Will General Mills (GIS) beat quarterly earnings?
YES Price
85.5%
NO Price
14.5%
Volume
$3.4K
Liquidity
$804
Days to Expiry
5
Mar 18, 2026
Alpha Score
Minimal Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Lean YES
Strength
66.7%
Edge
10.2%
Smart Wallets
3
Total smart money volume: $274 across 3 wallets. Direction: STRONG YES.
Market Analysis
Smart money is decisively bullish on this market. 3 tracked wallets with a history of profitable trades have taken positions totaling $274, overwhelmingly favoring YES. This level of conviction from informed traders is notable — when this many smart wallets align on one side, it often signals information or analysis the broader market hasn't fully priced in.
The consensus edge sits at 10.2%, indicating a moderate gap between market pricing and smart money sentiment. YES is currently at 85.5% while the Lean YES consensus suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to the information smart wallets are acting on. This edge is meaningful but not extreme.
With YES priced at 85.5%, this is a high-probability market with limited upside. A YES win returns only 17% on capital. The real opportunity may be on the NO side if you believe the market is overestimating the likelihood of this outcome. At 14.5% for NO, a correct contrarian bet returns 6.9x.
With 5 days until expiry, this is a short-duration trade. The compressed timeline limits exposure to black swan events but also means the market is likely well-informed. Position conviction should be high at this stage.
At $3.4K in volume, this market has seen limited trading activity. Lower-volume markets can offer larger edges but come with execution risk — wide spreads and thin order books may make it difficult to enter or exit at desired prices.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
30/72
Mild Opportunity
Annualized Return
741%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$804
Available depth
This market presents a moderate trading opportunity. The edge exists but is balanced against factors like liquidity constraints or lower conviction in the consensus. Position sizing should reflect the moderate confidence level.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will General Mills (GIS) beat quarterly earnings?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 85.5% and NO at 14.5%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 85.5%. The market has seen $3.4K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Will General Mills (GIS) beat quarterly earnings?"?
Smart money consensus is Lean YES with 67% strength. 3 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $274. Their overall direction is STRONG YES.
Is "Will General Mills (GIS) beat quarterly earnings?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 30 out of 72 and an alpha score of 7 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 10.2%. The annualized return potential is 741%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this business & economics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 18, 2026. That's 5 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will General Mills (GIS) beat quarterly earnings?" market?
The market has $804 in liquidity. Very thin liquidity — trade with caution, significant slippage risk Total volume traded is $3.4K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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