES 21%/NO 80%
No ScoreSplit
$36KWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March?
YES 3%/NO 97%
No ScoreSplit
$282KWill Khamenei tweet again on March 14, 2026?
YES 92%/NO 8%
No ScoreSplit
$9K
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations by March 31?
YES 3%/NO 97%
No ScoreSplit
$68KClaudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30?
YES 5%/NO 95%
No ScoreSplit
$115KWill Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026?
YES 3%/NO 97%
No ScoreSplit
$47KWill Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?
YES 18%/NO 82%
No ScoreSplit
$216K
Will Kataeb Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
YES 2%/NO 98%
No ScoreStrong NO
--
U.S. strike on Nigeria by June 30, 2026?
YES 33%/NO 68%
No ScoreSplit
$612Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?
YES 5%/NO 95%
No ScoreSplit
$65KWill Iran strike Yemen in March?
YES 3%/NO 97%
No ScoreSplit
$11K
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?
YES 88%/NO 12%
No ScoreSplit
$134KWill Russia enter Kharkiv by June 30?
YES 4%/NO 96%
No ScoreSplit
$32KAnother critical Cloudflare incident by May 31, 2026?
YES 75%/NO 25%
No ScoreSplit
$29KWill Israel strike 8 countries in 2026?
YES 2%/NO 98%
No ScoreSplit
$126KWill Russia capture all of Rodynske by April 30?
YES 67%/NO 33%
No ScoreSplit
$22KKadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by March 31, 2026?
YES 2%/NO 98%
No ScoreSplit
$71KIran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?
YES 75%/NO 26%
No ScoreSplit
$257KWill the Bank of Canada announce no change at the April meeting?
YES 86%/NO 14%
No ScoreSplit
$6KWill Iran strike Jordan in March?
YES 80%/NO 21%
No ScoreSplit
$56K
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?
YES 11%/NO 90%
No ScoreSplit
$64K
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31?
YES 22%/NO 79%
No ScoreSplit
$157KWill any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30?
YES 13%/NO 87%
No ScoreSplit
$38K
Nguesso out as President of the Republic of the Congo by end of 2026?
YES 14%/NO 87%
No ScoreSplit
--Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?
YES 85%/NO 16%
No ScoreSplit
$4KWill Russia enter Sumy by June 30?
YES 7%/NO 94%
No ScoreSplit
--Will Ukraine join the Board of Peace?
YES 5%/NO 95%
No ScoreSplit
$54K
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?
YES 88%/NO 13%
No ScoreSplit
--Anthony Albanese out as Prime Minister of Australia by December 31, 2026?
YES 18%/NO 82%
No ScoreStrong YES
--T20 Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka - Who wins the toss?
YES 49%/NO 52%
No ScoreSplit
--Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
YES 51%/NO 49%
No ScoreSplit
$285KUS x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
YES 30%/NO 71%
No ScoreSplit
$88KWill Russia capture Sofiivka by March 31?
YES 20%/NO 80%
No ScoreSplit
$39K
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027?
YES 3%/NO 97%
No ScoreStrong YES
--Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
YES 20%/NO 81%
No ScoreSplit
$569K
Yoon out of custody before 2027?
YES 8%/NO 92%
No ScoreStrong YES
--
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?
YES 9%/NO 92%
No ScoreSplit
$93KIran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?
YES 18%/NO 83%
No ScoreSplit
$1.3MStarmer out by June 30, 2026?
YES 46%/NO 55%
No ScoreSplit
$1.2MUkraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
YES 27%/NO 73%
No ScoreSplit
$175KWill Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
YES 18%/NO 82%
No ScoreSplit
--US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31?
YES 44%/NO 56%
No ScoreSplit
$65KNuclear weapon detonation by June 30?
YES 12%/NO 89%
No ScoreSplit
$251KWill Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30?
YES 5%/NO 95%
No ScoreSplit
$17KWill the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 35% on March 31?
