Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?
YES Price
17.5%
NO Price
82.5%
Volume
$1.25M
Liquidity
$96.1K
Days to Expiry
19
Mar 31, 2026
Alpha Score
Insufficient Data
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Split
Strength
50.2%
Edge
--
Smart Wallets
80
Total smart money volume: $309.8K across 80 wallets. Direction: SPLIT.
Market Analysis
Smart money is divided on this market. 80 tracked wallets have placed $309.8K in total positions, but without a clear directional consensus. A split among informed traders often indicates genuine uncertainty — this market may be closer to a coin flip than the current prices suggest.
At 17.5% for YES, this is a high-payout longshot. A YES resolution would return roughly 5.7x on the investment. The asymmetry is attractive — you don't need to be right often on these to profit, but the base rate of sub-20% events resolving YES is low. Consider position sizing accordingly.
19 days remain until this market resolves. This medium-term horizon gives time for the smart money thesis to play out, but also introduces event risk. Markets this far from expiry can see significant price swings as new information emerges.
With $1.25M in total volume, this is a heavily-traded market with strong price discovery. High-volume markets tend to be more efficiently priced, making any remaining smart money edge particularly significant — it's harder to find alpha in liquid markets.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
30/72
Mild Opportunity
Annualized Return
--
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$96.1K
Available depth
This market presents a moderate trading opportunity. The edge exists but is balanced against factors like liquidity constraints or lower conviction in the consensus. Position sizing should reflect the moderate confidence level.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 17.5% and NO at 82.5%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 17.5%. The market has seen $1.25M in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?"?
Smart money consensus is Split with 50% strength. 80 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $309.8K. Their overall direction is SPLIT.
Is "Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 30 out of 72 and an alpha score of N/A out of 100. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this world politics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2026. That's 19 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?" market?
The market has $96.1K in liquidity. Moderate liquidity — suitable for most position sizes Total volume traded is $1.25M, which provides additional context on market activity.
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