Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?
YES Price
20.5%
NO Price
79.5%
Volume
$58.7K
Liquidity
$12.5K
Days to Expiry
11
Mar 24, 2026
Alpha Score
Insufficient Data
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Split
Strength
28.6%
Edge
--
Smart Wallets
7
Total smart money volume: $1.7K across 7 wallets. Direction: SPLIT.
Market Analysis
Smart money is divided on this market. 7 tracked wallets have placed $1.7K in total positions, but without a clear directional consensus. A split among informed traders often indicates genuine uncertainty — this market may be closer to a coin flip than the current prices suggest.
The market is relatively balanced with YES at 20.5% and NO at 79.5%. A YES resolution returns 4.88x while a NO resolution returns 1.26x. In balanced markets like this, the edge from smart money consensus becomes the primary decision driver rather than raw payout asymmetry.
With 11 days until expiry, this is a short-duration trade. The compressed timeline limits exposure to black swan events but also means the market is likely well-informed. Position conviction should be high at this stage.
At $58.7K in volume, this market has seen limited trading activity. Lower-volume markets can offer larger edges but come with execution risk — wide spreads and thin order books may make it difficult to enter or exit at desired prices.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
31/72
Mild Opportunity
Annualized Return
--
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$12.5K
Available depth
This market presents a moderate trading opportunity. The edge exists but is balanced against factors like liquidity constraints or lower conviction in the consensus. Position sizing should reflect the moderate confidence level.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 20.5% and NO at 79.5%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 20.5%. The market has seen $58.7K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?"?
Smart money consensus is Split with 29% strength. 7 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $1.7K. Their overall direction is SPLIT.
Is "Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 31 out of 72 and an alpha score of N/A out of 100. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this world politics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 24, 2026. That's 11 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?" market?
The market has $12.5K in liquidity. Thin liquidity — may experience slippage on larger orders Total volume traded is $58.7K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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