Business & Economics Prediction Markets
Markets covering economic indicators, corporate events, earnings, IPOs, and macroeconomic trends. Data-driven analysis of business and economic outcomes.
Markets
744
Avg Alpha Score
10.7
Total Volume
$72.0M
With Smart Money Data
744
744 markets sorted by Alpha Score
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
YES 89%/NO 11%
Alpha 78Strong YES
$844K
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?
YES 28%/NO 72%
Alpha 76Strong NO
$622KWill Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?
YES 77%/NO 23%
Alpha 70Strong YES
$19K
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June?
YES 27%/NO 73%
Alpha 61Strong NO
$159KWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June?
YES 46%/NO 55%
Alpha 56Strong NO
$32K
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?
YES 22%/NO 78%
Alpha 53Strong NO
$302K
GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?
YES 69%/NO 32%
Alpha 53Strong YES
$116K
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?
YES 17%/NO 84%
Alpha 48Strong NO
$311K
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
YES 41%/NO 60%
Alpha 48Strong NO
$56K
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $260 end of March?
YES 33%/NO 68%
Alpha 48Strong NO
$3K
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 end of March?
YES 55%/NO 45%
Alpha 46Strong NO
$14K
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (HIGH) in March 2026?
YES 33%/NO 67%
Alpha 45Strong NO
$5KWill Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?
YES 88%/NO 13%
Alpha 45Strong YES
$62KWill Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in June?
YES 16%/NO 84%
Alpha 44Strong NO
$139KWill Crude Oil (CL) settle at $90+ in March?
YES 65%/NO 36%
Alpha 44Strong NO
$62KWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June?
YES 22%/NO 79%
Alpha 44Strong NO
$54KWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?
YES 17%/NO 83%
Alpha 42Strong NO
$121K
Will Meta (META) close above $640 end of March?
YES 33%/NO 67%
Alpha 42Strong NO
$6K
Will Amazon reach $224 in March?
YES 35%/NO 65%
Alpha 41Strong NO
$4K
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for math on March 31?
YES 92%/NO 8%
Alpha 40Strong YES
$25KWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?
YES 7%/NO 94%
Alpha 39Strong NO
$367KWill Meta (META) close above $620 end of March?
YES 50%/NO 51%
Alpha 38Strong NO
$3K
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?
YES 10%/NO 90%
Alpha 38Strong NO
$126KWill Apple (AAPL) close above $270 end of March?
YES 19%/NO 81%
Alpha 37Strong NO
$3K
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the March meeting?
YES 55%/NO 45%
Alpha 34Lean YES
$51KWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June?
YES 8%/NO 92%
Alpha 34Strong NO
$127KWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?
YES 14%/NO 87%
Alpha 32Strong NO
$258KWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?
YES 8%/NO 93%
Alpha 31Strong NO
$23K
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
YES 6%/NO 94%
Alpha 30Lean YES
$693K
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in March?
YES 35%/NO 65%
Alpha 30Strong NO
$13K
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
YES 6%/NO 95%
Alpha 29Strong YES
$1.6MWill Meta (META) close above $680 end of March?
YES 23%/NO 78%
Alpha 29Strong NO
$3K
Another US bank failure by March 31?
YES 19%/NO 81%
Alpha 29Lean NO
$74KWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June?
YES 7%/NO 93%
Alpha 28Strong NO
$179K
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31?
YES 27%/NO 74%
Alpha 27Lean NO
$381KWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
YES 92%/NO 9%
Alpha 27Lean YES
$1.5M
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?
YES 8%/NO 93%
Alpha 27Strong NO
$34K
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $650b and $660b on March 31?
YES 16%/NO 84%
Alpha 27Strong YES
$10K
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?
YES 62%/NO 38%
Alpha 27Strong YES
$258KWill Google have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 26Strong YES
$30KWill Google have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 25Strong YES
$23K
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?
YES 32%/NO 69%
Alpha 25Strong NO
$238K
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?
YES 45%/NO 56%
Alpha 25Strong NO
$101KWill GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 25Strong NO
$118KWill Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?
YES 13%/NO 88%
Alpha 25Strong YES
$6KWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June?
YES 63%/NO 37%
Alpha 24Lean NO
$580KWill Elon Musk’s net worth be between $670b and $680b on March 31?
YES 11%/NO 89%
Alpha 24Strong YES
$12K
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?
YES 35%/NO 66%
Alpha 24Strong NO
$26K
Will Getty Images Holdings (GETY) beat quarterly earnings?
YES 48%/NO 53%
Alpha 24Strong NO
$3K
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 end of March?
YES 34%/NO 67%
Alpha 24Strong NO
$428Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $660b and $670b on March 31?
YES 14%/NO 87%
Alpha 23Lean YES
$15KWill NVIDIA dip to $164 in March?
YES 30%/NO 70%
Alpha 23Strong YES
$14K
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30?
YES 12%/NO 88%
Alpha 23Strong NO
$18K
Will Thom Tillis vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?
YES 77%/NO 23%
Alpha 23Strong YES
$36KGPT-5.5 released by June 30, 2026?
YES 84%/NO 17%
Alpha 22Strong YES
$161KWill Amazon (AMZN) close above $200 end of March?
YES 73%/NO 28%
Alpha 22Strong NO
$4KWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of March?
YES 6%/NO 95%
Alpha 22Strong NO
$2KWill Meta (META) close above $660 end of March?
YES 20%/NO 80%
Alpha 22Strong NO
$686Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on March 31?
YES 8%/NO 92%
Alpha 21Strong YES
$11KWill Meta (META) close above $600 end of March?
YES 69%/NO 32%
Alpha 21Strong NO
$2KWill SpaceX's public ticker be $X?
YES 43%/NO 57%
Alpha 21Lean YES
$313K
Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 0% and 2%?
YES 17%/NO 83%
Alpha 21Strong YES
$9KMeta "Mango" model released by March 31?
YES 10%/NO 90%
Alpha 21Strong NO
$2K
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?
YES 13%/NO 88%
Alpha 21Strong NO
$29K
Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026?
YES 10%/NO 90%
Alpha 21Strong NO
$59K
Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during March press conference?
YES 22%/NO 79%
Alpha 21Strong YES
$4K
Will Apple release Homepod Mini Successor by June 30?
YES 73%/NO 27%
Alpha 20Strong YES
$910Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,700-$6,800 in March?
YES 26%/NO 75%
Alpha 20Strong NO
$337
Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026
YES 14%/NO 86%
Alpha 20Strong YES
$109KWill OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?
YES 20%/NO 80%
Alpha 20Strong NO
$42KWill Powell say "Recession" during March press conference?
YES 30%/NO 70%
Alpha 20Strong NO
$348Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (HIGH) in March 2026?
YES 6%/NO 94%
Alpha 20Strong NO
$4K
Will the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?
YES 33%/NO 67%
Alpha 20Strong NO
$3K
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?
YES 36%/NO 64%
Alpha 20Lean YES
$63K
Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?
YES 11%/NO 89%
Alpha 20Strong YES
$27KWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 20Lean YES
$278K
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 meeting?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 20Strong YES
$325KWill Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during March press conference?
YES 81%/NO 20%
Alpha 20Strong NO
$4KWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of March?
YES 13%/NO 87%
Alpha 20Strong YES
$23KWill Silver (SI) settle over $120 on the final trading day of June 2026?
YES 13%/NO 88%
Alpha 19Strong NO
$9KWill Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?
YES 27%/NO 73%
Alpha 19Strong YES
$7KWill Meta (META) close above $560 end of March?
YES 84%/NO 16%
Alpha 19Strong NO
$2KWill Gold (GC) settle at >$6,200 in June?
YES 14%/NO 86%
Alpha 19Strong NO
$98KMeta "Mango" model released by June 30?
YES 39%/NO 62%
Alpha 19Strong NO
$2K
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $290 end of March?
YES 76%/NO 25%
Alpha 19Strong NO
$2KWill S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,500-$6,600 in March?
YES 23%/NO 78%
Alpha 19Strong NO
$269Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of March?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 18Strong NO
$17KGemini 3.5 released by May 31?
YES 35%/NO 66%
Alpha 18Lean YES
$50KWill OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?
YES 88%/NO 13%
Alpha 18Lean YES
$70KWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of December?
