Expectancy
Average expected profit per trade: (win rate x avg win) - (loss rate x avg loss). Must be positive for viable strategy.
In Depth
Expectancy is a fundamental concept in prediction market trading. In platforms like Polymarket with thousands of active markets, understanding expectancy is essential for consistent profitability. TradeSphere data across 5,400+ markets shows that traders who master these concepts significantly outperform those trading on instinct.
In practice, expectancy connects to Win Rate, Profit Factor, Edge. PolyPulse tracks these metrics and publishes weekly analysis. For hands-on application, PolyFire provides real-time market data and copy trading via Telegram.
Related Terms
3Win Rate
analysisPercentage of profitable trades. High win rate alone does not guarantee profitability — depends on win/loss size ratio.
Profit Factor
analysisGross profits divided by gross losses. Above 1.0 is profitable; above 1.5 is healthy; above 2.0 is excellent.
Edge
analysisDifference between market price and estimated true probability. Positive edge means mispricing in your favor.
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