US Politics Prediction Markets

US political prediction markets spanning elections, policy, legislation, and appointments. See where smart money stands on the biggest political questions.

Markets

949

Avg Alpha Score

9.1

Total Volume

$126.5M

With Smart Money Data

949

All Markets Sports(1011)US Politics(949)Other Markets(818)Business & Economics(744)Crypto & Web3(631)World Politics(603)Pop Culture(260)Science & Technology(144)Entertainment(140)

949 markets sorted by Alpha Score

Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?

YES 15%/NO 85%

Alpha 53Strong NO

$42K

US strikes Yemen by March 31, 2026?

YES 36%/NO 64%

Alpha 48Lean NO

$223K

Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?

YES 28%/NO 73%

Alpha 45Strong YES

$361K

Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?

YES 57%/NO 43%

Alpha 44Strong YES

$5K

Will Trump say "Drill Baby Drill" in March?

YES 68%/NO 33%

Alpha 43Strong YES

$6K

Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

YES 56%/NO 45%

Alpha 42Strong YES

$626K

Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

YES 13%/NO 87%

Alpha 41Strong NO

$11K

Will Trump say "Coward" in March?

YES 38%/NO 62%

Alpha 38Strong NO

$4K

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?

YES 50%/NO 50%

Alpha 37Lean NO

$276K

Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

YES 36%/NO 64%

Alpha 37Lean YES

$341K

Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31?

YES 4%/NO 96%

Alpha 37Strong NO

$695K

Will Jo Rae Perkins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?

YES 60%/NO 41%

Alpha 35Strong NO

$8K

Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by March 31?

YES 2%/NO 98%

Alpha 34Strong NO

$98K

Will Trump say "MIGA" or "Make Iran Great Again" this week? (March 15)

YES 18%/NO 83%

Alpha 34Strong NO

$2K

Will Trump say "Third term" in March?

YES 34%/NO 67%

Alpha 33Lean YES

$14K

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?

YES 72%/NO 28%

Alpha 33Lean YES

$106K

Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?

YES 29%/NO 71%

Alpha 32Strong NO

$102K

Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

YES 12%/NO 89%

Alpha 31Strong NO

$83K

Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?

YES 64%/NO 36%

Alpha 30Strong NO

$80K

Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?

YES 36%/NO 64%

Alpha 29Strong NO

$194

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

YES 20%/NO 81%

Alpha 29Strong NO

$544K

Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?

YES 29%/NO 71%

Alpha 29Strong YES

$29K

Will Raja Krishnamoorthi be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?

YES 59%/NO 42%

Alpha 29Lean YES

$56K

Insurrection Act invoked by June 30?

YES 14%/NO 86%

Alpha 29Strong NO

$61K

Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?

YES 6%/NO 94%

Alpha 29Strong NO

$1.5M

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

YES 28%/NO 72%

Alpha 28Lean YES

$5.7M

Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 15)

YES 17%/NO 84%

Alpha 26Strong NO

$11K

Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by March 31, 2026?

YES 5%/NO 96%

Alpha 26Strong NO

$131K

Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?

YES 7%/NO 94%

Alpha 25Strong NO

$1.2M

Will Doug Jones win the 2026 Alabama Governor Democratic primary election?

YES 91%/NO 9%

Alpha 25Strong YES

$6K

New Trump executive order to restrict voting by March 31?

YES 38%/NO 63%

Alpha 25Strong NO

$292

Will Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

YES 16%/NO 84%

Alpha 25Strong NO

$49K

Will Trump post "Spain" on Truth Social this week? (March 15)

YES 19%/NO 82%

Alpha 25Strong NO

$504

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

YES 36%/NO 65%

Alpha 25Strong YES

$679K

Will Saikat Chakrabarti receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?

YES 32%/NO 68%

Alpha 24Strong NO

$18K

Will Trump say "Pulitzer Prize" in March?

YES 93%/NO 7%

Alpha 24Strong YES

$1K

Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

YES 12%/NO 89%

Alpha 24Lean NO

$486K

Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?

YES 22%/NO 78%

Alpha 24Strong NO

$132K

Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?

YES 76%/NO 25%

Alpha 24Strong YES

$878

Epstein or Maxwell confirmed Mossad operatives by June 30?

YES 7%/NO 94%

Alpha 23Strong NO

$14K

Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30?

YES 28%/NO 73%

Alpha 23Strong NO

$22K

Will Janeese Lewis George win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary?

YES 51%/NO 49%

Alpha 23Strong YES

$5K

Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?

YES 33%/NO 67%

Alpha 23Strong NO

$112K

Will Trump say "Islamic Revolutionary Guard" or "Iranian Revolutionary Guard" this week? (March 15)

YES 13%/NO 88%

Alpha 23Strong NO

$445

Will Harvey Weinstein be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

YES 13%/NO 88%

Alpha 23Strong NO

$14K

Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?

YES 27%/NO 74%

Alpha 22Strong NO

$32K

Will Jean-Luc Moudenc be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 2026 Toulouse municipal election?

YES 49%/NO 52%

Alpha 22Strong YES

$191K

Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate advance to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary?

YES 61%/NO 40%

Alpha 22Strong NO

$19K

Trump approval Up or Down this week?

YES 40%/NO 61%

Alpha 22Strong YES

$15K

GOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by March 31, 2026?

YES 4%/NO 96%

Alpha 22Strong NO

$26K

Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?

YES 11%/NO 90%

Alpha 22Strong NO

$260K

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

YES 9%/NO 92%

Alpha 21Strong NO

$21K

Epstein "I beat Bush" Email unredacted by March 31?

YES 8%/NO 92%

Alpha 21Strong YES

$29K

Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026?

YES 37%/NO 63%

Alpha 20Strong NO

$4K

Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election?

YES 94%/NO 6%

Alpha 20Strong YES

$70K

U.S. Congress member out over Epstein files by April 30?

YES 6%/NO 94%

Alpha 20Strong NO

$6K

Will the DHS shutdown end between March 24-27, 2026?

YES 16%/NO 84%

Alpha 19Strong YES

$39K

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

YES 52%/NO 49%

Alpha 19Lean YES

$306K

Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

YES 39%/NO 61%

Alpha 19Strong NO

$29K

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

YES 91%/NO 10%

Alpha 19Strong YES

$86K

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

YES 38%/NO 62%

Alpha 19Lean YES

$5.6M

Will Andy Barr be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?

YES 50%/NO 51%

Alpha 19Strong YES

$5K

Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?

YES 28%/NO 72%

Alpha 18Strong NO

$30K

Will Bill Cassidy be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?

YES 13%/NO 87%

Alpha 18Strong YES

$15K

Will Trump nationalize elections?

YES 27%/NO 74%

Alpha 18Strong NO

$11K

Will Noam Chomsky be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

YES 9%/NO 92%

Alpha 18Strong NO

$23K

Trump out as President by June 30?

YES 7%/NO 94%

Alpha 18Strong NO

$79K

Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 40.0 on March 20, 2026?

YES 19%/NO 81%

Alpha 18Strong NO

$2K

Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026?

YES 56%/NO 45%

Alpha 18Strong YES

$7K

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

YES 10%/NO 90%

Alpha 17Lean NO

$29.7M

Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

YES 49%/NO 52%

Alpha 17Strong YES

$4K

Will Trump say "Regime change" this week? (March 15)

YES 46%/NO 55%

Alpha 17Lean NO

$7K

Will Trump post "Stupid" on Truth Social this week? (March 15)

YES 45%/NO 56%

Alpha 17Strong NO

$3K

Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?

YES 43%/NO 57%

Alpha 17Strong NO

$2K

Will Kevin Spacey be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

YES 9%/NO 92%

Alpha 17Strong NO

$18K

Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?

YES 27%/NO 74%

Alpha 16Strong NO

$12K

Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

YES 9%/NO 92%

Alpha 16Strong NO

$6K

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

YES 77%/NO 24%

Alpha 16Strong YES

$89K

Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be below 600,000 voters?

YES 35%/NO 65%

Alpha 16Strong NO

$431

Will Trump say "Churchill" this week? (March 15)

YES 10%/NO 91%

Alpha 16Strong NO

$933

Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

YES 15%/NO 85%

Alpha 16Strong YES

$85K

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?

YES 3%/NO 97%

Alpha 16Strong YES

$314K

Will Eric Swalwell advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

YES 70%/NO 31%

Alpha 16Strong NO

$10K

Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election?

YES 62%/NO 38%

Alpha 16Strong NO

$2K

Insurrection Act invoked by March 31?

YES 3%/NO 97%

Alpha 16Lean NO

$277K

Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma?

YES 66%/NO 34%

Alpha 16Strong YES

$1K

Will Darren Bailey win the 2026 Illinois Governor Republican primary election?

YES 96%/NO 4%

Alpha 16Lean NO

$33K

Will Trump issue a Gold Card by March 31?

YES 3%/NO 97%

Alpha 16Strong NO

$161K

Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?

YES 49%/NO 51%

Alpha 16Strong YES

$31K

Trump Media x TAE Technologies merger closed by March 31?

YES 5%/NO 96%

Alpha 16Strong NO

$12K

Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?

YES 20%/NO 80%

Alpha 16Strong NO

$1K

Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?

YES 59%/NO 42%

Alpha 15Strong YES

$17K

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

YES 25%/NO 76%

Alpha 15Lean NO

$1.9M

Will Trump visit China by April 30?

YES 87%/NO 13%

Alpha 15Lean YES

$879K

Will Trump talk to Kim Jong Un in March?

YES 6%/NO 94%

Alpha 15Strong NO

$11K

Will Trump say "Aliens are Real" in March?

YES 4%/NO 96%

Alpha 15Strong NO

$4K

Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat?

YES 62%/NO 39%

Alpha 15Strong YES

$4K

Will Trump meet with Reza Pahlavi in March 2026?

YES 11%/NO 89%

Alpha 14Strong NO

$174

Will Trump say "War On Fraud" in March?

YES 63%/NO 37%

Alpha 14Strong YES

$45

Will Trump say "Golf" or "Golfer" this week? (March 15)

YES 25%/NO 76%

Alpha 14Strong NO

$1K

Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

YES 9%/NO 91%

Alpha 14Lean NO

$231K

Will Trump meet with Lula da Silva in 2026?

YES 78%/NO 22%

Alpha 14Strong YES

$6K

Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

YES 62%/NO 38%

Alpha 14Strong NO

$72K

Will Juliana Stratton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?

YES 42%/NO 59%

Alpha 14Lean YES

$48K

Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in March?

YES 59%/NO 42%

Alpha 14Strong YES

$1K

Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

YES 68%/NO 33%

Alpha 14Strong YES

$12K

Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?

YES 16%/NO 84%

Alpha 14Lean NO

$112K

Will Trump meet with Satya Nadella in March 2026?

YES 13%/NO 87%

Alpha 14Strong YES

$25K

Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on March 14?

YES 38%/NO 62%

Alpha 14Strong YES

$665

Will the DHS shutdown end between March 28-31, 2026?

YES 6%/NO 94%

Alpha 14Strong YES

$20K

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?

