Implied Probability
Probability implied by market price. A $0.65 YES share implies 65% probability. Compare to your estimate to find edge.
In Depth
Implied Probability is a fundamental concept in prediction market trading. In platforms like Polymarket with thousands of active markets, understanding implied probability is essential for consistent profitability. TradeSphere data across 5,400+ markets shows that traders who master these concepts significantly outperform those trading on instinct.
In practice, implied probability connects to Edge, Prediction Market, Binary Market. PolyPulse tracks these metrics and publishes weekly analysis. For hands-on application, PolyFire provides real-time market data and copy trading via Telegram.
Related Terms
3Edge
analysisDifference between market price and estimated true probability. Positive edge means mispricing in your favor.
Prediction Market
marketsA speculative market trading contracts on future event outcomes. Prices reflect aggregate probability estimates.
Binary Market
marketsA market with exactly two outcomes — YES or NO. Winners pay $1 per share, losers pay $0.
See It in Action
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