YES 2%/NO 98%
No ScoreSplit
$45K
North Korea missile test/launch by March 31?
YES 60%/NO 40%
No ScoreSplit
$27K
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
YES 20%/NO 81%
No ScoreSplit
$94KWill Bahrain strike Iran by March 31?
YES 10%/NO 91%
No ScoreSplit
$158KWill María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
YES 14%/NO 86%
No ScoreSplit
$812K
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?
YES 3%/NO 97%
No ScoreSplit
$112K
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
YES 26%/NO 75%
No ScoreSplit
$505K
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
YES 13%/NO 88%
No ScoreSplit
$153KIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 31?
YES 5%/NO 95%
No ScoreSplit
$549K
Will Jia Yueting enter mainland China by June 30?
YES 2%/NO 98%
No ScoreSplit
$21K
US x China Military clash before 2027?
YES 9%/NO 92%
No ScoreSplit
$28KWill Russia enter Mykhailivka by April 30?
YES 22%/NO 79%
No ScoreSplit
$85K
Tshisekedi out as President of the DRC by end of 2026?
YES 12%/NO 89%
No ScoreSplit
--
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by June 30?
YES 17%/NO 83%
No ScoreSplit
$72K
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?
YES 12%/NO 89%
No ScoreSplit
$106K
French election called by June 30, 2026?
YES 8%/NO 93%
No ScoreSplit
$71K
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
YES 37%/NO 64%
No ScoreSplit
$2.9MUS-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
YES 40%/NO 60%
No ScoreSplit
$380KWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the March Meeting?
YES 86%/NO 14%
No ScoreSplit
$24K
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
YES 19%/NO 81%
No ScoreSplit
$62K
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
YES 19%/NO 82%
No ScoreSplit
$30K
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?
YES 21%/NO 80%
No ScoreSplit
$59K
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
YES 2%/NO 98%
No ScoreSplit
$26KWill Russia capture Bilytske by March 31, 2026?
YES 7%/NO 94%
No ScoreSplit
$55K
Bank of England increases interest rates after April 2026 meeting?
YES 11%/NO 89%
No ScoreSplit
--Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?
YES 69%/NO 32%
No ScoreSplit
$21KMahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by June 30?
YES 28%/NO 72%
No ScoreLean YES
--Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31?
YES 14%/NO 87%
No ScoreSplit
$1.7MWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31?
YES 18%/NO 83%
No ScoreSplit
$109KIran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
YES 63%/NO 38%
No ScoreSplit
$481K
Will Watani Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
YES 2%/NO 98%
No ScoreStrong NO
--
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?
YES 6%/NO 95%
No ScoreSplit
$103KTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?
YES 80%/NO 20%
No ScoreSplit
$59KWorld Politics Markets FAQ
How many world politics prediction markets are available?
There are currently 603 world politics prediction markets being tracked and analyzed on PolyPulse. Each market includes smart money consensus data, alpha scoring, and opportunity assessment.
What is the average alpha score for world politics markets?
The average alpha score across world politics markets is 15.9 out of 100. Markets in this category tend to be more efficiently priced, with smart money and the broader market more closely aligned.
How does smart money analysis work for world politics markets?
PolyPulse tracks thousands of wallets with a demonstrated history of profitable prediction market trades. For world politics markets, we analyze their position direction (YES/NO), size, and timing to generate a consensus signal. When smart money heavily favors one side, it often indicates an edge the broader market hasn't priced in.
What is the best world politics market to trade right now?
Markets are ranked by alpha score, which measures the gap between smart money consensus and current market pricing. The top-ranked world politics markets on this page have the highest alpha scores, indicating the largest potential edge. However, always consider liquidity, time to expiry, and your own analysis before trading.
How often is world politics market data updated?
Market data including prices, volume, smart money positions, and alpha scores are refreshed regularly to reflect the latest on-chain activity. Smart money consensus can shift as new positions are taken, so check back frequently for updated analysis.
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