Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?
YES Price
89.6%
NO Price
10.4%
Volume
$688.0K
Liquidity
$15.6K
Days to Expiry
18
Mar 31, 2026
Alpha Score
High Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Strong YES
Strength
78.1%
Edge
10.4%
Smart Wallets
32
Total smart money volume: $63.1K across 32 wallets. Direction: STRONG YES.
Market Analysis
Smart money is decisively bullish on this market. 32 tracked wallets with a history of profitable trades have taken positions totaling $63.1K, overwhelmingly favoring YES. This level of conviction from informed traders is notable — when this many smart wallets align on one side, it often signals information or analysis the broader market hasn't fully priced in.
The consensus edge sits at 10.4%, indicating a moderate gap between market pricing and smart money sentiment. YES is currently at 89.6% while the Strong YES consensus suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to the information smart wallets are acting on. This edge is meaningful but not extreme.
With YES priced at 89.6%, this is a high-probability market with limited upside. A YES win returns only 12% on capital. The real opportunity may be on the NO side if you believe the market is overestimating the likelihood of this outcome. At 10.4% for NO, a correct contrarian bet returns 9.6x.
18 days remain until this market resolves. This medium-term horizon gives time for the smart money thesis to play out, but also introduces event risk. Markets this far from expiry can see significant price swings as new information emerges.
Total trading volume of $688.0K puts this in the moderately active tier. There's enough price discovery for the odds to be somewhat reliable, but not so much that alpha opportunities are completely arbitraged away.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
32/72
Mild Opportunity
Annualized Return
211%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$15.6K
Available depth
This market presents a moderate trading opportunity. The edge exists but is balanced against factors like liquidity constraints or lower conviction in the consensus. Position sizing should reflect the moderate confidence level.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 89.6% and NO at 10.4%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 89.6%. The market has seen $688.0K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?"?
Smart money consensus is Strong YES with 78% strength. 32 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $63.1K. Their overall direction is STRONG YES.
Is "Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 32 out of 72 and an alpha score of 78 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 10.4%. The annualized return potential is 211%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this pop culture market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2026. That's 18 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?" market?
The market has $15.6K in liquidity. Thin liquidity — may experience slippage on larger orders Total volume traded is $688.0K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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