YES 11%/NO 90%
Alpha 18Strong NO
$12K
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by June 30?
YES 8%/NO 93%
Alpha 18Strong NO
$13K
Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%?
YES 27%/NO 73%
Alpha 18Strong YES
$2KWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?
YES 24%/NO 77%
Alpha 17Strong NO
$10KWill Anthropic have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 17Strong YES
$9KWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?
YES 10%/NO 91%
Alpha 17Strong NO
$449Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be less than 0%?
YES 65%/NO 35%
Alpha 17Lean YES
$21K
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model for math on March 31?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 17Strong YES
$20KWill Tesla (TSLA) close above $360 end of March?
YES 80%/NO 20%
Alpha 17Strong NO
$2KWill DeepSeek have the best AI model for coding on March 31?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 16Lean YES
$80KWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 16Strong NO
$210K
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?
YES 17%/NO 83%
Alpha 16Strong YES
$24KWill Elon Musk’s net worth be between $680b and $690b on March 31?
YES 7%/NO 94%
Alpha 16Lean YES
$11K
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.2m barrels per day in 2026?
YES 37%/NO 64%
Alpha 16Strong NO
$8KWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of March?
YES 4%/NO 97%
Alpha 16Lean YES
$31KWill Meta (META) finish week of March 16 above $610?
YES 61%/NO 39%
Alpha 16Strong NO
$314Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?
YES 82%/NO 18%
Alpha 16Lean YES
$24K
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30?
YES 11%/NO 90%
Alpha 16Strong NO
$21KWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 16Strong YES
$344KWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?
YES 93%/NO 7%
Alpha 15Strong NO
$289KGPT-5.5 released by April 15, 2026?
YES 56%/NO 44%
Alpha 15Strong YES
$5Will Anthropic have the best AI model for math on March 31?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 15Lean YES
$47KWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 15Strong NO
$93KWill Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?
YES 36%/NO 65%
Alpha 15Lean YES
$15K
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?
YES 44%/NO 56%
Alpha 14Strong NO
$14KWill Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?
YES 64%/NO 36%
Alpha 14Lean YES
$572KWill Gold (GC) settle over $5,800 on the final trading day of June 2026?
YES 34%/NO 66%
Alpha 14Strong NO
$6K
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of March 16 above $400?
YES 39%/NO 61%
Alpha 14Strong YES
$132
Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in March?
YES 32%/NO 68%
Alpha 14Strong YES
$8K
McDonald's CEO out by June 30?
YES 9%/NO 92%
Alpha 14Strong NO
$6KWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?
YES 74%/NO 27%
Alpha 14Strong NO
$32KWill OpenAI have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 14Lean YES
$48K
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 14Strong NO
$111KWill Powell say "Gold" or "Oil" during March press conference?
YES 86%/NO 14%
Alpha 14Strong NO
$1K
Human moon landing in 2026?
YES 6%/NO 94%
Alpha 14Strong NO
$1.9MWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 14Strong NO
$82K
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?
YES 8%/NO 93%
Alpha 13Strong NO
$37KWill Meta (META) close above $580 end of March?
YES 80%/NO 21%
Alpha 13Strong NO
$2KWill Gold (GC) settle over $5,400 on the final trading day of June 2026?
YES 39%/NO 61%
Alpha 13Strong NO
$477Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,900-$7,000 in March?
YES 19%/NO 82%
Alpha 13Strong NO
$20
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?
YES 26%/NO 75%
Alpha 13Strong YES
$5KWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in March 2026?
YES 26%/NO 74%
Alpha 13Strong YES
$3KWill xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 13Strong YES
$262KWill Meta (META) finish week of March 16 above $600?
YES 74%/NO 27%
Alpha 13Strong NO
$633
Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026?
YES 82%/NO 19%
Alpha 13Strong YES
$118K
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 13Strong NO
$205KWill Elon Musk’s net worth be between $700b and $710b on March 31?
YES 6%/NO 94%
Alpha 13Strong YES
$13KWill Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
YES 50%/NO 51%
Alpha 13Lean YES
$23KWill Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
YES 40%/NO 61%
Alpha 13Lean NO
$60KWill S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,500 on the final trading day of March 2026?
YES 70%/NO 31%
Alpha 13Lean YES
$4KWill NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 end of March?
YES 55%/NO 46%
Alpha 13Lean NO
$9KWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?
YES 62%/NO 39%
Alpha 13Strong NO
$31KWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in March 2026?
YES 14%/NO 86%
Alpha 13Strong YES
$14KWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December?
YES 6%/NO 94%
Alpha 13Strong NO
$13KWill Microsoft (MSFT) close at $430-$440 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?
YES 9%/NO 91%
Alpha 12Strong NO
$59Will OpenAI GPT score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
YES 74%/NO 27%
Alpha 12Lean NO
$30K
Will Waymo operate in 10 cities on June 30 2026?
YES 15%/NO 85%
Alpha 12Strong NO
$9KWill monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in March?
YES 6%/NO 94%
Alpha 12Strong NO
$3K
Applied Intuition IPO before 2027?
YES 13%/NO 88%
Alpha 12Strong NO
$154KWill DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 12Strong YES
$111KWill Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q1 2026
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 12Lean YES
$32KWill Anthropic have the best AI model for coding on March 31?
YES 8%/NO 92%
Alpha 12Lean YES
$68KWill Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June?
YES 56%/NO 44%
Alpha 12Lean YES
$29KWill Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
YES 16%/NO 84%
Alpha 12Strong NO
$23KWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
YES 11%/NO 90%
Alpha 12Strong YES
$66K
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?
YES 33%/NO 68%
Alpha 11Lean NO
$263KWill Tesla reach $450 in March?
YES 16%/NO 84%
Alpha 11Lean NO
$4K
Will Accenture (ACN) beat quarterly earnings?
YES 90%/NO 10%
Alpha 11Strong NO
$10K
Will Alibaba (BABA) beat quarterly earnings?
YES 91%/NO 9%
Alpha 11Strong YES
$1KWill SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?
YES 19%/NO 81%
Alpha 11Lean YES
$514KWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 11Strong NO
$196K
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
YES 18%/NO 83%
Alpha 11Strong NO
$29KWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?
YES 56%/NO 45%
Alpha 11Strong NO
$1K
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?
YES 64%/NO 36%
Alpha 11Strong NO
$6K
Will Jensen Huang say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 10+ times at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?
YES 96%/NO 4%
Alpha 11Strong YES
$2KWill annual inflation increase by 3.0% in March?
YES 26%/NO 74%
Alpha 11Strong YES
$10KWill Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 11Strong NO
$8KWill monthly inflation increase by 0.8% or more in March?
YES 28%/NO 72%
Alpha 11Strong YES
$2K
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?
YES 33%/NO 68%
Alpha 11Lean YES
$106KWill Apple (AAPL) finish week of March 16 above $265?
YES 11%/NO 90%
Alpha 11Strong NO
$12Will Google reach $320 in March?
YES 47%/NO 54%
Alpha 10Lean NO
$9K
Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026?
YES 16%/NO 85%
Alpha 10Strong NO
$76K
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?
YES 71%/NO 29%
Alpha 10Strong YES
$33KWill NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $170 end of March?
YES 79%/NO 22%
Alpha 10Strong NO
$4KWill monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in March?
YES 28%/NO 72%
Alpha 10Strong YES
$816Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of March 16 above $200?
YES 71%/NO 29%
Alpha 10Strong NO
$40Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?
YES 18%/NO 83%
Alpha 10Strong NO
$15K
Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 5% on any day in Q1?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 10Strong NO
$12KWill Amazon (AMZN) close above $190 end of March?
YES 86%/NO 14%
Alpha 10Lean NO
$5KWill Crude Oil (CL) settle at $85-$90 in March?
YES 13%/NO 88%
Alpha 10Strong YES
$78KWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 10Strong NO
$5KWill the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 2% and 3%?
YES 6%/NO 94%
Alpha 10Strong YES
$4KS&P 500 all time high by March 31, 2026?
YES 12%/NO 89%
Alpha 10Lean NO
$115KWill Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?
YES 83%/NO 18%
Alpha 10Strong NO
$6K
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 10Strong YES
$423KWill annual inflation increase by 3.3% in March?
