Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?
YES Price
84.5%
NO Price
15.5%
Volume
$153.3K
Liquidity
$776.7K
Days to Expiry
34
Apr 16, 2026
Alpha Score
Insufficient Data
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Split
Strength
50.0%
Edge
--
Smart Wallets
4
Total smart money volume: $35.9K across 4 wallets. Direction: SPLIT.
Market Analysis
Smart money is divided on this market. 4 tracked wallets have placed $35.9K in total positions, but without a clear directional consensus. A split among informed traders often indicates genuine uncertainty — this market may be closer to a coin flip than the current prices suggest.
With YES priced at 84.5%, this is a high-probability market with limited upside. A YES win returns only 18% on capital. The real opportunity may be on the NO side if you believe the market is overestimating the likelihood of this outcome. At 15.5% for NO, a correct contrarian bet returns 6.5x.
34 days remain until this market resolves. This medium-term horizon gives time for the smart money thesis to play out, but also introduces event risk. Markets this far from expiry can see significant price swings as new information emerges.
Total trading volume of $153.3K puts this in the moderately active tier. There's enough price discovery for the odds to be somewhat reliable, but not so much that alpha opportunities are completely arbitraged away.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
29/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
--
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$776.7K
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 84.5% and NO at 15.5%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 84.5%. The market has seen $153.3K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?"?
Smart money consensus is Split with 50% strength. 4 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $35.9K. Their overall direction is SPLIT.
Is "Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 29 out of 72 and an alpha score of N/A out of 100. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this sports market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on April 16, 2026. That's 34 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?" market?
The market has $776.7K in liquidity. Deep liquidity — easy to enter and exit positions Total volume traded is $153.3K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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