Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?
YES Price
34.0%
NO Price
66.0%
Volume
--
Liquidity
$7.8K
Days to Expiry
109
Jun 30, 2026
Alpha Score
Minimal Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Strong NO
Strength
100.0%
Edge
34.0%
Smart Wallets
1
Total smart money volume: $10 across 1 wallet. Direction: STRONG NO.
Market Analysis
Smart money is firmly positioned against this outcome. 1 tracked wallets have deployed $10 in total, with the overwhelming majority betting NO. When sophisticated traders cluster this heavily on one side, it typically reflects deeper analysis or information advantages that haven't been fully absorbed by the market.
The consensus edge is 34.0% — a substantial gap between the current market price and where smart money analysis suggests the true probability lies. With the market pricing YES at 34.0% and the Strong NO consensus, there's a meaningful divergence that could represent a trading opportunity. Edges this large don't persist indefinitely; they either correct as the market catches up, or the smart money thesis proves wrong.
The market is relatively balanced with YES at 34.0% and NO at 66.0%. A YES resolution returns 2.94x while a NO resolution returns 1.52x. In balanced markets like this, the edge from smart money consensus becomes the primary decision driver rather than raw payout asymmetry.
This is a longer-dated market with 109 days to resolution. While the annualized return potential can look attractive, extended timelines come with significant uncertainty. Smart money positions taken this far out reflect high-conviction views, but a lot can change.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
25/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
114%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$7.8K
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 34.0% and NO at 66.0%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 34.0%.
What does smart money think about "Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?"?
Smart money consensus is Strong NO with 100% strength. 1 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $10. Their overall direction is STRONG NO.
Is "Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 25 out of 72 and an alpha score of 2 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 34.0%. The annualized return potential is 114%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this business & economics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on June 30, 2026. That's 109 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?" market?
The market has $7.8K in liquidity. Thin liquidity — may experience slippage on larger orders
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