YES 13%/NO 87%
Alpha 10Strong YES
$12KWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?
YES 56%/NO 45%
Alpha 10Lean NO
$193K
Will Mexico’s February unemployment rate be less than or equal to 2.4%?
YES 61%/NO 40%
Alpha 10Strong NO
$11KWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of March?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 10Lean YES
$21KWill Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
YES 30%/NO 71%
Alpha 10Lean YES
$284KWill the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 3% and 4%?
YES 7%/NO 93%
Alpha 10Strong YES
$3KWill Silver (SI) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026?
YES 68%/NO 32%
Alpha 10Lean NO
$7KWill inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?
YES 16%/NO 85%
Alpha 9Strong NO
$5KWill Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June?
YES 12%/NO 88%
Alpha 9Strong YES
$26KWill the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?
YES 14%/NO 86%
Alpha 9Lean YES
$2KWill Crude Oil (CL) settle at $80-$85 in March?
YES 10%/NO 91%
Alpha 9Strong YES
$25K
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?
YES 59%/NO 41%
Alpha 9Lean NO
$75KWill Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?
YES 24%/NO 77%
Alpha 9Lean NO
$107KWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
YES 22%/NO 78%
Alpha 9Lean YES
$1.9MWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
YES 33%/NO 67%
Alpha 9Lean YES
$184KWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of March?
YES 11%/NO 89%
Alpha 9Strong YES
$26KWill Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June?
YES 47%/NO 53%
Alpha 9Lean YES
$126K
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
YES 54%/NO 46%
Alpha 9Lean NO
$223KWill the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be at least 10%?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 9Strong YES
$13KWill an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
YES 93%/NO 7%
Alpha 9Strong NO
$65KWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,600 by end of March?
YES 7%/NO 93%
Alpha 9Lean YES
$20K
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
YES 10%/NO 90%
Alpha 9Lean YES
$228KWill Jensen Huang say "FSD" or "Full Self-Driving" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?
YES 16%/NO 84%
Alpha 9Lean NO
$1K
Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO before 2027?
YES 18%/NO 82%
Alpha 8Strong NO
$23KWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?
YES 82%/NO 19%
Alpha 8Strong YES
$40KWill the S&P 500 Index gain at least 2% on any day in Q1?
YES 56%/NO 45%
Alpha 8Lean NO
$13KGemini 3.5 released by March 31?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 8Lean YES
$507KWill OpenAI have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 8Lean YES
$17K
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?
YES 51%/NO 49%
Alpha 8Lean NO
$35KWill Gold (GC) settle over $5,400 on the final trading day of March 2026?
YES 33%/NO 68%
Alpha 8Strong YES
$550Will Gold (GC) settle over $8,000 on the final trading day of June 2026?
YES 11%/NO 90%
Alpha 8Strong NO
$1KWill Jensen Huang say "GPU" 5+ times at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?
YES 96%/NO 4%
Alpha 8Strong YES
$2KWill Waymo operate in 6 cities on June 30 2026?
YES 19%/NO 81%
Alpha 8Lean YES
$8K
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 8Strong YES
$223K
Will Discord’s market cap be $30B or greater at market close on IPO day?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 8Strong YES
$52KWill SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX?
YES 7%/NO 93%
Alpha 8Strong YES
$187K
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
YES 52%/NO 49%
Alpha 8Lean YES
$158K
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
YES 21%/NO 79%
Alpha 8Strong NO
$13KWill Jensen Huang say "Meta" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?
YES 43%/NO 57%
Alpha 8Lean NO
$2KWill US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?
YES 11%/NO 89%
Alpha 8Strong YES
$3KWill Apple (AAPL) close above $220 end of March?
YES 94%/NO 6%
Alpha 8Strong NO
$879Will Jensen Huang say "Data Center" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?
YES 96%/NO 4%
Alpha 8Strong NO
$842Will annual inflation increase by 3.2% in March?
YES 14%/NO 86%
Alpha 8Strong YES
$8KWill SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?
YES 37%/NO 63%
Alpha 8Strong YES
$60KWill Crude Oil (CL) settle at $65-$70 in March?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 8Strong YES
$137KWill Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026
YES 80%/NO 20%
Alpha 7Lean YES
$164K
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon?
YES 14%/NO 86%
Alpha 7Lean NO
$34K
Will PDD Holdings (PDD) beat quarterly earnings?
YES 85%/NO 15%
Alpha 7Strong NO
$4KWill Silver (SI) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026?
YES 40%/NO 60%
Alpha 7Lean NO
$39KWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of March?
YES 16%/NO 84%
Alpha 7Strong YES
$5KWill Tesla dip to $353 in March?
YES 22%/NO 78%
Alpha 7Lean NO
$4K
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 7Strong YES
$184K
Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by June 30?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 7Strong NO
$4K
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?
YES 28%/NO 72%
Alpha 7Lean NO
$451KWill Meta (META) close above $780 end of March?
YES 11%/NO 89%
Alpha 7Strong YES
$2K
Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) close over $19,000 on the final trading day of December 2026?
YES 58%/NO 42%
Alpha 7Strong YES
$719Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 7Strong YES
$128KWill US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?
YES 17%/NO 84%
Alpha 7Lean YES
$29K
Will General Mills (GIS) beat quarterly earnings?
YES 86%/NO 14%
Alpha 7Lean YES
$3KWill NVIDIA reach $200 in March?
YES 28%/NO 73%
Alpha 7Lean YES
$13KWill Waymo operate in 12 or more cities on June 30 2026?
YES 26%/NO 74%
Alpha 7Lean NO
$18KWill SpaceX's public ticker be $MARS?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 7Strong YES
$115KWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 0% or lower before 2027?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 7Strong NO
$8KWill US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026?
YES 7%/NO 93%
Alpha 7Strong NO
$18K
Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026?
YES 87%/NO 13%
Alpha 7Strong YES
$9KWill OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 7Strong YES
$82KWill OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 7Strong YES
$161KWill Discord’s market cap be between $15B and $20B at market close on IPO day?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 7Strong YES
$84K
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.00% and 4.49%?
YES 46%/NO 54%
Alpha 7Strong NO
$3KWill Gold (GC) settle at $5,400-$5,800 in June?
YES 14%/NO 86%
Alpha 7Strong YES
$34KWill the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 4% and 5%?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 7Strong YES
$4K
Mistral AI IPO before 2027?
YES 13%/NO 87%
Alpha 6Strong YES
$120KWill SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on IPO day?
YES 6%/NO 94%
Alpha 6Strong YES
$25KWill OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?
YES 6%/NO 94%
Alpha 6Strong YES
$469K
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?
YES 72%/NO 28%
Alpha 6Lean NO
$372KWill Google (GOOGL) close above $280 end of March?
YES 86%/NO 14%
Alpha 6Strong NO
$1K
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?
YES 38%/NO 63%
Alpha 6Lean YES
$554KWill Jensen Huang say "Anthropic" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?
YES 28%/NO 72%
Alpha 6Lean NO
$10K
Databricks IPO before 2027?
YES 28%/NO 72%
Alpha 6Strong YES
$281K
Will Bank of America or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 6Strong YES
$50K
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
YES 67%/NO 33%
Alpha 6Lean YES
$217KWill OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?
YES 6%/NO 94%
Alpha 6Strong YES
$238KWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?
YES 7%/NO 93%
Alpha 6Strong YES
$201KWill Microsoft (MSFT) close above $345 end of March?
YES 98%/NO 2%
Alpha 6Strong YES
$688
Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed by March 31?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 6Lean NO
$91K
Brex IPO before 2027?
YES 7%/NO 93%
Alpha 6Strong YES
$68KWill GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?
YES 79%/NO 22%
Alpha 6Lean NO
$28KWill SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 6Strong NO
$678KWill xAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?
YES 9%/NO 92%
Alpha 6Strong YES
$6KWill Silver (SI) settle at $90-$100 in June?
YES 11%/NO 89%
Alpha 6Strong YES
$25KWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of March?
YES 7%/NO 93%
Alpha 5Strong YES
$14K
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026?
YES 8%/NO 93%
Alpha 5Strong YES
$21KWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027?
YES 14%/NO 86%
Alpha 5Strong NO
$21K
Will Larry Page be 2nd richest person on March 31?