YES 32%/NO 68%

Alpha 14Lean NO

$252K

Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?

YES 45%/NO 55%

Alpha 14Strong NO

$9K

Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

YES 4%/NO 96%

Alpha 13Lean YES

$372K

Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by March 31?

YES 2%/NO 98%

Alpha 13Strong YES

$73K

Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

YES 12%/NO 88%

Alpha 13Strong YES

$14K

Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

YES 3%/NO 97%

Alpha 13Strong YES

$47K

Will the Republican Party win the NV-02 House seat?

YES 72%/NO 28%

Alpha 13Strong YES

$6K

Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

YES 34%/NO 66%

Alpha 13Strong YES

$2K

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

YES 28%/NO 73%

Alpha 13Strong NO

$39K

Weed rescheduled by June 30?

YES 34%/NO 66%

Alpha 13Strong NO

$7K

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

YES 7%/NO 93%

Alpha 13Strong YES

$20K

Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

YES 6%/NO 94%

Alpha 13Strong YES

$222K

Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?

YES 17%/NO 84%

Alpha 13Strong NO

$8K

Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

YES 36%/NO 64%

Alpha 13Strong YES

$12K

Will Trump say "Peanut" this week? (March 15)

YES 13%/NO 87%

Alpha 13Strong NO

$1K

Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

YES 38%/NO 63%

Alpha 13Lean NO

$522K

Zohran Mamdani citizenship revoked before 2027?

YES 9%/NO 91%

Alpha 13Strong NO

$19K

Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged?

YES 4%/NO 96%

Alpha 13Lean NO

$656K

Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?

YES 84%/NO 17%

Alpha 12Strong YES

$29K

Will Ghislaine Maxwell Testify to Congress about Epstein?

YES 7%/NO 94%

Alpha 12Strong NO

$5K

Will Franck Allisio win the Marseille mayor election?

YES 10%/NO 90%

Alpha 12Strong YES

$41K

Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?

YES 26%/NO 75%

Alpha 12Strong YES

$261K

Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?

YES 25%/NO 75%

Alpha 12Strong YES

$17K

Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

YES 9%/NO 92%

Alpha 12Strong YES

$7K

Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

YES 3%/NO 97%

Alpha 12Strong YES

$6.1M

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?

YES 67%/NO 33%

Alpha 12Strong NO

$52K

Will Trump post "God Bless America" on Truth Social this week? (March 15)

YES 49%/NO 52%

Alpha 12Strong NO

$251

Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?

YES 13%/NO 87%

Alpha 12Strong NO

$15K

Will Steve Marshall be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?

YES 17%/NO 83%

Alpha 12Strong YES

$5K

Will Therese Terlaje win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election?

YES 59%/NO 42%

Alpha 12Strong YES

$1K

Will Trump post "Peace in the Middle East" on Truth Social this week? (March 15)

YES 42%/NO 58%

Alpha 12Strong NO

$253

Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?

YES 32%/NO 69%

Alpha 12Strong YES

$116K

Will Ro Khanna advance from the CA-17 primary?

YES 94%/NO 6%

Alpha 11Strong YES

$7K

Tim Walz charged by March 31, 2026?

YES 3%/NO 97%

Alpha 11Lean NO

$324K

Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?

YES 8%/NO 92%

Alpha 11Strong NO

$142K

Will John Fetterman vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?

YES 30%/NO 71%

Alpha 11Strong YES

$2K

Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

YES 26%/NO 74%

Alpha 11Strong NO

$15K

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

YES 39%/NO 61%

Alpha 11Strong YES

$51K

Will Click Bishop advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?

YES 48%/NO 52%

Alpha 11Strong NO

$40K

Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2026?

YES 73%/NO 28%

Alpha 11Strong YES

$3K

Will Daniel Cameron be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?

YES 14%/NO 86%

Alpha 11Strong YES

$6K

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

YES 85%/NO 16%

Alpha 11Lean YES

$1.9M

Will Christine Drazan win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?

YES 39%/NO 61%

Alpha 11Lean NO

$14K

Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country?

YES 10%/NO 90%

Alpha 11Strong YES

$365K

Will the Republican Party win the WA-05 House seat?

YES 76%/NO 24%

Alpha 11Strong YES

$3K

Weed rescheduled by December 31?

YES 57%/NO 43%

Alpha 11Strong YES

$729

Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?

YES 71%/NO 30%

Alpha 11Strong NO

$16K

Epstein client list released by June 30?

YES 13%/NO 88%

Alpha 11Lean NO

$433K

Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?

YES 59%/NO 41%

Alpha 10Strong NO

$37K

No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027

YES 12%/NO 89%

Alpha 10Lean YES

$128K

Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

YES 18%/NO 83%

Alpha 10Strong YES

$5K

Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?

YES 49%/NO 52%

Alpha 10Lean NO

$36K

Will the DHS shutdown end between March 16-19, 2026?

YES 4%/NO 96%

Alpha 10Strong YES

$16K

Will Josh Turek be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa?

YES 61%/NO 40%

Alpha 10Strong NO

$2K

Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?

YES 50%/NO 50%

Alpha 10Strong NO

$23K

Will Hope Scheppelman be the Republican nominee for CO-03?

YES 43%/NO 57%

Alpha 10Strong YES

$1K

Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?

YES 39%/NO 61%

Alpha 10Strong NO

$27K

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

YES 17%/NO 83%

Alpha 10Lean YES

$379K

Will Trump post "Epic Fury" on Truth Social this week? (March 15)

YES 39%/NO 62%

Alpha 10Strong YES

$5K

Will the DHS shutdown end between March 20-23, 2026?

YES 3%/NO 97%

Alpha 10Strong YES

$17K

Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2026?

YES 20%/NO 81%

Alpha 10Strong NO

$5K

Will Brinker Harding be the Republican nominee for NE-02?

YES 92%/NO 8%

Alpha 10Strong NO

$3K

Will Trump say "Banana Republic" in March?

YES 8%/NO 93%

Alpha 10Strong NO

$607

Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?

YES 11%/NO 89%

Alpha 10Strong NO

$4K

Will John Hickenlooper be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado?

YES 76%/NO 24%

Alpha 10Strong YES

$3K

Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?

YES 78%/NO 23%

Alpha 10Strong NO

$5K

Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

YES 46%/NO 55%

Alpha 10Strong YES

$19K

Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027?

YES 14%/NO 87%

Alpha 10Strong NO

$51K

Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

YES 44%/NO 56%

Alpha 10Lean YES

$371K

Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

YES 13%/NO 88%

Alpha 9Strong YES

$6K

Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?

YES 4%/NO 96%

Alpha 9Strong NO

$231K

US civil war before 2027?

YES 8%/NO 92%

Alpha 9Strong NO

$119K

Will Trump say "Easter" in March?

YES 78%/NO 23%

Alpha 9Strong NO

$2K

Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?

YES 84%/NO 16%

Alpha 9Strong YES

$14K

Will Trump say "UFC Fight" in March?

YES 30%/NO 71%

Alpha 9Lean NO

$549

Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?

YES 63%/NO 37%

Alpha 9Strong YES

$3K

Will Dan Frei be the Republican nominee for NE-02?

YES 7%/NO 93%

Alpha 9Strong YES

$2K

Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026?

YES 30%/NO 70%

Alpha 9Strong YES

$11K

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

YES 48%/NO 52%

Alpha 9Lean YES

$949K

Will Jacob Ryan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oregon?

YES 2%/NO 98%

Alpha 9Lean YES

$2K

Will Chris Pappas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?

YES 89%/NO 12%

Alpha 9Strong YES

$4K

Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in March 2026?

YES 42%/NO 58%

Alpha 9Lean NO

$41K

Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027?

YES 8%/NO 92%

Alpha 9Strong NO

$40K

Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?

YES 16%/NO 85%

Alpha 9Lean YES

$10K

Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden before 2027?

YES 24%/NO 76%

Alpha 9Strong NO

$1K

Will Trump say "N Word" in March?

YES 5%/NO 95%

Alpha 9Lean YES

$18K

Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?

YES 76%/NO 25%

Alpha 8Strong YES

$3K

Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30?

YES 18%/NO 83%

Alpha 8Lean YES

$7K

Will Jace Yarbrough be the Republican Nominee for TX-32?

YES 95%/NO 5%

Alpha 8Lean NO

$17K

Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?

YES 40%/NO 60%

Alpha 8Lean NO

$273K

Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?

YES 13%/NO 88%

Alpha 8Strong NO

$37K

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

YES 4%/NO 96%

Alpha 8Strong YES

$20K

Will the Republican Party win the PA-16 House seat?

YES 86%/NO 14%

Alpha 8Strong YES

$3K

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

YES 5%/NO 95%

Alpha 8Strong YES

$23K

Will Jason Esteves win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?

YES 20%/NO 80%

Alpha 8Strong YES

$6K

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

YES 7%/NO 93%

Alpha 8Strong YES

$21K

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

YES 6%/NO 95%

Alpha 8Strong YES

$21K

Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?

YES 42%/NO 59%

Alpha 8Strong YES

$41K

Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

YES 5%/NO 95%

Alpha 8Strong YES

$20K

Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

YES 24%/NO 76%

Alpha 8Strong YES

$92K

Will Jeff Colyer win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?

YES 51%/NO 49%

Alpha 8Strong YES

$20K

Will Trump sue Trevor Noah by March 31?

YES 3%/NO 97%

Alpha 8Lean NO

$41K

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

YES 9%/NO 92%

Alpha 8Strong YES

$19K

Will Bernie endorse Kshama Sawant for WA-09 by Nov 2 2026 ET?

YES 16%/NO 84%

Alpha 8Strong NO

$11K

SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026?

YES 56%/NO 44%

Alpha 8Strong YES

$4K

Will Trump’s approval rating be between 41.0 and 41.4 on March 20, 2026?

YES 23%/NO 77%

Alpha 8Strong YES

$451

Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?

YES 25%/NO 76%

Alpha 8Strong NO

$125

Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

YES 5%/NO 95%

Alpha 8Strong YES

$295K

Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in March 2026?

YES 2%/NO 98%

Alpha 8Strong YES

$18K

Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be between 36 and 39 inclusive?

YES 42%/NO 58%

Alpha 7Strong NO

$2K

Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

YES 3%/NO 97%

Alpha 7Strong YES

$20K

Trump out as President before 2027?

YES 16%/NO 84%

Alpha 7Lean NO

$4.5M

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

YES 16%/NO 85%

Alpha 7Lean YES

$1.9M

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

YES 3%/NO 97%

Alpha 7Strong YES

$24K

Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in March 2026?

YES 15%/NO 85%

Alpha 7Lean YES

$30K

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

YES 4%/NO 96%

Alpha 7Strong YES

$177K

Will the Republican Party win the IL-16 House seat?

YES 88%/NO 13%

Alpha 7Strong YES

$2K

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

YES 3%/NO 97%

Alpha 7Strong YES

$20K

Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in March 2026?

YES 5%/NO 95%

Alpha 7Lean YES

$17K

Will Charity Clark win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election?

