Will Duke Rodriguez win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?
YES Price
21.5%
NO Price
78.5%
Volume
--
Liquidity
$4.7K
Days to Expiry
81
Jun 2, 2026
Alpha Score
Insufficient Data
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Split
Strength
25.0%
Edge
--
Smart Wallets
4
Total smart money volume: $1.2K across 4 wallets. Direction: SPLIT.
Market Analysis
Smart money is divided on this market. 4 tracked wallets have placed $1.2K in total positions, but without a clear directional consensus. A split among informed traders often indicates genuine uncertainty — this market may be closer to a coin flip than the current prices suggest.
The market is relatively balanced with YES at 21.5% and NO at 78.5%. A YES resolution returns 4.65x while a NO resolution returns 1.27x. In balanced markets like this, the edge from smart money consensus becomes the primary decision driver rather than raw payout asymmetry.
This is a longer-dated market with 81 days to resolution. While the annualized return potential can look attractive, extended timelines come with significant uncertainty. Smart money positions taken this far out reflect high-conviction views, but a lot can change.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
13/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
--
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$4.7K
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Duke Rodriguez win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 21.5% and NO at 78.5%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 21.5%.
What does smart money think about "Will Duke Rodriguez win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?"?
Smart money consensus is Split with 25% strength. 4 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $1.2K. Their overall direction is SPLIT.
Is "Will Duke Rodriguez win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 13 out of 72 and an alpha score of N/A out of 100. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this us politics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on June 2, 2026. That's 81 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will Duke Rodriguez win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?" market?
The market has $4.7K in liquidity. Very thin liquidity — trade with caution, significant slippage risk
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