YES 90%/NO 11%
Alpha 5Lean YES
$42KWill Crude Oil (CL) settle at $77-$84 in June?
YES 14%/NO 86%
Alpha 5Strong YES
$5KWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June?
YES 10%/NO 91%
Alpha 5Lean NO
$157KWill Nasdaq 100 (NDX) close over $24,000 on the final trading day of December 2026?
YES 44%/NO 56%
Alpha 5Strong YES
$526Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 5Lean YES
$275K
Will Fannie Mae not IPO by June 30, 2026?
YES 87%/NO 13%
Alpha 5Lean YES
$9KWill the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 5% and 6%?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 5Strong YES
$3KWill Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June?
YES 11%/NO 89%
Alpha 5Strong YES
$32K
AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2026?
YES 18%/NO 82%
Alpha 5Lean NO
$1.8MWill Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 5Lean YES
$29KWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 5Strong NO
$10KWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 5Strong YES
$78KWill Waymo operate in 8 cities on June 30 2026?
YES 10%/NO 90%
Alpha 5Strong YES
$9K
Fannie Mae IPO before 2027?
YES 19%/NO 81%
Alpha 5Strong YES
$87K
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?
YES 27%/NO 74%
Alpha 5Lean YES
$236KWill 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 5Strong YES
$397K
Vanta IPO before 2027?
YES 13%/NO 88%
Alpha 5Strong YES
$98KWill Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 5Lean YES
$58KWill the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.6%?
YES 13%/NO 87%
Alpha 5Strong YES
$2K
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?
YES 85%/NO 16%
Alpha 5Lean NO
$73KWill 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
YES 31%/NO 70%
Alpha 5Lean YES
$624K
Will Weibo (WB) beat quarterly earnings?
YES 84%/NO 17%
Alpha 5Strong NO
$2KWill SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on IPO day?
YES 11%/NO 89%
Alpha 5Lean YES
$25KWill SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)?
YES 70%/NO 30%
Alpha 5Lean NO
$19KWill Jensen Huang say "Microsoft" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?
YES 46%/NO 55%
Alpha 5Lean YES
$186Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.1m barrels per day in 2026?
YES 75%/NO 25%
Alpha 5Strong NO
$11K
Revolut IPO before 2027?
YES 23%/NO 78%
Alpha 5Strong NO
$33K
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?
YES 12%/NO 89%
Alpha 5Lean NO
$133KWill US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?
YES 54%/NO 47%
Alpha 5Lean YES
$58K
Canada recession before 2027?
YES 34%/NO 67%
Alpha 4Lean YES
$43KWill Gold (GC) settle at $5,800-$6,200 in June?
YES 13%/NO 87%
Alpha 4Lean YES
$52K
Will Meta acquire TikTok?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 4Strong NO
$101K
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?
YES 12%/NO 89%
Alpha 4Lean YES
$86KWill the S&P 500 Index gain at least 4% on any day in Q1?
YES 7%/NO 93%
Alpha 4Lean NO
$11K
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 13?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 4Strong YES
$5K
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027?
YES 15%/NO 85%
Alpha 4Strong YES
$72KWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026?
YES 25%/NO 76%
Alpha 4Lean NO
$27K
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?
YES 57%/NO 43%
Alpha 4Lean NO
$567KWill the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 4Strong YES
$4K
Freddie Mac IPO before 2027?
YES 22%/NO 78%
Alpha 4Lean YES
$211KWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 4Strong YES
$83KWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
YES 15%/NO 85%
Alpha 4Lean YES
$97K
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 4Strong YES
$116K
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 4Lean YES
$746KWill Silver (SI) settle at $100-$115 in June?
YES 14%/NO 87%
Alpha 4Lean NO
$31K
Will Dollar Tree (DLTR) beat quarterly earnings?
YES 94%/NO 7%
Alpha 4Lean YES
$15KWill Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 end of March?
YES 28%/NO 72%
Alpha 4Strong NO
--
Will OpenAI acquire Pinterest in 2026?
YES 7%/NO 94%
Alpha 4Strong NO
$22KWill Crude Oil (CL) settle at $63-$70 in June?
YES 11%/NO 89%
Alpha 4Strong YES
$15K
Canva IPO before 2027?
YES 51%/NO 50%
Alpha 4Strong NO
$16KWill SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.2T at market close on IPO day?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 4Strong YES
$19K
Stripe IPO before 2027?
YES 14%/NO 86%
Alpha 4Strong YES
$197KWill Jensen Huang say "Vera Rubin" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?
YES 97%/NO 3%
Alpha 4Lean NO
$1K
SpaceX goes public through Bill Ackman "SPAR" company?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 4Strong NO
$3KWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 4Lean YES
$21KWill SpaceX have 12 or more launches in March?
YES 96%/NO 4%
Alpha 4Lean NO
$8KWill Google (GOOGL) close above $350 end of March?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 4Strong YES
$1KWill Waymo operate in 9 cities on June 30 2026?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 4Strong YES
$14K
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 4Strong YES
$96KWill Meta (META) close above $720 end of March?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 4Strong YES
$1K
OpenAI IPO before 2027?
YES 37%/NO 64%
Alpha 4Lean NO
$158KWill Tesla reach $473 in March?
YES 6%/NO 95%
Alpha 3Strong NO
--Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027?
YES 7%/NO 93%
Alpha 3Strong YES
$6KWill Apple (AAPL) close above $330 end of March?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 3Strong YES
$270Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 16 above $190?
YES 28%/NO 73%
Alpha 3Strong NO
--Will Tesla reach $435 in March?
YES 25%/NO 76%
Alpha 3Strong NO
--Will Gold (GC) settle over $7,000 on the final trading day of March 2026?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 3Strong NO
$964Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at market close on IPO day?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 3Lean YES
$43KWill Tesla (TSLA) close above $460 end of March?
YES 18%/NO 82%
Alpha 3Strong NO
--
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 3Strong YES
$192KAnthropic $500B+ valuation in 2026?
YES 86%/NO 14%
Alpha 3Lean NO
$9KWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 3Lean NO
$101K
Will Ubisoft announce bankruptcy by June 30?
YES 7%/NO 93%
Alpha 3Strong YES
$6K
Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027?
YES 16%/NO 85%
Alpha 3Lean YES
$80KWill Silver (SI) settle at <$50 in June?
YES 18%/NO 83%
Alpha 3Lean NO
$48K
Remote IPO before 2027?
YES 68%/NO 33%
Alpha 3Lean YES
$30K
Will "Gold" or "Silver" be said on the next episode of the Joe Rogan Experience?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 3Strong YES
$838
Ledger IPO before 2027?
YES 71%/NO 29%
Alpha 3Lean NO
$463KWill Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 end of March?
YES 64%/NO 36%
Alpha 3Strong NO
--
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?
YES 33%/NO 67%
Alpha 3Lean YES
$7.9M
Will BP be acquired before 2027?
YES 17%/NO 84%
Alpha 3Lean NO
$1.0M
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
YES 55%/NO 46%
Alpha 3Lean NO
$38KWill Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1m barrels per day in 2026?
YES 90%/NO 11%
Alpha 3Strong NO
$22KWill Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June?
YES 7%/NO 93%
Alpha 3Lean YES
$65KWill Amazon (AMZN) finish week of March 16 above $215?
YES 33%/NO 68%
Alpha 3Strong NO
--Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $405 end of March?
YES 39%/NO 62%
Alpha 3Strong NO
--
SHEIN IPO before 2027?
YES 26%/NO 74%
Alpha 3Lean YES
$46K
Will Databricks’ market cap be between $125B and $150B at market close on IPO day?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 3Strong YES
$18KWill Craig Federighi be the next CEO of Apple?
YES 6%/NO 94%
Alpha 3Strong NO
$31K
Will DocuSign (DOCU) beat quarterly earnings?
YES 95%/NO 5%
Alpha 3Strong NO
$2KWill the Communist Party of India (CPI) win the most seats in the 2026 Assam Legislative Assembly election?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 3Strong YES
$727Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $465 end of March?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 3Strong NO
$366Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.4m barrels per day in 2026?
YES 11%/NO 90%
Alpha 3Lean NO
$14KWill Waymo operate in 7 cities on June 30 2026?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 3Lean YES
$10KWill Google (GOOGL) close above $320 end of March?
