2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 50% by March 31?
YES Price
93.1%
NO Price
6.9%
Volume
$32.0K
Liquidity
$4.2K
Days to Expiry
19
Mar 31, 2026
Alpha Score
Minimal Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Lean YES
Strength
66.7%
Edge
4.8%
Smart Wallets
3
Total smart money volume: $2.6K across 3 wallets. Direction: STRONG YES.
Market Analysis
Smart money is decisively bullish on this market. 3 tracked wallets with a history of profitable trades have taken positions totaling $2.6K, overwhelmingly favoring YES. This level of conviction from informed traders is notable — when this many smart wallets align on one side, it often signals information or analysis the broader market hasn't fully priced in.
The consensus edge is a narrow 4.8%, meaning smart money and the market are largely in agreement. The current YES price of 93.1% is close to where informed traders think it should be. In tight-edge markets, transaction costs and timing become more critical factors.
With YES priced at 93.1%, this is a high-probability market with limited upside. A YES win returns only 7% on capital. The real opportunity may be on the NO side if you believe the market is overestimating the likelihood of this outcome. At 6.9% for NO, a correct contrarian bet returns 14.5x.
19 days remain until this market resolves. This medium-term horizon gives time for the smart money thesis to play out, but also introduces event risk. Markets this far from expiry can see significant price swings as new information emerges.
At $32.0K in volume, this market has seen limited trading activity. Lower-volume markets can offer larger edges but come with execution risk — wide spreads and thin order books may make it difficult to enter or exit at desired prices.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
26/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
93%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$4.2K
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 50% by March 31?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 93.1% and NO at 6.9%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 93.1%. The market has seen $32.0K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 50% by March 31?"?
Smart money consensus is Lean YES with 67% strength. 3 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $2.6K. Their overall direction is STRONG YES.
Is "2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 50% by March 31?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 26 out of 72 and an alpha score of 5 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 4.8%. The annualized return potential is 93%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this us politics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2026. That's 19 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 50% by March 31?" market?
The market has $4.2K in liquidity. Very thin liquidity — trade with caution, significant slippage risk Total volume traded is $32.0K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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