Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?
YES Price
6.6%
NO Price
93.4%
Volume
$5.0K
Liquidity
$5.3K
Days to Expiry
80
May 31, 2026
Alpha Score
Insufficient Data
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Split
Strength
50.0%
Edge
--
Smart Wallets
4
Total smart money volume: $305 across 4 wallets. Direction: SPLIT.
Market Analysis
Smart money is divided on this market. 4 tracked wallets have placed $305 in total positions, but without a clear directional consensus. A split among informed traders often indicates genuine uncertainty — this market may be closer to a coin flip than the current prices suggest.
At 6.6% for YES, this is a high-payout longshot. A YES resolution would return roughly 15.2x on the investment. The asymmetry is attractive — you don't need to be right often on these to profit, but the base rate of sub-20% events resolving YES is low. Consider position sizing accordingly.
This is a longer-dated market with 80 days to resolution. While the annualized return potential can look attractive, extended timelines come with significant uncertainty. Smart money positions taken this far out reflect high-conviction views, but a lot can change.
At $5.0K in volume, this market has seen limited trading activity. Lower-volume markets can offer larger edges but come with execution risk — wide spreads and thin order books may make it difficult to enter or exit at desired prices.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
14/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
--
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$5.3K
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 6.6% and NO at 93.4%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 6.6%. The market has seen $5.0K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?"?
Smart money consensus is Split with 50% strength. 4 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $305. Their overall direction is SPLIT.
Is "Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 14 out of 72 and an alpha score of N/A out of 100. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this science & technology market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on May 31, 2026. That's 80 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?" market?
The market has $5.3K in liquidity. Thin liquidity — may experience slippage on larger orders Total volume traded is $5.0K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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