YES 24%/NO 76%
Alpha 3Strong NO
--Will Google (GOOGL) close above $300 end of March?
YES 56%/NO 44%
Alpha 3Strong NO
--
Epic Games IPO before 2027?
YES 38%/NO 63%
Alpha 3Lean YES
$58K
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 3Strong YES
$212KWill the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 2Strong NO
$7KWill Jensen Huang say "Deep Learning" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?
YES 45%/NO 56%
Alpha 2Lean NO
--
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?
YES 10%/NO 91%
Alpha 2Lean YES
$565K
Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?
YES 75%/NO 26%
Alpha 2Strong YES
--Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $220 end of March?
YES 25%/NO 75%
Alpha 2Strong NO
--Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2026?
YES 6%/NO 95%
Alpha 2Strong YES
$14KWill Amazon reach $232 in March?
YES 18%/NO 83%
Alpha 2Strong NO
--Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?
YES 11%/NO 89%
Alpha 2Strong YES
$1K
Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027?
YES 18%/NO 83%
Alpha 2Lean NO
$21KWill the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 2Strong NO
$4K
Rippling IPO before 2027?
YES 18%/NO 83%
Alpha 2Lean YES
$83KWill Amazon reach $244 in March?
YES 8%/NO 93%
Alpha 2Strong NO
--
Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 2Lean NO
$360KWill Tesla dip to $375 in March?
YES 58%/NO 42%
Alpha 2Lean YES
--
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
YES 6%/NO 94%
Alpha 2Lean YES
$115KWill OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?
YES 31%/NO 69%
Alpha 2Lean NO
$24KWill Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 end of March?
YES 23%/NO 77%
Alpha 2Strong NO
--Will Amazon dip to $192 in March?
YES 32%/NO 69%
Alpha 2Strong YES
--Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?
YES 34%/NO 66%
Alpha 2Strong NO
--
Ripple Labs IPO before 2027?
YES 10%/NO 91%
Alpha 2Strong YES
$108KWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?
YES 26%/NO 75%
Alpha 2Lean NO
$38K
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?
YES 27%/NO 74%
Alpha 2Lean YES
$914K
Waymo IPO before 2027?
YES 14%/NO 87%
Alpha 2Strong YES
$15KWill SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026?
YES 88%/NO 13%
Alpha 2Lean YES
$7KWill Tesla (TSLA) close above $370 end of March?
YES 74%/NO 27%
Alpha 2Strong NO
--Will Jensen Huang say "Google" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?
YES 42%/NO 59%
Alpha 2Lean NO
--Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 2Strong YES
$231KWill Silver (SI) settle over $140 on the final trading day of June 2026?
YES 9%/NO 92%
Alpha 2Strong NO
--Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.0% or lower before 2027?
YES 6%/NO 94%
Alpha 2Strong YES
$2KWill Jensen Huang say "Training" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?
YES 95%/NO 5%
Alpha 2Lean YES
$7KWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the end of 2026?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 2Strong YES
$51KWill Greg Joswiak be the next CEO of Apple?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 2Strong YES
$50K
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?
YES 81%/NO 19%
Alpha 2Lean YES
$52K
Will Microsoft acquire TikTok?
YES 8%/NO 92%
Alpha 2Strong YES
$63K
Anthropic acquired before 2027?
YES 11%/NO 89%
Alpha 2Lean NO
$6KWill OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?
YES 14%/NO 87%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $240 end of March?
YES 6%/NO 94%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--
Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q1 2026 be at least 2.5%?
YES 34%/NO 66%
Alpha 1Strong YES
--
Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO before 2027?
YES 14%/NO 86%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) close over $38,000 on the final trading day of December 2026?
YES 43%/NO 57%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?
YES 26%/NO 74%
Alpha 1Strong YES
--Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $160 end of March?
YES 89%/NO 12%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--
Will Waymo launch in London by June 30 2026?
YES 13%/NO 88%
Alpha 1Strong YES
--Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 1Strong YES
--Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?
YES 11%/NO 89%
Alpha 1Strong YES
--
Will Nvidia have a #1 AI model by June 30?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?
YES 16%/NO 85%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--
Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 800B and 900B?
YES 37%/NO 64%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
YES 86%/NO 14%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--Will Waymo launch in Detroit by June 30 2026?
YES 21%/NO 79%
Alpha 1Lean YES
--Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) hit $30,000 (HIGH) in December?
YES 34%/NO 66%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--Will Jensen Huang say "Autonomous" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?
YES 81%/NO 20%
Alpha 1Lean YES
--Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.5% or lower before 2027?
YES 8%/NO 93%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be ≥4.7%?
YES 14%/NO 86%
Alpha 1Strong YES
--Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in May 2026 (ET)?
YES 6%/NO 94%
Alpha 1Strong YES
--
Will Apple release a new version of the Apple TV by March 31?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 1Lean YES
--Will Silver (SI) settle over $110 on the final trading day of June 2026?
YES 17%/NO 83%
Alpha 1Lean YES
--Will Waymo launch in New York City by June 30 2026?
YES 10%/NO 90%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--
Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by June 30?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 1Lean NO
$3K
Will Conrad Kramer leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?
YES 50%/NO 51%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $470 end of March?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $350 end of March?
YES 86%/NO 14%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--Will Tesla dip to $285 in April?
YES 12%/NO 89%
Alpha 1Strong YES
--Will Apple (AAPL) close above $280 end of March?
YES 5%/NO 96%
Alpha 1Strong YES
--Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,600 (LOW) in June?
YES 86%/NO 14%
Alpha 1Strong YES
--
Will Walmart acquire TikTok?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 1Lean NO
$53KWill Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.5m barrels per day in 2026?
YES 11%/NO 90%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $140 end of March?
YES 90%/NO 10%
Alpha 1Strong YES
--Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam?
YES 44%/NO 56%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,200 on the final trading day of June 2026?
YES 13%/NO 87%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in June?
YES 86%/NO 14%
Alpha 1Strong YES
--Will Google (GOOGL) close above $270 end of March?
YES 84%/NO 17%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) hit $32,000 (HIGH) in December?
YES 14%/NO 86%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--Will Lovable announce bankruptcy before 2027?
YES 11%/NO 90%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026?
YES 34%/NO 66%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy before 2027?-kuQe
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 1Strong YES
$4KWill Kevin Cramer vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?
YES 92%/NO 8%
Alpha 1Strong YES
--Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,200 (HIGH) in March 2026?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--Will Apple (AAPL) close above $210 end of March?
YES 97%/NO 3%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 5% on any day in Q1?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 1Lean YES
--Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?
YES 22%/NO 78%
Alpha 1Lean YES
--
Will Meta launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?
YES 14%/NO 86%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--
Will André Maestrini be the next CEO of Lululemon?
YES 32%/NO 68%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--
Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by June 30?
YES 7%/NO 94%
Alpha 1Lean NO
$3KWill John Kennedy vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?
YES 90%/NO 10%
Alpha 1Strong YES
--Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) hit $28,500 (HIGH) in December?
YES 40%/NO 60%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?
YES 26%/NO 75%
Alpha 1Strong YES
--Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026?
YES 15%/NO 85%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit 5000 (LOW) in March?
YES 8%/NO 92%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--Will Apple (AAPL) close above $230 end of March?
YES 90%/NO 10%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
YES 14%/NO 86%
Alpha 1Lean NO
--Will Amazon dip to $152 in March?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026?
YES 72%/NO 28%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $160 end of March?
YES 95%/NO 5%
Alpha 1Strong YES
--
Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $1M before 2027?
YES 15%/NO 85%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--Will Gold (GC) settle over $7,000 on the final trading day of June 2026?
YES 23%/NO 77%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $330 end of March?
YES 97%/NO 3%
Alpha 1Strong YES
--
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?
YES 32%/NO 68%
Alpha 1Strong YES
--Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,500 on the final trading day of June 2026?
YES 19%/NO 81%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 900B and 1T?
YES 25%/NO 76%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 end of March?
YES 19%/NO 81%
Alpha 1Strong YES
--Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,050 (HIGH) in June?
YES 42%/NO 59%
Alpha 1Strong YES
--
Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity by June 30?
YES 35%/NO 66%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,000 on the final trading day of June 2026?