YES 31%/NO 70%

Alpha 7Strong NO

$44K

Trump declares election interference national emergency?

YES 32%/NO 69%

Alpha 7Lean NO

$129K

Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?

YES 10%/NO 91%

Alpha 7Lean NO

$267K

Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?

YES 95%/NO 5%

Alpha 7Lean YES

$1.3M

Will Jeff Merkley be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oregon?

YES 96%/NO 5%

Alpha 7Strong YES

$8K

Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?

YES 44%/NO 56%

Alpha 7Strong YES

$11K

Will Jon Bonck be the Republican Nominee for TX-38?

YES 94%/NO 6%

Alpha 7Lean NO

$16K

Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in March 2026?

YES 5%/NO 95%

Alpha 7Lean YES

$24K

Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia?

YES 5%/NO 95%

Alpha 7Strong YES

$212K

Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?

YES 26%/NO 75%

Alpha 7Strong YES

$5K

Will Trump post "Wall Street" on Truth Social this week? (March 15)

YES 34%/NO 66%

Alpha 7Strong YES

$396

Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?

YES 50%/NO 50%

Alpha 7Lean YES

$26K

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

YES 17%/NO 84%

Alpha 7Lean NO

$8.9M

Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027?

YES 6%/NO 94%

Alpha 7Strong NO

$12K

Will Sara Rodriguez win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?

YES 28%/NO 72%

Alpha 7Strong NO

$5K

Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?

YES 24%/NO 76%

Alpha 7Strong YES

$13K

Will Trump talk to Reza Pahlavi in March?

YES 10%/NO 90%

Alpha 7Lean YES

$17K

US congress stock trading ban before 2027?

YES 19%/NO 82%

Alpha 7Strong YES

$16K

Will Gina Viola win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

YES 3%/NO 97%

Alpha 7Strong YES

$9K

Will Sherrod Brown be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Ohio?

YES 96%/NO 4%

Alpha 7Strong YES

$2K

Will Rick Caruso win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

YES 2%/NO 98%

Alpha 6Strong YES

$336K

Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?

YES 80%/NO 21%

Alpha 6Strong NO

$18K

Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027?

YES 36%/NO 65%

Alpha 6Lean NO

$42K

Will Josh Tenorio win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election?

YES 24%/NO 76%

Alpha 6Strong NO

$7K

Will the Republican Party win the SC-04 House seat?

YES 88%/NO 13%

Alpha 6Strong YES

$7K

Will John Thune announce a presidential run before 2027?

YES 12%/NO 88%

Alpha 6Strong NO

$2K

Will the Republican Party win the MS-03 House seat?

YES 94%/NO 7%

Alpha 6Strong YES

$4K

Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?

YES 3%/NO 97%

Alpha 6Strong YES

$139K

Bill Clinton divorce by June 30?

YES 2%/NO 98%

Alpha 6Strong NO

$91K

Will Troy Green be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma?

YES 11%/NO 90%

Alpha 6Strong YES

$2K

Will Trump’s approval rating be between 41.5 and 41.9 on March 20, 2026?

YES 9%/NO 92%

Alpha 6Strong YES

$413

Will Larry Rhoden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?

YES 10%/NO 91%

Alpha 6Strong NO

$3K

Will Mike Rogers win the Republican Primary for U.S. Senate in Michigan?

YES 94%/NO 6%

Alpha 6Strong YES

$2K

Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?

YES 2%/NO 98%

Alpha 6Lean NO

$3.6M

Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?

YES 14%/NO 86%

Alpha 6Lean NO

$15K

Will the Republican Party win the FL-08 House seat?

YES 85%/NO 16%

Alpha 6Strong YES

$2K

Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027?

YES 13%/NO 88%

Alpha 6Strong NO

$3K

Will Trump and Putin meet next in Switzerland?

YES 3%/NO 98%

Alpha 6Strong YES

$110K

Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States?

YES 5%/NO 95%

Alpha 6Strong YES

$41K

Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?

YES 25%/NO 75%

Alpha 6Strong YES

$13K

Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?

YES 2%/NO 98%

Alpha 6Strong YES

$38K

Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?

YES 4%/NO 96%

Alpha 6Strong NO

$15K

Will Kevin Hern replace Markwayne Mullin as United States Senator from Oklahoma?

YES 12%/NO 88%

Alpha 6Strong NO

$2K

Will Ted Cruz announce a presidential run before 2027?

YES 13%/NO 87%

Alpha 6Strong NO

$10K

Will the Republican Party win the OH-14 House seat?

YES 85%/NO 16%

Alpha 6Strong YES

$3K

Will Tom Sell be the Republican Nominee for TX-19?

YES 73%/NO 27%

Alpha 6Lean NO

$41K

Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures?

YES 28%/NO 73%

Alpha 6Lean NO

$101K

Will the US strike 6 countries in 2026?

YES 9%/NO 91%

Alpha 6Strong YES

$397K

Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026?

YES 18%/NO 82%

Alpha 6Strong YES

$8K

Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?

YES 24%/NO 77%

Alpha 6Lean YES

$4K

Will Trump say "Low Energy" in March?

YES 21%/NO 79%

Alpha 6Lean NO

$2K

Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in March 2026?

YES 6%/NO 94%

Alpha 5Strong NO

$18K

Will Richard Branson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

YES 17%/NO 83%

Alpha 5Lean NO

$16K

Will Otto Ritter win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?

YES 21%/NO 79%

Alpha 5Lean NO

$30K

Will Amy McGrath be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?

YES 13%/NO 88%

Alpha 5Strong NO

$1K

Will Michael Jackson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

YES 3%/NO 97%

Alpha 5Lean YES

$23K

2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 50% by March 31?

YES 93%/NO 7%

Alpha 5Lean YES

$32K

Will the US strike 15 or more countries in 2026?

YES 2%/NO 98%

Alpha 5Strong YES

$48K

Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?

YES 79%/NO 21%

Alpha 5Lean YES

$57K

Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 42.0 on March 20, 2026?

YES 8%/NO 93%

Alpha 5Strong YES

$552

Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

YES 3%/NO 97%

Alpha 5Strong NO

$2K

Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?

YES 25%/NO 75%

Alpha 5Lean NO

$274K

Will David Brock Smith be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?

YES 5%/NO 95%

Alpha 5Strong YES

$903

Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?

YES 85%/NO 15%

Alpha 5Strong NO

$9K

Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in March 2026?

YES 8%/NO 92%

Alpha 5Strong YES

$2K

Will Will Boyd win the 2026 Alabama Governor Democratic primary election?

YES 2%/NO 98%

Alpha 5Strong NO

$4K

Will the Republican Party win the NE-01 House seat?

YES 80%/NO 20%

Alpha 5Strong YES

$3K

Will Roy Cooper announce a Presidential run before 2027?

YES 7%/NO 94%

Alpha 5Strong NO

$3K

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2027?

YES 21%/NO 80%

Alpha 5Strong YES

$18K

Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?

YES 49%/NO 52%

Alpha 5Lean NO

$32K

Will the Democrats win the Rhode Island Senate race in 2026?

YES 91%/NO 10%

Alpha 5Strong YES

$3K

Will Ashley Hinson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Iowa?

YES 96%/NO 5%

Alpha 5Strong NO

$3K

Will Bernie endorse Antonio Delgado for NY-Gov by Nov 2 2026 ET?

YES 6%/NO 94%

Alpha 5Strong NO

$13K

Will the Republican Party win the NC-06 House seat?

YES 85%/NO 16%

Alpha 5Strong YES

$2K

Will Adam Schwarze be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?

YES 17%/NO 83%

Alpha 4Strong YES

$5K

Will the Republican Party win the TX-21 House seat?

YES 89%/NO 12%

Alpha 4Strong YES

$2K

Will "Epstein" be said on the next episode of the Joe Rogan Experience?

YES 97%/NO 3%

Alpha 4Strong NO

$1K

Will the sender of the “I beat Bush” email to Epstein not be revealed in 2026?

YES 80%/NO 20%

Alpha 4Lean YES

$3K

Will Trump endorse Ken Paxton for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?

YES 11%/NO 89%

Alpha 4Lean YES

$40K

Will the Republican Party win the TX-26 House seat?

YES 88%/NO 13%

Alpha 4Strong YES

$2K

Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

YES 45%/NO 56%

Alpha 4Lean NO

$822K

Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026?

YES 7%/NO 93%

Alpha 4Strong YES

$11K

Will Perry Johnson win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?

YES 28%/NO 72%

Alpha 4Strong YES

$2K

Will the Republicans win the South Dakota governor race in 2026?

YES 95%/NO 5%

Alpha 4Strong YES

$3K

Will Trump pardon Julian Assange before 2027?

YES 8%/NO 92%

Alpha 4Strong NO

$1K

Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

YES 25%/NO 75%

Alpha 4Strong YES

$129K

Will Venezuela become 51st state?

YES 3%/NO 97%

Alpha 4Strong NO

$91K

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

YES 20%/NO 80%

Alpha 4Strong YES

$14K

Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?

YES 6%/NO 95%

Alpha 4Lean NO

$80K

Will the US strike 12 countries in 2026?

YES 3%/NO 97%

Alpha 4Strong YES

$7K

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

YES 20%/NO 81%

Alpha 4Lean NO

$1.1M

Foreign intervention in Gaza by April 30?

YES 15%/NO 85%

Alpha 4Lean NO

$14K

Will Republican House incumbents not win in between four and six nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?

YES 21%/NO 79%

Alpha 4Strong YES

$7K

Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?

YES 13%/NO 88%

Alpha 4Lean YES

$7K

Will the US strike 11 countries in 2026?

YES 5%/NO 95%

Alpha 4Strong YES

$7K

Will Trump say "Hat" this week? (March 15)

YES 31%/NO 70%

Alpha 4Lean YES

$2K

Epstein storage units raided in 2026?

YES 19%/NO 82%

Alpha 4Lean YES

$6K

Will Trump say "Judy Shelton" in March?

YES 5%/NO 96%

Alpha 4Lean NO

$1K

Will the Republican Party win the AL-01 House seat?

YES 93%/NO 8%

Alpha 4Strong YES

$3K

Will Shenna Bellows win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?

YES 8%/NO 92%

Alpha 4Strong YES

$4K

Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026?

YES 73%/NO 27%

Alpha 4Lean NO

$2K

Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison?

YES 16%/NO 85%

Alpha 4Lean YES

$11K

Will Betty Yee advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

YES 7%/NO 93%

Alpha 4Strong YES

$3K

Will Trump’s approval rating be between 41.0 and 41.4 on March 13, 2026?

YES 3%/NO 97%

Alpha 4Lean YES

$14K

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

YES 17%/NO 84%

Alpha 4Lean NO

$765K

Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?

YES 17%/NO 84%

Alpha 4Strong YES

$7K

Will the Democrats win the Kansas governor race in 2026?

YES 32%/NO 69%

Alpha 4Strong YES

$2K

Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?

YES 19%/NO 81%

Alpha 4Lean NO

$77K

Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition?

