Mavericks vs. Bucks
YES Price
36.0%
NO Price
64.0%
Volume
$1.84M
Liquidity
$13.6K
Days to Expiry
18
Mar 31, 2026
Alpha Score
Low Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Lean YES
Strength
60.0%
Edge
44.8%
Smart Wallets
10
Total smart money volume: $28.3K across 10 wallets. Direction: STRONG YES.
Market Analysis
Smart money is decisively bullish on this market. 10 tracked wallets with a history of profitable trades have taken positions totaling $28.3K, overwhelmingly favoring YES. This level of conviction from informed traders is notable — when this many smart wallets align on one side, it often signals information or analysis the broader market hasn't fully priced in.
The consensus edge is 44.8% — a substantial gap between the current market price and where smart money analysis suggests the true probability lies. With the market pricing YES at 36.0% and the Lean YES consensus, there's a meaningful divergence that could represent a trading opportunity. Edges this large don't persist indefinitely; they either correct as the market catches up, or the smart money thesis proves wrong.
The market is relatively balanced with YES at 36.0% and NO at 64.0%. A YES resolution returns 2.78x while a NO resolution returns 1.56x. In balanced markets like this, the edge from smart money consensus becomes the primary decision driver rather than raw payout asymmetry.
18 days remain until this market resolves. This medium-term horizon gives time for the smart money thesis to play out, but also introduces event risk. Markets this far from expiry can see significant price swings as new information emerges.
With $1.84M in total volume, this is a heavily-traded market with strong price discovery. High-volume markets tend to be more efficiently priced, making any remaining smart money edge particularly significant — it's harder to find alpha in liquid markets.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
53/72
Moderate Opportunity
Annualized Return
908%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$13.6K
Available depth
This market scores in the top tier for trading opportunity. The combination of smart money edge, market liquidity, and time to expiry makes it worth close attention. The annualized return of 908% is attractive if the smart money consensus proves correct.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Mavericks vs. Bucks"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 36.0% and NO at 64.0%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 36.0%. The market has seen $1.84M in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Mavericks vs. Bucks"?
Smart money consensus is Lean YES with 60% strength. 10 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $28.3K. Their overall direction is STRONG YES.
Is "Mavericks vs. Bucks" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 53 out of 72 and an alpha score of 21 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 44.8%. The annualized return potential is 908%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this sports market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2026. That's 18 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Mavericks vs. Bucks" market?
The market has $13.6K in liquidity. Thin liquidity — may experience slippage on larger orders Total volume traded is $1.84M, which provides additional context on market activity.
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