Cherbourg: Jurij Rodionov vs Gauthier Onclin
YES Price
75.0%
NO Price
25.0%
Volume
$12.4K
Liquidity
$12.8K
Days to Expiry
7
Mar 20, 2026
Alpha Score
Low Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Strong YES
Strength
100.0%
Edge
25.0%
Smart Wallets
1
Total smart money volume: $600 across 1 wallet. Direction: STRONG YES.
Market Analysis
Smart money is decisively bullish on this market. 1 tracked wallets with a history of profitable trades have taken positions totaling $600, overwhelmingly favoring YES. This level of conviction from informed traders is notable — when this many smart wallets align on one side, it often signals information or analysis the broader market hasn't fully priced in.
The consensus edge is 25.0% — a substantial gap between the current market price and where smart money analysis suggests the true probability lies. With the market pricing YES at 75.0% and the Strong YES consensus, there's a meaningful divergence that could represent a trading opportunity. Edges this large don't persist indefinitely; they either correct as the market catches up, or the smart money thesis proves wrong.
The market is relatively balanced with YES at 75.0% and NO at 25.0%. A YES resolution returns 1.33x while a NO resolution returns 4.00x. In balanced markets like this, the edge from smart money consensus becomes the primary decision driver rather than raw payout asymmetry.
With 7 days until expiry, this is a short-duration trade. The compressed timeline limits exposure to black swan events but also means the market is likely well-informed. Position conviction should be high at this stage.
At $12.4K in volume, this market has seen limited trading activity. Lower-volume markets can offer larger edges but come with execution risk — wide spreads and thin order books may make it difficult to enter or exit at desired prices.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
46/72
Moderate Opportunity
Annualized Return
1000%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$12.8K
Available depth
This market presents a moderate trading opportunity. The edge exists but is balanced against factors like liquidity constraints or lower conviction in the consensus. Position sizing should reflect the moderate confidence level.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Cherbourg: Jurij Rodionov vs Gauthier Onclin"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 75.0% and NO at 25.0%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 75.0%. The market has seen $12.4K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Cherbourg: Jurij Rodionov vs Gauthier Onclin"?
Smart money consensus is Strong YES with 100% strength. 1 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $600. Their overall direction is STRONG YES.
Is "Cherbourg: Jurij Rodionov vs Gauthier Onclin" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 46 out of 72 and an alpha score of 27 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 25.0%. The annualized return potential is 1000%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this other markets market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 20, 2026. That's 7 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Cherbourg: Jurij Rodionov vs Gauthier Onclin" market?
The market has $12.8K in liquidity. Thin liquidity — may experience slippage on larger orders Total volume traded is $12.4K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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