YES 3%/NO 97%

Alpha 4Lean YES

$205K

Will Jay-Z be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

YES 5%/NO 95%

Alpha 3Lean NO

$21K

Will Joseph Chaplik be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?

YES 6%/NO 94%

Alpha 3Lean YES

$7K

Will Antonio Delgado win the 2026 New York Democratic Gubernatorial Primary?

YES 3%/NO 98%

Alpha 3Strong YES

$8K

US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?

YES 4%/NO 96%

Alpha 3Lean NO

$45K

Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?

YES 84%/NO 17%

Alpha 3Strong NO

$2K

Will Susan Collins vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?

YES 35%/NO 66%

Alpha 3Strong NO

Will Jay Feely be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?

YES 77%/NO 24%

Alpha 3Strong NO

$3K

Will Trump post "Panican" on Truth Social this week? (March 15)

YES 28%/NO 72%

Alpha 3Strong NO

Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?

YES 7%/NO 94%

Alpha 3Lean NO

$502K

Will Trump post "Markwayne" or "Mullin" on Truth Social this week? (March 15)

YES 36%/NO 65%

Alpha 3Strong NO

Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison?

YES 7%/NO 93%

Alpha 3Strong YES

$19K

Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March?

YES 76%/NO 25%

Alpha 3Strong YES

Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?

YES 44%/NO 56%

Alpha 3Strong YES

$5K

Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026?

YES 16%/NO 85%

Alpha 3Lean NO

$5K

Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country?

YES 4%/NO 96%

Alpha 3Lean YES

$40K

Will Han Jun-ho win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?

YES 4%/NO 96%

Alpha 3Lean NO

$30K

Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?

YES 7%/NO 93%

Alpha 3Strong YES

$24K

Will Russia enter Orikhiv by March 31?

YES 5%/NO 96%

Alpha 3Lean NO

$86K

Will Trump say "Lonely" in March?

YES 42%/NO 58%

Alpha 3Strong NO

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31?

YES 5%/NO 95%

Alpha 3Lean NO

$181K

Will Trump say "Erika Kirk" in March?

YES 40%/NO 61%

Alpha 3Strong NO

Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 6.00% and 6.50%?

YES 97%/NO 3%

Alpha 3Strong NO

$33K

Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 41.0 on March 13, 2026?

YES 95%/NO 5%

Alpha 3Lean NO

$17K

Will the Republican Party win the NC-05 House seat?

YES 86%/NO 14%

Alpha 3Strong NO

$7K

Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?

YES 16%/NO 84%

Alpha 3Strong YES

$3K

Will George Clooney announce a Presidential run before 2027?

YES 9%/NO 92%

Alpha 3Strong NO

$3K

Will the Democrats win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?

YES 3%/NO 97%

Alpha 3Strong YES

$39K

Will Kari Lake be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?

YES 3%/NO 97%

Alpha 3Strong YES

$3K

Will Tim Walz resign by June 30?

YES 3%/NO 97%

Alpha 3Lean NO

$238K

Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?

YES 82%/NO 18%

Alpha 3Strong NO

$2K

Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?

YES 13%/NO 87%

Alpha 3Strong YES

$3K

Will Katie Porter advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

YES 27%/NO 73%

Alpha 3Strong NO

Will Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?

YES 18%/NO 82%

Alpha 3Strong YES

$2K

Will Charles Booker be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?

YES 85%/NO 16%

Alpha 3Strong NO

$3K

Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on March 13?

YES 5%/NO 96%

Alpha 3Strong NO

$1K

Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by March 31?

YES 3%/NO 97%

Alpha 3Lean NO

$45K

Will Trump say "Kennedy" this week? (March 15)

YES 25%/NO 75%

Alpha 3Lean NO

$2K

Will Thunder Parley advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

YES 2%/NO 98%

Alpha 3Strong YES

$10K

Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?

YES 3%/NO 97%

Alpha 3Strong NO

$6K

Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

YES 27%/NO 74%

Alpha 3Strong YES

$5K

Will Royce White be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?

YES 4%/NO 96%

Alpha 3Strong YES

$31K

Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?

YES 17%/NO 84%

Alpha 3Strong YES

$7K

Will Peter Attia be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

YES 5%/NO 95%

Alpha 3Lean YES

$7K

Will Trump deport 400-500k people?

YES 25%/NO 76%

Alpha 3Strong YES

$2K

Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?

YES 5%/NO 95%

Alpha 2Lean YES

$274K

Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?

YES 9%/NO 91%

Alpha 2Lean NO

$154K

Will Tom Brady announce a presidential run before 2027?

YES 9%/NO 92%

Alpha 2Strong YES

$6K

Will Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

YES 8%/NO 92%

Alpha 2Strong YES

$25K

Will Kostadin Kostadinov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

YES 3%/NO 97%

Alpha 2Strong YES

$915

Will the Republicans win the New Jersey Senate race in 2026?

YES 7%/NO 94%

Alpha 2Strong YES

$6K

Will Trump cap credit card interest rates by March 31, 2026?

YES 16%/NO 84%

Alpha 2Strong NO

Will the Republican Party win the CA-28 House seat?

YES 6%/NO 94%

Alpha 2Strong YES

$8K

Will the Democrats win the Oklahoma governor race in 2026?

YES 7%/NO 94%

Alpha 2Strong YES

$6K

Will Tommy Tuberville win the 2026 Alabama Governor Republican primary election?

YES 93%/NO 7%

Alpha 2Strong YES

Will Brandon Sowers be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?

YES 2%/NO 98%

Alpha 2Strong YES

$2K

Will the Republican Party hold exactly 28 or 29 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?

YES 2%/NO 98%

Alpha 2Strong YES

$5K

Will Dick Durbin vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?

YES 21%/NO 79%

Alpha 2Strong NO

Will the Democrats win the West Virginia Senate race in 2026?

YES 7%/NO 94%

Alpha 2Strong YES

$1K

Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

YES 9%/NO 92%

Alpha 2Strong YES

$712

Will the Republican Party win the IL-04 House seat?

YES 3%/NO 97%

Alpha 2Strong YES

$5K

Will Trump endorse any candidate for President before 2027?

YES 13%/NO 87%

Alpha 2Lean NO

$17K

Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?

YES 64%/NO 36%

Alpha 2Strong YES

Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in March 2026?

YES 9%/NO 91%

Alpha 2Strong YES

Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2026?

YES 3%/NO 97%

Alpha 2Strong YES

$20K

Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders announce a presidential run before 2027?

YES 12%/NO 89%

Alpha 2Strong YES

$3K

Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026?

YES 31%/NO 69%

Alpha 2Lean NO

$3K

Will Jair Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

YES 4%/NO 97%

Alpha 2Strong YES

$9K

Will Lisa Murkowski win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

YES 7%/NO 93%

Alpha 2Strong YES

$2K

Will Derrick Gallego be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?

YES 2%/NO 98%

Alpha 2Strong YES

$2K

Will the Republican Party win the NC-02 House seat?

YES 7%/NO 93%

Alpha 2Strong YES

$2K

Will Kenyan McDuffie win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary?

YES 32%/NO 69%

Alpha 2Strong NO

Will Mark Brnovich be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?

YES 2%/NO 98%

Alpha 2Strong YES

$2K

Will Bill Cosby be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

YES 5%/NO 96%

Alpha 2Strong NO

$7K

Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026?

YES 19%/NO 81%

Alpha 2Lean NO

$97K

Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?

YES 51%/NO 49%

Alpha 2Strong NO

Will Mike Ruoho be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?

YES 2%/NO 98%

Alpha 2Strong YES

$796

Will Trump post "Kristi" or "Noem" on Truth Social this week? (March 15)

YES 20%/NO 80%

Alpha 2Strong NO

Will the Republican Party win the CO-02 House seat?

YES 3%/NO 97%

Alpha 2Strong YES

$3K

Will Jamie Davis Jr. be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana?

YES 51%/NO 50%

Alpha 2Strong YES

Will 54 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

YES 25%/NO 75%

Alpha 2Strong YES

$168

Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?

YES 26%/NO 74%

Alpha 2Strong NO

Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in March 2026?

YES 8%/NO 93%

Alpha 2Strong NO

Will Ryan Dotson be the Republican Nominee for KY-06?

YES 46%/NO 54%

Alpha 2Strong YES

Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?

YES 75%/NO 25%

Alpha 2Lean NO

$66K

Will Les Wexner Testify to Congress about Epstein?

YES 64%/NO 36%

Alpha 2Strong YES

Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2026?

YES 5%/NO 95%

Alpha 2Strong YES

$7K

Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?

YES 31%/NO 69%

Alpha 2Lean YES

$102K

Will Rosen Zhelyazkov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

YES 13%/NO 88%

Alpha 2Strong YES

$3K

Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

YES 3%/NO 97%

Alpha 2Strong YES

$81K

Will Derek Merrin be the Republican nominee for OH-09?

YES 42%/NO 59%

Alpha 2Strong YES

Will Trump's approval rating hit 44% in 2026?

YES 23%/NO 78%

Alpha 2Strong YES

$2K

Will Treg Taylor win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

YES 11%/NO 90%

Alpha 2Strong YES

$2K

Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be between 24 and 27 inclusive?

YES 3%/NO 97%

Alpha 2Strong NO

$10K

Will Trump say "Big Fat Cat" in March?

YES 18%/NO 83%

Alpha 2Strong NO

Will Hillary Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

YES 3%/NO 97%

Alpha 2Lean NO

$36K

Will Chuck Schumer vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?

YES 28%/NO 72%

Alpha 2Strong NO

Will Ex-Prince Andrew Testify to Congress about Epstein?

YES 11%/NO 89%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will Bert Mizusawa be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?

YES 51%/NO 50%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will Lord Peter Mandelson Testify to Congress about Epstein?

YES 23%/NO 77%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026?

YES 54%/NO 47%

Alpha 1Strong YES

Will Alea Nadeem be the Republican nominee for OH-09?

YES 10%/NO 90%

Alpha 1Strong YES

Will the Republican Party win the OH-10 House seat?

YES 69%/NO 32%

Alpha 1Strong YES

Will Steven Tisch be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

YES 12%/NO 88%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will Jim Pillen win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primary election?

YES 94%/NO 6%

Alpha 1Strong YES

Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2026?

YES 36%/NO 65%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by March 31?

YES 12%/NO 89%

Alpha 1Lean YES

Will Gina Swoboda be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?

YES 3%/NO 97%

Alpha 1Strong YES

$4K

Will Tom Begich advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?

YES 80%/NO 21%

Alpha 1Strong YES

Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?

YES 74%/NO 26%

Alpha 1Strong YES

Will Anthony DiLorenzo be the Republican Nominee for NH-01?

YES 50%/NO 51%

Alpha 1Strong YES

Will Marjorie Taylor Greene announce a presidential run before 2027?

YES 9%/NO 92%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison?

YES 9%/NO 91%

Alpha 1Strong YES

$26K

Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts Senate race in 2026?

