Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
YES Price
37.5%
NO Price
62.5%
Volume
$11.62M
Liquidity
$344.7K
Days to Expiry
293
Dec 31, 2026
Alpha Score
Insufficient Data
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Split
Strength
50.7%
Edge
--
Smart Wallets
95
Total smart money volume: $1.10M across 95 wallets. Direction: SPLIT.
Market Analysis
Smart money is divided on this market. 95 tracked wallets have placed $1.10M in total positions, but without a clear directional consensus. A split among informed traders often indicates genuine uncertainty — this market may be closer to a coin flip than the current prices suggest.
The market is relatively balanced with YES at 37.5% and NO at 62.5%. A YES resolution returns 2.67x while a NO resolution returns 1.60x. In balanced markets like this, the edge from smart money consensus becomes the primary decision driver rather than raw payout asymmetry.
This is a longer-dated market with 293 days to resolution. While the annualized return potential can look attractive, extended timelines come with significant uncertainty. Smart money positions taken this far out reflect high-conviction views, but a lot can change.
With $11.62M in total volume, this is a heavily-traded market with strong price discovery. High-volume markets tend to be more efficiently priced, making any remaining smart money edge particularly significant — it's harder to find alpha in liquid markets.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
13/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
--
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$344.7K
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 37.5% and NO at 62.5%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 37.5%. The market has seen $11.62M in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?"?
Smart money consensus is Split with 51% strength. 95 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $1.10M. Their overall direction is SPLIT.
Is "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 13 out of 72 and an alpha score of N/A out of 100. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this world politics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026. That's 293 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?" market?
The market has $344.7K in liquidity. Deep liquidity — easy to enter and exit positions Total volume traded is $11.62M, which provides additional context on market activity.
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