YES 19%/NO 81%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $180 end of March?
YES 93%/NO 8%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--Will Silver (SI) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2026?
YES 71%/NO 29%
No ScoreSplit
$13KWill S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,500-$7,000 in December?
YES 18%/NO 83%
No ScoreStrong NO
--Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
YES 97%/NO 3%
No ScoreSplit
$58KWill Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 3.50% and 3.99%?
YES 25%/NO 76%
No ScoreSplit
--Will Amazon dip to $200 in March?
YES 77%/NO 23%
No ScoreSplit
$6KWill SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?
YES 93%/NO 8%
No ScoreSplit
$478K
Will Artemis II launch by April 30?
YES 65%/NO 35%
No ScoreSplit
$81KWill the S&P 500 Index gain at least 3% on any day in Q1?
YES 20%/NO 80%
No ScoreSplit
--
US recession by end of 2026?
YES 35%/NO 66%
No ScoreSplit
$542KWill Silver (SI) settle over $95 on the final trading day of June 2026?
YES 35%/NO 65%
No ScoreSplit
--Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June?
YES 10%/NO 90%
No ScoreSplit
$65KSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T
YES 18%/NO 82%
No ScoreSplit
$65KWill Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during March press conference?
YES 43%/NO 57%
No ScoreSplit
--SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?
YES 37%/NO 64%
No ScoreSplit
$33KWill Meta (META) close above $760 end of March?
YES 11%/NO 89%
No ScoreSplit
--Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 end of March?
YES 33%/NO 68%
No ScoreSplit
$4KWill SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in September 2026 (ET)?
YES 9%/NO 91%
No ScoreSplit
--Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December?
YES 17%/NO 84%
No ScoreSplit
$6KWill Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%?
YES 9%/NO 91%
No ScoreSplit
$3KFed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?
YES 52%/NO 48%
No ScoreSplit
$9K
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026?
YES 35%/NO 65%
No ScoreSplit
--
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on March 13?
YES 3%/NO 97%
No ScoreSplit
$27KWill Amazon reach $296 in March?
YES 2%/NO 98%
No ScoreSplit
$2KFed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?
YES 73%/NO 27%
No ScoreSplit
$75K
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?
YES 73%/NO 28%
No ScoreSplit
$11KWill Google reach $330 in March?
YES 30%/NO 71%
No ScoreSplit
$8KWill Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $640b on March 31?
YES 19%/NO 82%
No ScoreSplit
$35KWill OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?
YES 21%/NO 80%
No ScoreLean YES
--Will Waymo launch in Washington DC by June 30 2026?
YES 10%/NO 90%
No ScoreSplit
--Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?
YES 32%/NO 69%
No ScoreSplit
$125KWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?
YES 18%/NO 83%
No ScoreSplit
$166KWill US GDP growth in 2026 be less than 0.5%?
YES 8%/NO 92%
No ScoreStrong NO
--Will Emily White be the next CEO of Lululemon?
YES 12%/NO 88%
No ScoreStrong NO
--
Will Micron Technology (MU) beat quarterly earnings?
YES 98%/NO 2%
No ScoreSplit
$21KWill SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?
YES 3%/NO 97%
No ScoreSplit
$47K
Will Clear Street Group Inc. not IPO before April 2026?
YES 94%/NO 6%
No ScoreSplit
$24K
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
YES 66%/NO 35%
No ScoreSplit
$3KWill Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026?
YES 93%/NO 7%
No ScoreSplit
$11K
Crude Oil all time high by March 31?
YES 16%/NO 84%
No ScoreSplit
$100KWill Gold (GC) settle at $5,000-$5,400 in June?
YES 19%/NO 81%
No ScoreSplit
$41KDeepSeek V4 released by March 21?
YES 18%/NO 83%
No ScoreSplit
$2KWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,400 (LOW) in March 2026?
YES 56%/NO 44%
No ScoreSplit
$4KWill Based Polymarket revenue hit $5M before 2027?
YES 10%/NO 90%
No ScoreStrong NO
--
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by June 30?
YES 2%/NO 98%
No ScoreStrong NO
--Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $690b and $700b on March 31?
YES 6%/NO 94%
No ScoreSplit
$12KWill S&P 500 (SPX) close at >$8,000 in December?
YES 14%/NO 86%
No ScoreStrong YES
--
Anthropic CEO arrested?
YES 3%/NO 97%
No ScoreSplit
$130K
Will Lululemon Athletica (LULU) beat quarterly earnings?
YES 92%/NO 9%
No ScoreSplit
$7K
Will Macy's (M) beat quarterly earnings?
YES 86%/NO 14%
No ScoreSplit
$4KWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?
YES 18%/NO 82%
No ScoreSplit
$73KWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in March 2026?
YES 41%/NO 60%
No ScoreSplit
$14KDeepSeek V4 released by April 15?
YES 68%/NO 32%
No ScoreSplit
$359
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027?
YES 46%/NO 54%
No ScoreSplit
$1.6MWill Google (GOOGL) close above $310 end of March?
YES 37%/NO 64%
No ScoreSplit
--Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?
YES 20%/NO 80%
No ScoreSplit
$71KWill Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $710b on March 31?
YES 18%/NO 83%
No ScoreSplit
$77KWill OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
YES 39%/NO 62%
No ScoreSplit
$384K
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
YES 87%/NO 14%
No ScoreSplit
$145KWill SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?
YES 6%/NO 94%
No ScoreStrong YES
--Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027?
YES 3%/NO 97%
No ScoreSplit
--Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026?
YES 79%/NO 21%
No ScoreSplit
$164KWill George Russell win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?
YES 71%/NO 29%
No ScoreSplit
$17KWill Jensen Huang say "Alpamayo" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?
YES 82%/NO 18%
No ScoreSplit
$3K
Will GitLab be acquired before 2027?
YES 27%/NO 73%
No ScoreSplit
$1.1MWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
YES 79%/NO 22%
No ScoreSplit
$443KWill Silver (SI) settle over $65 on the final trading day of June 2026?
YES 81%/NO 20%
No ScoreSplit
$3K
Glean IPO before 2027?
YES 16%/NO 84%
No ScoreSplit
$34KWill Google Gemini score at least 60% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
YES 10%/NO 90%
No ScoreSplit
$17KWill Amazon reach $276 in March?
YES 2%/NO 98%
No ScoreStrong YES
--Will the 2026 trade deficit be less than 500B?
YES 9%/NO 92%
No ScoreStrong NO
--
Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?
YES 23%/NO 77%
No ScoreSplit
--Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026?
YES 46%/NO 55%
No ScoreSplit
--Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026?
YES 80%/NO 21%
No ScoreSplit
$21KWill OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
YES 16%/NO 84%
No ScoreSplit
$3KWill the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027?
YES 3%/NO 97%
No ScoreStrong NO
--Will Waymo operate in 5 cities or less on June 30 2026?
YES 15%/NO 85%
No ScoreSplit
$40KWill Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
YES 32%/NO 68%
No ScoreSplit
$99KCap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?
YES 24%/NO 77%
No ScoreSplit
--
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?
YES 88%/NO 12%
No ScoreSplit
$47KSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?
YES 54%/NO 46%
No ScoreSplit
$113KWill Tesla dip to $330 in March?
YES 10%/NO 91%
No ScoreSplit
$3KWill Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day?
YES 14%/NO 86%
No ScoreSplit
$70K
Cerebras IPO before 2027?
YES 90%/NO 10%
No ScoreSplit
$248KWill inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?
YES 26%/NO 75%
No ScoreSplit
$27KWill S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,600 on the final trading day of March 2026?
YES 62%/NO 39%
No ScoreSplit
$3KWill US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than 1.0%?
YES 15%/NO 85%
No ScoreSplit
$16K
Will Sergey Brin be 2nd richest person on March 31?
YES 2%/NO 98%
No ScoreSplit
$3KWill S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,000-$7,500 in December?
YES 21%/NO 80%
No ScoreStrong YES
--Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?
YES 30%/NO 71%
No ScoreSplit
$62KWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,600 (LOW) in March 2026?
YES 82%/NO 19%
No ScoreSplit
$5KWill the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?
YES 10%/NO 90%
No ScoreSplit
$110KWill Apple (AAPL) close above $290 end of March?