YES 95%/NO 6%

Alpha 1Strong YES

Will the Republican Party win the FL-04 House seat?

YES 84%/NO 16%

Alpha 1Strong YES

Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by March 31?

YES 4%/NO 96%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will Cory Booker be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Jersey?

YES 93%/NO 7%

Alpha 1Strong YES

Will EDEK win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives election?

YES 8%/NO 92%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will Bernie endorse Alan Grayson for FL-Sen Nov 2 2026 ET?

YES 9%/NO 92%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will Trump meet with Mark Zuckerberg in March 2026?

YES 14%/NO 86%

Alpha 1Strong YES

Will the Republican Party win the NC-11 House seat?

YES 70%/NO 30%

Alpha 1Strong YES

Will 60 or more of senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

YES 34%/NO 67%

Alpha 1Strong YES

Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 6?

YES 50%/NO 51%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will the Republican Party win the FL-07 House seat?

YES 71%/NO 30%

Alpha 1Strong YES

Will Erin Stewart win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Republican primary election?

YES 52%/NO 48%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be 2,700,000 voters or greater?

YES 8%/NO 93%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will Candace Owens announce a presidential run before 2027?

YES 45%/NO 56%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will Deb Haaland win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Democratic primary election?

YES 68%/NO 32%

Alpha 1Lean NO

Will Trump talk to Yoon Suk Yeol in March?

YES 3%/NO 97%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will the Republican Party win the FL-21 House seat?

YES 84%/NO 16%

Alpha 1Strong YES

Will Trump pardon Nicolas Maduro before 2027?

YES 13%/NO 88%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will Trump sue Michael Wolff by March 31?

YES 8%/NO 92%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will Tyler Kistner be the Republican Nominee for MN-02?

YES 44%/NO 56%

Alpha 1Lean YES

Will J.D. Vance announce a presidential run before 2027?

YES 19%/NO 82%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will the Republican Party win the IN-05 House seat?

YES 85%/NO 15%

Alpha 1Strong YES

Will the Republican Party win the TX-05 House seat?

YES 90%/NO 10%

Alpha 1Strong YES

Will Trump pardon Keonne Rodriguez before 2027?

YES 19%/NO 81%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will John Trobough be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?

YES 3%/NO 97%

Alpha 1Strong YES

$2K

Will the Republican Party win the GA-12 House seat?

YES 85%/NO 15%

Alpha 1Strong YES

Will the Republican Party win the WI-08 House seat?

YES 81%/NO 20%

Alpha 1Strong YES

Will Angus King vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?

YES 17%/NO 84%

Alpha 1Strong YES

Will Nicholas Finan advance from the CA-17 primary?

YES 8%/NO 93%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in March 2026?

YES 19%/NO 82%

Alpha 1Lean NO

Will Donald Trump visit Kansas in 2026?

YES 50%/NO 50%

Alpha 1Strong YES

Will Trump deport less than 200k people?

YES 6%/NO 94%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will Mike Pieciak win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election?

YES 27%/NO 73%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will Janak Joshi be the Republican nominee for Senate in Colorado?

YES 14%/NO 86%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will Sam McCown be the Republican Nominee for SC-01?

YES 15%/NO 85%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will Pam Bondi be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

YES 25%/NO 76%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will Matt Heilala advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?

YES 13%/NO 87%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will Josh Shapiro announce a Presidential run before 2027?

YES 7%/NO 94%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027?

YES 46%/NO 55%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?

YES 59%/NO 42%

Alpha 1Strong YES

Will Ron DeSantis announce a presidential run before 2027?

YES 14%/NO 87%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will Sam Bregman win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Democratic primary election?

YES 25%/NO 76%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will Helen Dalton win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?

YES 4%/NO 96%

Alpha 1Strong YES

$2K

Will the Republican Party win the NJ-02 House seat?

YES 43%/NO 57%

Alpha 1Strong YES

Will the Republican Party win the FL-25 House seat?

YES 35%/NO 66%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will David Sacks leave the Trump administration before 2027?

YES 44%/NO 56%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will Madison Sheahan be the Republican nominee for OH-09?

YES 24%/NO 76%

Alpha 1Strong YES

Will Trump pardon Roger Stone before 2027?

YES 35%/NO 66%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will Trump act to ban mail-in voting or voting machines by June 30?

YES 60%/NO 41%

Alpha 1Lean YES

Will Jermaine Johnson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic primary election?

YES 79%/NO 22%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will Trump post "Department of Defense" or "DoD" on Truth Social this week? (March 15)

YES 28%/NO 72%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will Trump talk to MrBeast in March?

YES 3%/NO 97%

Alpha 1Strong YES

Will the Republican Party win the MD-01 House seat?

YES 80%/NO 21%

Alpha 1Strong YES

Will the Democrats win the New Mexico governor race in 2026?

YES 87%/NO 14%

Alpha 1Strong YES

Will Thom Tillis vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?

YES 20%/NO 81%

Alpha 1Lean YES

Will Julie Stauch win the 2026 Iowa Governor Democratic primary election?

YES 4%/NO 97%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will the US strike 7 countries in 2026?

YES 23%/NO 77%

Alpha 1Strong YES

Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2026?

YES 54%/NO 47%

Alpha 1Strong YES

Will Marco Rubio announce a presidential run before 2027?

YES 8%/NO 92%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will Chael Sonnen win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?

YES 8%/NO 92%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will the Republican Party win the GA-01 House seat?

YES 85%/NO 15%

Alpha 1Strong YES

Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027?

YES 16%/NO 84%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?

YES 25%/NO 75%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will the Democrats win the Oregon governor race in 2026?

YES 83%/NO 17%

Alpha 1Strong YES

Will Joe Johnson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?

YES 9%/NO 91%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?

YES 3%/NO 98%

Alpha 1Lean NO

$54K

Will Trump pardon Martin Shkreli before 2027?

YES 9%/NO 92%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will Kendall Qualls win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?

YES 27%/NO 74%

Alpha 1Strong YES

Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?

YES 6%/NO 95%

Alpha 1Lean YES

$32K

Will the Republicans win the Connecticut governor race in 2026?

YES 8%/NO 93%

Alpha 1Strong YES

$1K

Will DIKO win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives election?

YES 6%/NO 94%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will Trump visit China by March 31?

YES 66%/NO 34%

Alpha 1Split

$1.4M

Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?

YES 71%/NO 30%

Alpha 1Strong YES

Will the Republican Party win the OH-15 House seat?

YES 71%/NO 30%

Alpha 1Strong YES

Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez before 2027?

YES 36%/NO 64%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will the Republican Party win the MN-08 House seat?

YES 79%/NO 22%

Alpha 1Strong YES

Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?

YES 24%/NO 76%

Alpha 1Strong YES

Will Mike Bouchard be the Republican Nominee for MI-10?

YES 52%/NO 48%

Alpha 1Strong YES

Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?

YES 61%/NO 39%

Alpha 1Strong YES

Will Zach Lahn win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?

YES 18%/NO 82%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma governor race in 2026?

YES 93%/NO 7%

Alpha 1Strong YES

Lisa Murkowski leaves the Republican Party in 2026?

YES 19%/NO 82%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will Paul LePage be the Republican Nominee for ME-02?

YES 92%/NO 9%

Alpha 1Lean NO

Will Trump meet with Dario Amodei in March 2026?

YES 10%/NO 90%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will Donald Trump visit Italy in 2026?

YES 57%/NO 43%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will Bernie Sanders vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?

YES 8%/NO 92%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?

YES 16%/NO 84%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?

YES 79%/NO 21%

Alpha 1Strong YES

Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in more than four nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?

YES 6%/NO 94%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026?

YES 10%/NO 90%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will Reilly Neill be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana?

YES 80%/NO 21%

Alpha 1Strong YES

Will Trump meet with Nicolás Maduro in 2026?

YES 13%/NO 88%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will Mayes Middleton win the Texas Republican primary runoff for Attorney General?

YES 78%/NO 23%

Alpha 1Strong YES

Will DNM (DEK) win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives election?

YES 8%/NO 92%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will Chip Roy win the Texas Republican primary runoff for Attorney General?

YES 18%/NO 82%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?

YES 12%/NO 89%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will Angus King III win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?

YES 13%/NO 87%

Alpha 1Strong YES

Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?

YES 76%/NO 25%

Alpha 1Strong YES

Will Maggie Hassan vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?

YES 23%/NO 78%

Alpha 1Strong YES

Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?

YES 14%/NO 86%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in 2026?

YES 66%/NO 34%

Alpha 1Strong YES

Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine in 2026?

YES 21%/NO 80%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Will Saxon Callahan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Jersey?

YES 5%/NO 95%

Alpha 1Strong NO

Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto before 2027?

YES 4%/NO 96%

Alpha 1Lean NO

$16K

Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

YES 17%/NO 83%

No ScoreSplit

$375K

Will the Republican Party win the OH-05 House seat?

YES 89%/NO 11%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Matthew Smith be the Republican Nominee for TX-19?

YES 2%/NO 98%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will Spencer Roach be the Republican nominee for FL-19?

YES 10%/NO 91%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will the Republican Party win the OK-04 House seat?

YES 95%/NO 6%

No ScoreStrong YES

Trump cabinet member out by March 31, 2026?

YES 90%/NO 10%

No ScoreSplit

$10K

Will the Republican Party win the MO-07 House seat?

YES 93%/NO 7%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will Bob Rommel be the Republican nominee for FL-19?

YES 2%/NO 98%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Trump's approval rating hit 20% in 2026?

YES 4%/NO 96%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will Casey Putsch win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election?

YES 5%/NO 95%

No ScoreLean NO

Will the Republicans win the New Mexico Senate race in 2026?

YES 3%/NO 97%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026?

YES 75%/NO 26%

No ScoreSplit

$35K

Will the Republican Party win the OH-11 House seat?

YES 7%/NO 93%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

YES 7%/NO 93%

No ScoreSplit

$117K

Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

YES 81%/NO 19%

No ScoreSplit

$229K

Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026?

YES 12%/NO 88%

No ScoreSplit

$10K

Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?

YES 14%/NO 86%

No ScoreSplit

$193K

Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?

YES 22%/NO 79%

No ScoreSplit

Will the Democrats win the Montana Senate race in 2026?

YES 11%/NO 89%

No ScoreSplit

$12K

Will Christopher Beardsley be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Delaware?

YES 3%/NO 97%

No ScoreSplit

Will Trump deport 200-300k people?

YES 15%/NO 85%

No ScoreSplit

Will Kyle Sweetser be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama?

YES 58%/NO 42%

No ScoreSplit

$6K

Will Ed Diehl win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?

YES 37%/NO 64%

No ScoreSplit

$3K

Will Rick Scott vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?

YES 36%/NO 65%

No ScoreSplit

Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon before 2027?

YES 18%/NO 82%

No ScoreSplit

Will Steve Bannon announce a presidential run before 2027?

YES 19%/NO 81%

No ScoreSplit

$6K

Will the Republican Party win the KS-04 House seat?

YES 90%/NO 11%

No ScoreSplit

Will the Republicans win the Minnesota governor race in 2026?

YES 7%/NO 93%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Karishma Manzur be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?

YES 5%/NO 96%

No ScoreSplit

$3K

Will JD Vance enter Iran by June 30?

YES 6%/NO 94%

No ScoreSplit

$5K

Will Luis Fernando Camacho win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?

YES 60%/NO 40%

No ScoreSplit

$50K

Will the Republican Party win the OH-04 House seat?

YES 92%/NO 8%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will Trump deport more than 1m people?

YES 3%/NO 97%

No ScoreSplit

Will Trump meet with King of Morocco Mohammed VI in March 2026?

YES 6%/NO 94%

No ScoreSplit

Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2026?

YES 9%/NO 91%

No ScoreSplit

$6K

Will Michaelangelo Hamilton be the Republican nominee for Senate in Florida?

YES 8%/NO 92%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will Karrin Taylor Robson win the 2026 Arizona Governor Republican primary election?

YES 3%/NO 97%

No ScoreSplit

Will Wes Moore announce a Presidential run before 2027?

YES 12%/NO 88%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will Alani Bankhead be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana?

YES 4%/NO 96%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will the Republican Party win the TX-11 House seat?

YES 91%/NO 9%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be between 28 and 31 inclusive?

YES 13%/NO 87%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Russell McAlmond be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?

YES 14%/NO 86%

No ScoreSplit

Will Chuck Smith be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?

YES 28%/NO 73%

No ScoreSplit

Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026?

YES 17%/NO 84%

No ScoreSplit

$40K

Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be between 32 and 35 inclusive?

YES 6%/NO 95%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?

YES 69%/NO 32%

No ScoreSplit

Will Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?

YES 13%/NO 88%

No ScoreSplit

$3K

Will Trump deport 500-600k people?

YES 14%/NO 87%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2026?

YES 10%/NO 91%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before 2027?

YES 7%/NO 93%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 5?

YES 14%/NO 86%

No ScoreStrong YES

Foreign intervention in Gaza by March 31?

YES 3%/NO 97%

No ScoreSplit

$342K

Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in March 2026?

YES 7%/NO 94%

No ScoreSplit

$18K

Will Powell say "Supreme Court" during March press conference?

YES 39%/NO 62%

No ScoreSplit

$2K

Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?

YES 92%/NO 9%

No ScoreSplit

Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?

YES 24%/NO 77%

No ScoreSplit

Will Trump pardon Do Kwon before 2027?

YES 8%/NO 92%

No ScoreSplit

$15K

Will Tim Skelton be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?

YES 4%/NO 96%

No ScoreSplit

$8K

Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?

YES 83%/NO 17%

No ScoreSplit

$8K

Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027?

YES 5%/NO 95%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will the Republican Party win the NY-11 House seat?

YES 84%/NO 16%

No ScoreSplit

Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026?

YES 12%/NO 88%

No ScoreSplit

$2K

Will Woody Allen be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

YES 18%/NO 82%

No ScoreSplit

$8K

Will Josh Elliott win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Democratic primary election?

YES 4%/NO 96%

No ScoreSplit

Will the Republican Party win the WI-05 House seat?

YES 86%/NO 14%

No ScoreSplit

Will the Republican Party win the WA-04 House seat?

YES 86%/NO 14%

No ScoreLean NO

Will Jim Risch be the Republican nominee for Senate in Idaho?

YES 96%/NO 4%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will Tracie Burke be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana?

YES 5%/NO 95%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30?

YES 3%/NO 97%

No ScoreSplit

$50K

Will Scott Bottoms win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?

YES 6%/NO 94%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin before 2027?

YES 9%/NO 91%

No ScoreSplit

$6K

Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

YES 85%/NO 16%

No ScoreSplit

$13K

Will KOSP win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives election?

YES 4%/NO 96%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will the Republicans win the Wyoming Senate race in 2026?

YES 92%/NO 8%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will Trump pardon Roger Ver before 2027?

YES 14%/NO 87%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will the Republican Party win the IL-12 House seat?

YES 91%/NO 10%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?

YES 18%/NO 83%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will the Democrats win the Minnesota governor race in 2026?

YES 93%/NO 8%

No ScoreSplit

Will the Republican Party win the TX-01 House seat?

YES 93%/NO 8%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

YES 10%/NO 91%

No ScoreSplit

$7K

Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?

YES 73%/NO 28%

No ScoreSplit

$785K

ICE shooter charged by March 31?

YES 5%/NO 96%

No ScoreSplit

$566K

Will Jocelyn Benson win the 2026 Michigan Governor Democratic primary election?

YES 92%/NO 9%

No ScoreSplit

Will Duke Rodriguez win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?

YES 22%/NO 79%

No ScoreSplit

Will Jeffrey Kessler be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virginia?

YES 73%/NO 28%

No ScoreSplit

Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?

YES 68%/NO 33%

No ScoreLean YES

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

YES 4%/NO 96%

No ScoreSplit

$615K

Will Shelly deZevallos be the Republican Nominee for TX-38?

YES 3%/NO 98%

No ScoreLean NO

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

YES 7%/NO 94%

No ScoreSplit

$390K

Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?

YES 21%/NO 79%

No ScoreSplit

$71K

Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?

YES 16%/NO 85%

No ScoreSplit

$41K

Will the Republican Party win the NC-07 House seat?

YES 84%/NO 17%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will the Republican Party win the TX-12 House seat?

YES 85%/NO 15%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Jorge Malavet be the Republican nominee for FL-09?

YES 8%/NO 93%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Trump create a tariff dividend by March 31?

YES 2%/NO 98%

No ScoreSplit

$136K

Will Steve Lanier win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?

YES 3%/NO 97%

No ScoreLean NO

Will Robert Neuman win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?

YES 4%/NO 96%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Mamdani make NYC buses free by March 31?

YES 2%/NO 98%

No ScoreSplit

Will Zachary Shrewsbury be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virginia?

YES 20%/NO 81%

No ScoreSplit

Will Marni Sawicki win the 2026 Michigan Governor Democratic primary election?

YES 4%/NO 96%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

YES 67%/NO 33%

No ScoreSplit

$60K

Will Grégory Doucet win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?

YES 19%/NO 81%

No ScoreSplit

$32K

Will Allen Waters be the Republican nominee for Senate in Rhode Island?

YES 8%/NO 92%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will Elise Stefanik announce a presidential run before 2027?

YES 13%/NO 87%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?

YES 87%/NO 13%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Hillary Clinton announce a Presidential run before 2027?

YES 8%/NO 93%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Don Tracy be the Republican nominee for Senate in Illinois?

YES 93%/NO 7%

No ScoreSplit

$327K

Will the Democrats win the New Mexico Senate race in 2026?

YES 96%/NO 4%

No ScoreSplit

2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds under 10% by March 31?

YES 4%/NO 96%

No ScoreLean NO

Will the Republican Party win the IL-03 House seat?

YES 6%/NO 94%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will Byron Donalds announce a presidential run before 2027?

YES 7%/NO 94%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?

YES 14%/NO 86%

No ScoreSplit

$127K

Trump impeached by end of 2026?

YES 14%/NO 86%

No ScoreSplit

$576K

Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announce a presidential run before 2027?

YES 9%/NO 92%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will the Republican Party win the FL-16 House seat?

YES 83%/NO 18%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Abraham Enriquez be the Republican Nominee for TX-19?

YES 13%/NO 87%

No ScoreLean YES

Will the Democrats win the Virginia Senate race in 2026?

YES 92%/NO 9%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will the Republican Party win the TX-38 House seat?

YES 87%/NO 14%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Trump and Xi handshake last less than 2 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?

YES 3%/NO 97%

No ScoreSplit

$4K

Will Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?

YES 43%/NO 57%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Tom Tiffany win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Republican primary election?

YES 90%/NO 10%

No ScoreSplit

$4K

Will the Republican Party win the VA-06 House seat?

YES 47%/NO 54%

No ScoreLean YES

Will the Republican Party win the CA-20 House seat?

YES 91%/NO 9%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will the Democrats win the Hawaii governor race in 2026?

YES 94%/NO 7%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Cinde Warmington win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?

YES 79%/NO 22%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will the Republican Party win the TX-24 House seat?

YES 81%/NO 20%

No ScoreStrong NO

SBF released from custody in 2026?

YES 13%/NO 88%

No ScoreSplit

$263K

Will Trump meet with MrBeast in 2026?

YES 12%/NO 89%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Elise Stefanik win the 2026 New York Governor Republican primary election?

YES 3%/NO 98%

No ScoreLean NO

Will MrBeast announce a Presidential run before 2027?

YES 2%/NO 98%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Gwen Graham be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor?

YES 3%/NO 97%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will Trump pardon Himself before 2027?

YES 2%/NO 98%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will the Republican Party win the UT-01 House seat?

YES 15%/NO 85%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?

YES 30%/NO 71%

No ScoreSplit

$284K

Will the Republican Party win the MT-02 House seat?

YES 92%/NO 8%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will the Republican Party win the CA-17 House seat?

YES 3%/NO 97%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Atanas Atanasov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

YES 2%/NO 98%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will Donald Trump visit India in 2026?

YES 37%/NO 63%

No ScoreSplit

$5K

Will Mark Gordon win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?

YES 4%/NO 96%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Trump's approval rating hit 50% in 2026?

YES 8%/NO 92%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?

YES 18%/NO 82%

No ScoreSplit

Will Trump say "Hottest Nation" in March?

YES 30%/NO 70%

No ScoreSplit

$9K

Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31?

YES 16%/NO 85%

No ScoreSplit

$229K

Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in March 2026?

YES 8%/NO 92%

No ScoreSplit

$20K

Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in March 2026?

YES 14%/NO 86%

No ScoreSplit

$28K

Will Rand Paul announce a presidential run before 2027?

YES 7%/NO 93%

No ScoreSplit

Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in March 2026?

YES 61%/NO 39%

No ScoreSplit

$4K

Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?

YES 80%/NO 20%

No ScoreSplit

Will Kevin Hern be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oklahoma?

YES 81%/NO 20%

No ScoreSplit

$5K

Will Mark Smith be the Republican Nominee for SC-01?

YES 40%/NO 61%

No ScoreSplit

Will Trump say "Truth Social" in March?

YES 46%/NO 55%

No ScoreSplit

$5K

Will Jake Lang be the Republican nominee for Senate in Florida?

YES 2%/NO 98%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will Rahm Emanuel announce a Presidential run before 2027?

YES 11%/NO 90%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?

YES 3%/NO 98%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will the Republican Party win the MN-06 House seat?

YES 86%/NO 14%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will the Republicans win the Oregon governor race in 2026?

YES 12%/NO 89%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Trump say "Charlie Kirk" in March?

YES 33%/NO 67%

No ScoreSplit

$4K

Will Donald Trump visit New Jersey in 2026?

YES 88%/NO 12%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Elon Musk be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

YES 5%/NO 95%

No ScoreSplit

$64K

Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?