YES 11%/NO 89%
No ScoreSplit
--Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.8% in March?
YES 96%/NO 5%
No ScoreSplit
$67K
Celonis IPO before 2027?
YES 12%/NO 89%
No ScoreStrong YES
--No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting?
YES 96%/NO 4%
No ScoreSplit
$449K
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
YES 39%/NO 62%
No ScoreSplit
$250KWill Google dip to $290 in March?
YES 49%/NO 51%
No ScoreSplit
--
Will a 10% US blanket tariff be in effect on March 31?
YES 94%/NO 7%
No ScoreSplit
$54KWill the S&P 500 Index lose at least 3% on any day in Q1?
YES 26%/NO 74%
No ScoreSplit
$13KKraken IPO by December 31, 2026?
YES 82%/NO 18%
No ScoreSplit
$267K
Glencore and Rio Tinto sale/merger announced by June 30?
YES 8%/NO 92%
No ScoreSplit
--Will SpaceX have between 180-199 launches in 2026?
YES 15%/NO 85%
No ScoreSplit
--
Will Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) beat quarterly earnings?
YES 78%/NO 22%
No ScoreSplit
$1K
Will Steve Ballmer be 3rd richest person on December 31?
YES 6%/NO 94%
No ScoreStrong NO
--Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $12,000 by end of December?
YES 6%/NO 94%
No ScoreLean NO
--Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,600 on the final trading day of June 2026?
YES 21%/NO 80%
No ScoreSplit
$1K
Deel IPO before 2027?
YES 33%/NO 67%
No ScoreSplit
$94KWill Tesla reach $420 in March?
YES 37%/NO 64%
No ScoreSplit
$2KWill SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?
YES 6%/NO 95%
No ScoreSplit
$26KWill Gold have the best performance in 2026?
YES 65%/NO 36%
No ScoreSplit
$226KWill SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?
YES 62%/NO 38%
No ScoreSplit
$8KWill the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?
YES 2%/NO 98%
No ScoreStrong YES
--
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?
YES 7%/NO 93%
No ScoreSplit
$97KWill Amazon (AMZN) close above $210 end of March?
YES 56%/NO 45%
No ScoreSplit
$5K
Will Amazon acquire TikTok?
YES 4%/NO 96%
No ScoreSplit
$62KWill Waymo launch in Las Vegas by June 30 2026?
YES 38%/NO 63%
No ScoreSplit
--Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,900 on the final trading day of March 2026?
YES 21%/NO 80%
No ScoreSplit
$6KWill S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,700 on the final trading day of March 2026?
YES 46%/NO 54%
No ScoreSplit
$3KWill Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%?
YES 4%/NO 96%
No ScoreStrong YES
--
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027?
YES 14%/NO 86%
No ScoreSplit
$368KWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March?
YES 33%/NO 68%
No ScoreSplit
$10KWill Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 end of March?
YES 47%/NO 54%
No ScoreSplit
--
Anthropic IPO before 2027?
YES 37%/NO 64%
No ScoreSplit
$138KWill US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?
YES 11%/NO 89%
No ScoreSplit
$7KFed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?
YES 9%/NO 92%
No ScoreSplit
$109KSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?
YES 43%/NO 57%
No ScoreSplit
$15KWill S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December?
YES 28%/NO 73%
No ScoreSplit
$4K
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?
YES 16%/NO 85%
No ScoreSplit
$53KWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?
YES 58%/NO 42%
No ScoreSplit
$8K
Robinhood launches prediction market through MIAXdx by March 31?
YES 9%/NO 91%
No ScoreSplit
$315K
Will USD-denominated stablecoin market share fall below 99% in 2026?
YES 19%/NO 82%
No ScoreSplit
$38KWill NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $240 end of March?
YES 2%/NO 98%
No ScoreSplit
$370
Will Apple release a MacBook with cellular connectivity by June 30?
YES 6%/NO 94%
No ScoreSplit
$5KWill Larry Page be 2nd richest person on December 31?
YES 36%/NO 65%
No ScoreStrong YES
--
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?
YES 85%/NO 16%
No ScoreSplit
$398KWill Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
YES 13%/NO 88%
No ScoreStrong YES
--Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
YES 25%/NO 76%
No ScoreSplit
$579K
Ramp IPO before 2027?
YES 8%/NO 92%
No ScoreSplit
--Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?
YES 9%/NO 91%
No ScoreSplit
$6K
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027?
YES 52%/NO 49%
No ScoreSplit
$552KWill SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in August 2026 (ET)?
YES 10%/NO 91%
No ScoreStrong YES
--Will Jensen Huang say "Invest" or "Investment" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?
YES 87%/NO 14%
No ScoreSplit
--Will Google reach $355 in March?
YES 5%/NO 96%
No ScoreLean NO
--
Will Freddie Mac not IPO by June 30, 2026?
YES 92%/NO 8%
No ScoreSplit
$12KWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?
YES 36%/NO 65%
No ScoreSplit
$239KWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in March 2026?
YES 67%/NO 33%
No ScoreSplit
$16KWill Amazon (AMZN) close above $260 end of March?
YES 2%/NO 98%
No ScoreSplit
$1KWill Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June?
YES 11%/NO 89%
No ScoreSplit
$36KWill Microsoft (MSFT) close above $450 end of March?
YES 3%/NO 97%
No ScoreStrong NO
--Will Silver (SI) settle over $60 on the final trading day of June 2026?
YES 83%/NO 17%
No ScoreSplit
$3KWill US GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?
YES 7%/NO 93%
No ScoreStrong YES
--Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?
YES 69%/NO 31%
No ScoreSplit
$15KSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?
YES 86%/NO 14%
No ScoreSplit
$173K
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?
YES 24%/NO 76%
No ScoreSplit
$2.3MWill US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?
YES 36%/NO 64%
No ScoreSplit
$173KWill the S&P 500 Index lose at least 4% on any day in Q1?
YES 14%/NO 86%
No ScoreSplit
$13KWill Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
YES 93%/NO 8%
No ScoreSplit
$22KGemini 3.5 released by April 30?
YES 11%/NO 89%
No ScoreSplit
$67K
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
YES 8%/NO 92%
No ScoreSplit
$533KWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
YES 51%/NO 49%
No ScoreSplit
$526KWill Jensen Huang say "Partner" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?
YES 98%/NO 2%
No ScoreSplit
$2KWill Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?
YES 8%/NO 92%
No ScoreSplit
$927KWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
YES 13%/NO 88%
No ScoreSplit
$130KSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?
YES 65%/NO 35%
No ScoreSplit
$39KWill Meta (META) close above $540 end of March?
YES 95%/NO 5%
No ScoreSplit
$404Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy before 2027?
YES 6%/NO 94%
No ScoreStrong YES
--Will NVIDIA reach $216 in March?
YES 5%/NO 95%
No ScoreSplit
$2KWill the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.0%?
YES 4%/NO 96%
No ScoreSplit
$2KWill SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?
YES 12%/NO 88%
No ScoreSplit
--Will Apple (AAPL) close above $240 end of March?
YES 75%/NO 26%
No ScoreSplit
--Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 2m barrels per day in 2026?
YES 5%/NO 95%
No ScoreStrong NO
--Will SpaceX have less than 100 launches in 2026?
YES 4%/NO 96%
No ScoreSplit
--Will Silver (SI) settle over $85 on the final trading day of June 2026?
YES 47%/NO 53%
No ScoreSplit
$37KWill OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
YES 8%/NO 92%
No ScoreStrong YES
--Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $150 end of March?
YES 95%/NO 5%
No ScoreSplit
--Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?
YES 48%/NO 53%
No ScoreSplit
$6K
Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be less than 1.0%?
YES 8%/NO 93%
No ScoreStrong NO
--
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?
YES 42%/NO 58%
No ScoreSplit
$9KWill the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?
YES 4%/NO 96%
No ScoreSplit
$301K
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?
YES 40%/NO 60%
No ScoreSplit
$94KWill SpaceX fail to complete an initial public offering by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET?
YES 14%/NO 86%
No ScoreSplit
--Will Silver (SI) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2026?
YES 52%/NO 48%
No ScoreSplit
$15K
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?
YES 17%/NO 83%
No ScoreSplit
$70KWill Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?
YES 94%/NO 6%
No ScoreSplit
$128KWill US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?
YES 28%/NO 72%
No ScoreSplit
$60KWill Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.7m barrels per day in 2026?
YES 7%/NO 93%
No ScoreSplit
--Will NVIDIA dip to $152 in March?
YES 17%/NO 83%
No ScoreSplit
$14KWill NVIDIA reach $208 in March?
YES 13%/NO 87%
No ScoreSplit
$5KWill Amazon dip to $168 in March?
YES 5%/NO 95%
No ScoreSplit
--Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
YES 11%/NO 90%
No ScoreSplit
$443KWill Jensen Huang say "Blackwell" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?
YES 97%/NO 3%
No ScoreSplit
$2KWill Jensen Huang say "Million" or "Billion" 3+ times at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?
YES 97%/NO 4%
No ScoreSplit
$4K
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?
YES 23%/NO 78%
No ScoreSplit
$234K
Anduril IPO before 2027?
YES 26%/NO 74%
No ScoreSplit
$291KSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?
YES 93%/NO 7%
No ScoreSplit
$224K
Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
YES 32%/NO 68%
No ScoreStrong YES
--
Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by June 30?
YES 3%/NO 97%
No ScoreLean NO
--Will Google (GOOGL) close above $340 end of March?
YES 4%/NO 96%
No ScoreSplit
--
Will Perplexity not IPO by December 31, 2027?
YES 70%/NO 30%
No ScoreSplit
--Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) close over $33,000 on the final trading day of December 2026?
YES 7%/NO 94%
No ScoreStrong YES
--
Will AppLovin acquire TikTok?
YES 5%/NO 95%
No ScoreLean NO
--Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June?
YES 5%/NO 95%
No ScoreSplit
$33K
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 meeting?
YES 4%/NO 96%
No ScoreSplit
$128KWill Waymo launch in Miami by June 30 2026?
YES 97%/NO 3%
No ScoreLean NO
--Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,500-$8,000 in December?
YES 19%/NO 82%
No ScoreStrong YES
--Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in December 2026 (ET)?
YES 4%/NO 96%
No ScoreStrong YES
--
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?
YES 9%/NO 91%
No ScoreLean NO
--Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.4% in March?
YES 14%/NO 86%
No ScoreSplit
$14K
Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027?
YES 9%/NO 92%
No ScoreSplit
--Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) hit $35,000 (HIGH) in December?
YES 7%/NO 94%
No ScoreStrong YES
--
Apple Vision Pro 2 released before 2027?
YES 10%/NO 91%
No ScoreStrong YES
--Will Waymo launch in Denver by June 30 2026?
YES 10%/NO 90%
No ScoreSplit
$9KWill Apple (AAPL) close above $300 end of March?
YES 10%/NO 90%
No ScoreSplit
$2KNo change in Bank of England's interest rates after March 2026 meeting?
YES 96%/NO 4%
No ScoreSplit
$98KWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
YES 3%/NO 98%
No ScoreSplit
$835KWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
YES 59%/NO 41%
No ScoreSplit
$414KWill Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
YES 30%/NO 70%
No ScoreSplit
$203KWill Google dip to $275 in March?
YES 15%/NO 85%
No ScoreSplit
$5KWill Google dip to $260 in March?
YES 8%/NO 93%
No ScoreSplit
$3KMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
YES 13%/NO 88%
No ScoreSplit
$393KWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June?
YES 46%/NO 55%
No ScoreSplit
--Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?
YES 7%/NO 93%
No ScoreSplit
$25KWill Meta (META) close above $740 end of March?
YES 4%/NO 96%
No ScoreSplit
$1K
Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?
YES 9%/NO 91%
No ScoreSplit
$4KWill Jensen Huang say "OpenAI" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?
YES 67%/NO 34%
No ScoreSplit
$707Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,000 (HIGH) in March 2026?
YES 21%/NO 80%
No ScoreSplit
$7KWill the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting?
YES 42%/NO 58%
No ScoreSplit
$79KWill Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June?
YES 18%/NO 82%
No ScoreSplit
$28K
Will Liftoff Mobile not IPO before April 2026?
YES 96%/NO 4%
No ScoreSplit
$29KWill Apple (AAPL) close above $250 end of March?
YES 57%/NO 43%
No ScoreSplit
$3KWill Perplexity AI announce bankruptcy before 2027?
YES 12%/NO 88%
No ScoreLean NO
--Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?
YES 2%/NO 98%
No ScoreSplit
$33KWill Powell say "Fed" or "Federal Reserve" 7+ times during March press conference?
YES 49%/NO 51%
No ScoreSplit
$12KWill Waymo operate in 11 cities on June 30 2026?
YES 21%/NO 80%
No ScoreSplit
$10KSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?
YES 71%/NO 29%
No ScoreSplit
$51KWill Meghan Frank be the next CEO of Lululemon?
YES 42%/NO 58%
No ScoreSplit
$47K
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?
YES 89%/NO 11%
No ScoreSplit
$86KWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027?
YES 5%/NO 95%
No ScoreStrong NO
--Will Amazon dip to $180 in March?
YES 13%/NO 87%
No ScoreSplit
--Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?
YES 21%/NO 80%
No ScoreSplit
$44K
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?
YES 67%/NO 34%
No ScoreSplit
$53K
Discord IPO before 2027?
YES 82%/NO 19%
No ScoreSplit
$318KWill Tesla dip to $300 in March?
YES 4%/NO 96%
No ScoreSplit
$7KWill Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?
YES 20%/NO 80%
No ScoreSplit
$15KWill Silver (SI) settle over $100 on the final trading day of June 2026?
YES 43%/NO 57%
No ScoreSplit
$3KWill Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 3.00% and 3.49%?
YES 8%/NO 92%
No ScoreSplit
--Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day?
YES 3%/NO 97%
No ScoreSplit
$131KWill S&P 500 (SPX) close over $7,000 on the final trading day of March 2026?
YES 16%/NO 85%
No ScoreSplit
--Will Google (GOOGL) close above $260 end of March?
YES 95%/NO 6%
No ScoreSplit
$2K
Will Elon Musk / X (Twitter) acquire TikTok?
YES 4%/NO 96%
No ScoreStrong NO
--Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
YES 67%/NO 33%
No ScoreSplit
$222KWill Google have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?
YES 84%/NO 16%
No ScoreSplit
$12KWill SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in July 2026 (ET)?
YES 11%/NO 89%
No ScoreSplit
--Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?
YES 20%/NO 81%
No ScoreSplit
$148K
Will Playboy (PLBY) beat quarterly earnings?
YES 96%/NO 4%
No ScoreSplit
$17KSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?
YES 79%/NO 21%
No ScoreSplit
$73KJerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?
YES 72%/NO 28%
No ScoreSplit
--Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?
YES 2%/NO 98%
No ScoreSplit
$171KWill Google have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?
YES 21%/NO 79%
No ScoreSplit
$16KWill Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
YES 68%/NO 33%
No ScoreSplit
$206KWill Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
YES 26%/NO 75%
No ScoreSplit
$15KBusiness & Economics Markets FAQ
How many business & economics prediction markets are available?
There are currently 744 business & economics prediction markets being tracked and analyzed on PolyPulse. Each market includes smart money consensus data, alpha scoring, and opportunity assessment.
What is the average alpha score for business & economics markets?
The average alpha score across business & economics markets is 10.7 out of 100. Markets in this category tend to be more efficiently priced, with smart money and the broader market more closely aligned.
How does smart money analysis work for business & economics markets?
PolyPulse tracks thousands of wallets with a demonstrated history of profitable prediction market trades. For business & economics markets, we analyze their position direction (YES/NO), size, and timing to generate a consensus signal. When smart money heavily favors one side, it often indicates an edge the broader market hasn't priced in.
What is the best business & economics market to trade right now?
Markets are ranked by alpha score, which measures the gap between smart money consensus and current market pricing. The top-ranked business & economics markets on this page have the highest alpha scores, indicating the largest potential edge. However, always consider liquidity, time to expiry, and your own analysis before trading.
How often is business & economics market data updated?
Market data including prices, volume, smart money positions, and alpha scores are refreshed regularly to reflect the latest on-chain activity. Smart money consensus can shift as new positions are taken, so check back frequently for updated analysis.
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