YES 81%/NO 19%

No ScoreSplit

$68K

Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?

YES 89%/NO 11%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will the Republican Party win the MI-09 House seat?

YES 90%/NO 11%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will the Republican Party win the AZ-06 House seat?

YES 36%/NO 65%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Kim Dong-yeon win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?

YES 29%/NO 71%

No ScoreSplit

$58K

Will the Republican Party win the TX-06 House seat?

YES 88%/NO 12%

No ScoreStrong YES

Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by March 31?

YES 6%/NO 94%

No ScoreSplit

$114K

Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?

YES 19%/NO 81%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will Alexander Vindman be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Florida?

YES 88%/NO 12%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will Kelly Ayotte win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Republican primary election?

YES 88%/NO 12%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

YES 28%/NO 72%

No ScoreSplit

$6K

Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026?

YES 10%/NO 90%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

YES 63%/NO 38%

No ScoreSplit

$273K

Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat?

YES 80%/NO 20%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Romeu Zema finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

YES 14%/NO 86%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will Aaron Ford win the 2026 Nevada Governor Democratic primary election?

YES 88%/NO 13%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?

YES 18%/NO 83%

No ScoreSplit

$133K

Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

YES 82%/NO 19%

No ScoreSplit

Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro in March?

YES 3%/NO 97%

No ScoreSplit

Will Ron Johnson vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?

YES 24%/NO 76%

No ScoreSplit

Will Trump say "Little Rocket Man" in March?

YES 12%/NO 89%

No ScoreSplit

Will the Republican Party win the FL-15 House seat?

YES 83%/NO 18%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

YES 49%/NO 52%

No ScoreSplit

$75K

Will Ty Masterson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?

YES 18%/NO 83%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

YES 37%/NO 64%

No ScoreSplit

$310K

Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?

YES 67%/NO 33%

No ScoreSplit

$29K

Phoenix: Billy Harris vs Adrian Mannarino

YES 74%/NO 26%

No ScoreSplit

$53K

Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?

YES 21%/NO 80%

No ScoreSplit

$4K

Will the Republican Party win the CA-29 House seat?

YES 8%/NO 93%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Trump post "Ass" on Truth Social this week? (March 15)

YES 11%/NO 90%

No ScoreSplit

$2K

Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

YES 31%/NO 69%

No ScoreSplit

$23K

Will Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Election?

YES 4%/NO 96%

No ScoreSplit

$60K

Will the Republican Party win the FL-02 House seat?

YES 83%/NO 17%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?

YES 31%/NO 70%

No ScoreLean NO

Will the Republicans win the Nebraska governor race in 2026?

YES 93%/NO 7%

No ScoreSplit

Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

YES 7%/NO 93%

No ScoreSplit

$42K

Will Zohran Mamdani announce a Presidential run before 2027?

YES 3%/NO 97%

No ScoreLean NO

Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2026?

YES 10%/NO 90%

No ScoreSplit

$50K

Will Trump cut corporate taxes before 2027?

YES 14%/NO 86%

No ScoreSplit

$15K

Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat?

YES 22%/NO 78%

No ScoreSplit

$8K

Will the Republican Party win the MA-05 House seat?

YES 6%/NO 95%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Madison Cawthorn be the Republican nominee for FL-19?

YES 8%/NO 92%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will the Republican Party win the CA-01 House seat?

YES 4%/NO 96%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will the Republican Party hold between 190 and 194 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

YES 12%/NO 88%

No ScoreStrong YES

ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31?

YES 3%/NO 97%

No ScoreSplit

$289K

Will Trump's approval rating hit 48% in 2026?

YES 5%/NO 95%

No ScoreStrong NO

2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 40% by March 31?

YES 11%/NO 89%

No ScoreSplit

$36K

Will Trump say "Liberation Day" in March?

YES 40%/NO 60%

No ScoreSplit

Will the Republican Party win the OK-05 House seat?

YES 88%/NO 12%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will the Democrats win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?

YES 8%/NO 93%

No ScoreSplit

Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?

YES 8%/NO 92%

No ScoreSplit

$202K

Will 50 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

YES 4%/NO 96%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026?

YES 90%/NO 11%

No ScoreLean NO

Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 2,400,000 and 2,700,000 voters?

YES 2%/NO 98%

No ScoreStrong NO

SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026?

YES 22%/NO 78%

No ScoreSplit

$918K

Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?

YES 20%/NO 80%

No ScoreLean NO

Will the Republican Party win the TN-08 House seat?

YES 93%/NO 8%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will Frank F. Blas Jr. win the 2026 Guam Governor Republican primary election?

YES 17%/NO 84%

No ScoreSplit

Will the Republican Party win the GA-10 House seat?

YES 87%/NO 14%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will the Republican Party win the OK-03 House seat?

YES 94%/NO 7%

No ScoreSplit

$3K

Will "Donald" or "Trump" be said on the next episode of the Joe Rogan Experience?

YES 97%/NO 3%

No ScoreSplit

$845

Will James Clark be the Republican Nominee for ME-02?

YES 9%/NO 91%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will the Republican Party win the AR-03 House seat?

YES 90%/NO 11%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Vicente Ada win the 2026 Guam Governor Republican primary election?

YES 77%/NO 24%

No ScoreLean YES

Will the Republican Party win the NY-22 House seat?

YES 13%/NO 88%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will the Republican Party win the IL-06 House seat?

YES 6%/NO 94%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will Casey Armitage be the Republican Nominee for MI-10?

YES 6%/NO 94%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will the Republican Party win the AR-01 House seat?

YES 94%/NO 6%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Jared Moskowitz be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Florida?

YES 6%/NO 94%

No ScoreSplit

Will the Republicans win the Tennessee governor race in 2026?

YES 91%/NO 9%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will the Republicans win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026?

YES 91%/NO 9%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?

YES 76%/NO 24%

No ScoreSplit

$288K

Will the Republicans win the Arkansas governor race in 2026?

YES 93%/NO 7%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will the Republican Party win the TN-03 House seat?

YES 93%/NO 8%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Jerri Green win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election?

YES 79%/NO 21%

No ScoreSplit

$22K

Will Bernie Sanders announce a Presidential run before 2027?

YES 8%/NO 93%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will the Republican Party win the FL-12 House seat?

YES 89%/NO 11%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will Tom Willis be the Republican nominee for Senate in West Virginia?

YES 5%/NO 95%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?

YES 78%/NO 23%

No ScoreSplit

$2K

Will Lee Zeldin leave the Trump administration before 2027?

YES 13%/NO 88%

No ScoreSplit

Will Boyko Borissov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

YES 6%/NO 94%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?

YES 75%/NO 25%

No ScoreSplit

$1.3M

Will Nancy Dahlstrom win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

YES 14%/NO 86%

No ScoreSplit

$47K

Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?

YES 47%/NO 54%

No ScoreSplit

$130K

Will Amy Klobuchar win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Democratic primary election?

YES 93%/NO 7%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will Trump deport 300-400k people?

YES 30%/NO 70%

No ScoreLean YES

Will Stephen Miller leave the Trump administration before 2027?

YES 27%/NO 73%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will Trump and Putin not meet?

YES 63%/NO 37%

No ScoreSplit

$495K

Will the Republican Party win the NE-02 House seat?

YES 18%/NO 83%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Matt Pinnell replace Markwayne Mullin as United States Senator from Oklahoma?

YES 21%/NO 79%

No ScoreSplit

$19K

Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

YES 23%/NO 77%

No ScoreSplit

$13K

Will Elizabeth Girard be the Republican Nominee for NH-01?

YES 5%/NO 95%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will the Democrats win the Delaware Senate race in 2026?

YES 92%/NO 9%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will the Republican Party win the CA-21 House seat?

YES 10%/NO 90%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Donald Trump Jr. announce a presidential run before 2027?

YES 9%/NO 91%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will Benoît Payan win the Marseille mayor election?

YES 89%/NO 12%

No ScoreSplit

$55K

Will the Republican Party win the FL-01 House seat?

YES 90%/NO 11%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will the Republican Party win the NY-09 House seat?

YES 5%/NO 96%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will the Republican Party win the MO-02 House seat?

YES 81%/NO 19%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will the Republican Party win the MA-04 House seat?

YES 7%/NO 93%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will the Republican Party win the TX-02 House seat?

YES 89%/NO 12%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will the Republican Party win the VA-01 House seat?

YES 31%/NO 69%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?

YES 70%/NO 30%

No ScoreSplit

$60K

Will Partido Popular (PP) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Election?

YES 95%/NO 5%

No ScoreSplit

$116K

Will Trump attend UFC 327?

YES 29%/NO 71%

No ScoreSplit

$3K

Will Trump meet with Sam Altman in March 2026?

YES 46%/NO 54%

No ScoreSplit

$2K

Will Deepak Chopra be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

YES 10%/NO 91%

No ScoreSplit

Will Donald Trump visit Hawaii in 2026?

YES 50%/NO 50%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will Paul Dans be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?

YES 14%/NO 87%

No ScoreSplit

$11K

Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% in 2026?

YES 93%/NO 7%

No ScoreSplit

Will Mike Kennealy win the 2026 Massachusetts Governor Republican primary election?

YES 13%/NO 87%

No ScoreSplit

$7K

Will Oprah Winfrey announce a Presidential run before 2027?

YES 11%/NO 90%

No ScoreSplit

$13K

Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?

YES 41%/NO 59%

No ScoreSplit

$7K

Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?

YES 57%/NO 43%

No ScoreSplit

$78K

Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?

YES 55%/NO 46%

No ScoreSplit

$236K

Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden before 2027?

YES 4%/NO 96%

No ScoreSplit

Will the Republican Party win the TX-17 House seat?

YES 84%/NO 17%

No ScoreSplit

Will Gwendolyn Beck be confirmed to be the sender of the “I beat Bush” email to Epstein in 2026?

YES 16%/NO 85%

No ScoreLean YES

Will Christy Davis be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?

YES 24%/NO 77%

No ScoreSplit

Will Trump's approval rating hit 30% in 2026?

YES 8%/NO 92%

No ScoreSplit

Will Deaglan McEachern win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?

YES 4%/NO 96%

No ScoreSplit

Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?

YES 87%/NO 14%

No ScoreSplit

$68K

Will the Republican Party win the WV-01 House seat?

YES 94%/NO 7%

No ScoreSplit

Will Ritesh Tandon advance from the CA-17 primary?

YES 16%/NO 84%

No ScoreSplit

Will Zach Wahls be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa?

YES 35%/NO 66%

No ScoreSplit

$3K

Will Michelle Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

YES 5%/NO 95%

No ScoreSplit

Will Chris Coons be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Delaware?

YES 94%/NO 6%

No ScoreSplit

Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

YES 19%/NO 81%

No ScoreSplit

Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?

YES 57%/NO 43%

No ScoreSplit

$65K

Will the Republican Party win the CA-03 House seat?

YES 6%/NO 94%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Connor Burbridge be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Rhode Island?

YES 11%/NO 90%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2027?

YES 9%/NO 91%

No ScoreSplit

Will Ha Phan advance from the CA-17 primary?

YES 10%/NO 90%

No ScoreSplit

Will the Republican Party win the TX-15 House seat?

YES 49%/NO 52%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

YES 49%/NO 52%

No ScoreSplit

$138K

Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

YES 75%/NO 26%

No ScoreSplit

$27K

Will Ivanka Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?

YES 9%/NO 92%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will the Republicans win the Delaware Senate race in 2026?

YES 8%/NO 93%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?

YES 57%/NO 43%

No ScoreSplit

Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?

YES 47%/NO 53%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will the Republican Party win the TX-36 House seat?

YES 88%/NO 13%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will the Republican Party win the FL-26 House seat?

YES 90%/NO 11%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Bernie Sanders vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?

YES 7%/NO 93%

No ScoreSplit

Will Jim Carlin be the Republican nominee for Senate in Iowa?

YES 2%/NO 98%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Joy Eakins win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?

YES 2%/NO 98%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will the Republican Party win the FL-17 House seat?

YES 86%/NO 14%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will the Republican Party win the NY-20 House seat?

YES 4%/NO 96%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30?

YES 7%/NO 93%

No ScoreSplit

$28K

Will Chris Dudley win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?

YES 22%/NO 78%

No ScoreSplit

Dutch House of Representatives dissolved in 2026?

YES 20%/NO 81%

No ScoreSplit

Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?

YES 83%/NO 17%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

YES 14%/NO 87%

No ScoreSplit

$62K

Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?

YES 62%/NO 39%

No ScoreSplit

Will any U.S. Senator enter Iran by June 30?

YES 10%/NO 91%

No ScoreSplit

$19K

Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in March?

YES 80%/NO 21%

No ScoreSplit

Will Trump launch a coin by December 31?

YES 18%/NO 83%

No ScoreSplit

$67K

Will Eric Barlow win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?

YES 21%/NO 79%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027?

YES 17%/NO 83%

No ScoreSplit

$13K

Will Trump resign before 2027?

YES 6%/NO 94%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes before 2027?

YES 7%/NO 93%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026?

YES 6%/NO 94%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will Steve Hershey win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?

YES 3%/NO 97%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will Stacy Garrity win the 2026 Pennsylvania Governor Republican primary election?

YES 93%/NO 7%

No ScoreSplit

Will Trump pardon Ryan Salame before 2027?

YES 25%/NO 76%

No ScoreLean NO

Will Trump be impeached by June 30?

YES 5%/NO 95%

No ScoreSplit

$158K

Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?

YES 4%/NO 96%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?

YES 12%/NO 89%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Stephen A. Smith announce a Presidential run before 2027?

YES 7%/NO 94%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will Tim Cyr win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election?

YES 5%/NO 95%

No ScoreSplit

Will Social Democrats win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?

YES 98%/NO 2%

No ScoreSplit

$77K

Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027?

YES 11%/NO 90%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will the Republican Party win the AR-04 House seat?

YES 93%/NO 7%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will the Republican Party win the MN-07 House seat?

YES 91%/NO 10%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will the Republican Party win the UT-04 House seat?

YES 90%/NO 10%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will the Republican Party win the AL-03 House seat?

YES 93%/NO 8%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Mark Kelly announce a Presidential run before 2027?

YES 20%/NO 80%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will Bernie endorse Zach Wahls for IA-Sen Nov 2 2026 ET?

YES 16%/NO 84%

No ScoreSplit

$13K

Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?

YES 69%/NO 31%

No ScoreStrong NO

2026 U.S. Senate Election: Democrats flip Republicans by March 31?

YES 92%/NO 9%

No ScoreSplit

$70K

Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027?

YES 36%/NO 64%

No ScoreLean NO

Weed rescheduled by March 31?

YES 3%/NO 97%

No ScoreSplit

$238K

Will Trump and Xi not shake hands during the day of their next meeting in 2026?

YES 4%/NO 96%

No ScoreSplit

$7K

Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?

YES 43%/NO 57%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will the Republican Party win the FL-03 House seat?

YES 87%/NO 14%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Betsy McCaughey win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Republican primary election?

YES 14%/NO 87%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will the Republican Party win the CA-26 House seat?

YES 6%/NO 95%

No ScoreStrong YES

2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds over 70% by March 31?

YES 3%/NO 97%

No ScoreSplit

Will 55 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

YES 23%/NO 77%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus?

YES 2%/NO 98%

No ScoreSplit

$151K

Will 49 or fewer senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

YES 5%/NO 96%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?

YES 16%/NO 85%

No ScoreSplit

$24K

Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?

YES 81%/NO 20%

No ScoreSplit

Will Jim Oberweis be the Republican nominee for FL-19?

YES 10%/NO 90%

No ScoreSplit

$2K

Will Ashley Kalus win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election?

YES 5%/NO 95%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will Anne Parelkar be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?

YES 3%/NO 97%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026?

YES 95%/NO 5%

No ScoreSplit

$26K

Will the Republicans win the West Virginia Senate race in 2026?

YES 93%/NO 7%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will Raymond McKay be the Republican nominee for Senate in Rhode Island?

YES 81%/NO 19%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Mark Baisley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Colorado?

YES 51%/NO 49%

No ScoreSplit

Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson announce a Presidential run before 2027?

YES 9%/NO 92%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will the Republican Party win the AZ-01 House seat?

YES 45%/NO 55%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will the Republican Party win the OH-02 House seat?

YES 91%/NO 10%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will Mark Lamb be the Republican nominee for AZ-05?

YES 87%/NO 14%

No ScoreSplit

Will the Republican Party win the CA-12 House seat?

YES 8%/NO 92%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30?

YES 4%/NO 96%

No ScoreSplit

$53K

Will Bernie endorse Dan Osborn for NE-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?

YES 44%/NO 56%

No ScoreLean NO

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?

YES 6%/NO 95%

No ScoreSplit

$27K

Will the Republican Party win the GA-14 House seat?

YES 91%/NO 10%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Mike Rounds be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Dakota?

YES 85%/NO 15%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2026?

YES 23%/NO 78%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will the Republican Party win the WI-06 House seat?

YES 85%/NO 15%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will the Republican Party hold between 195 and 199 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

YES 18%/NO 82%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will Sandy Spidel Neumann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?

YES 5%/NO 96%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will the Democrats win the Wyoming Senate race in 2026?

YES 8%/NO 93%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?

YES 14%/NO 86%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Trump pardon Eric Adams before 2027?

YES 14%/NO 86%

No ScoreStrong NO

Will the Republican Party win the FL-22 House seat?

YES 40%/NO 60%

No ScoreSplit

Will Kathy Hochul win the 2026 New York Democratic Gubernatorial Primary?

YES 93%/NO 7%

No ScoreSplit

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

YES 49%/NO 52%

No ScoreSplit

$497K

Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?

YES 65%/NO 35%

No ScoreSplit

$3K

Will Trump pardon Diddy before 2027?

YES 5%/NO 95%

No ScoreLean YES

Trump declassifies new UFO files by March 31?

YES 7%/NO 94%

No ScoreSplit

$40K

Will the Republican Party hold exactly 26 or 27 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?

YES 10%/NO 91%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Trump deport 600-700k people?

YES 4%/NO 96%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will the Republican Party win the LA-01 House seat?

YES 90%/NO 11%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Ted Dabrowski win the 2026 Illinois Governor Republican primary election?

YES 3%/NO 97%

No ScoreSplit

$6K

Will Rob Sand win the 2026 Iowa Governor Democratic primary election?

YES 95%/NO 5%

No ScoreLean YES

Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026?

YES 94%/NO 6%

No ScoreSplit

$36K

Will Ned Lamont win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Democratic primary election?

YES 92%/NO 9%

No ScoreStrong YES

Will Gina Raimondo announce a Presidential run before 2027?

YES 12%/NO 89%

No ScoreStrong NO

US Politics Markets FAQ

How many us politics prediction markets are available?

There are currently 949 us politics prediction markets being tracked and analyzed on PolyPulse. Each market includes smart money consensus data, alpha scoring, and opportunity assessment.

What is the average alpha score for us politics markets?

The average alpha score across us politics markets is 9.1 out of 100. Markets in this category tend to be more efficiently priced, with smart money and the broader market more closely aligned.

How does smart money analysis work for us politics markets?

PolyPulse tracks thousands of wallets with a demonstrated history of profitable prediction market trades. For us politics markets, we analyze their position direction (YES/NO), size, and timing to generate a consensus signal. When smart money heavily favors one side, it often indicates an edge the broader market hasn't priced in.

What is the best us politics market to trade right now?

Markets are ranked by alpha score, which measures the gap between smart money consensus and current market pricing. The top-ranked us politics markets on this page have the highest alpha scores, indicating the largest potential edge. However, always consider liquidity, time to expiry, and your own analysis before trading.

How often is us politics market data updated?

Market data including prices, volume, smart money positions, and alpha scores are refreshed regularly to reflect the latest on-chain activity. Smart money consensus can shift as new positions are taken, so check back frequently for updated analysis.

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US Politics Prediction Markets

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?

Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by March 31?

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Will Trump say "Bitcoin" in March?

Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?

US strikes Yemen by March 31, 2026?

Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?

Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?

Will Trump say "Drill Baby Drill" in March?

Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Will Trump say "Coward" in March?

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?

Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31?

Will Jo Rae Perkins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?

Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by March 31?

Will Trump say "MIGA" or "Make Iran Great Again" this week? (March 15)

Will Trump say "Third term" in March?

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?

Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?

Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?

Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?

Will Raja Krishnamoorthi be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?

Insurrection Act invoked by June 30?

Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 15)

Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by March 31, 2026?

Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?

Will Doug Jones win the 2026 Alabama Governor Democratic primary election?

New Trump executive order to restrict voting by March 31?

Will Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

Will Trump post "Spain" on Truth Social this week? (March 15)

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

Will Saikat Chakrabarti receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?

Will Trump say "Pulitzer Prize" in March?

Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?

Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?

Epstein or Maxwell confirmed Mossad operatives by June 30?

Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30?

Will Janeese Lewis George win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary?

Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Will Trump say "Islamic Revolutionary Guard" or "Iranian Revolutionary Guard" this week? (March 15)

Will Harvey Weinstein be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Will Jean-Luc Moudenc be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 2026 Toulouse municipal election?

Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate advance to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary?

Trump approval Up or Down this week?

GOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by March 31, 2026?

Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

Epstein "I beat Bush" Email unredacted by March 31?

Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026?

Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election?

U.S. Congress member out over Epstein files by April 30?

Will the DHS shutdown end between March 24-27, 2026?

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Will Andy Barr be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?

Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Will Bill Cassidy be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?

Will Trump nationalize elections?

Will Noam Chomsky be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

Trump out as President by June 30?

Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 40.0 on March 20, 2026?

Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026?

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

Will Trump say "Regime change" this week? (March 15)

Will Trump post "Stupid" on Truth Social this week? (March 15)