Cavaliers vs. Mavericks
YES Price
86.5%
NO Price
13.5%
Volume
$303.5K
Liquidity
$319.7K
Days to Expiry
1
Mar 13, 2026
Alpha Score
Minimal Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Lean NO
Strength
60.0%
Edge
60.5%
Smart Wallets
10
Total smart money volume: $31.0K across 10 wallets. Direction: STRONG NO.
Market Analysis
Smart money is firmly positioned against this outcome. 10 tracked wallets have deployed $31.0K in total, with the overwhelming majority betting NO. When sophisticated traders cluster this heavily on one side, it typically reflects deeper analysis or information advantages that haven't been fully absorbed by the market.
The consensus edge is 60.5% — a substantial gap between the current market price and where smart money analysis suggests the true probability lies. With the market pricing YES at 86.5% and the Lean NO consensus, there's a meaningful divergence that could represent a trading opportunity. Edges this large don't persist indefinitely; they either correct as the market catches up, or the smart money thesis proves wrong.
With YES priced at 86.5%, this is a high-probability market with limited upside. A YES win returns only 16% on capital. The real opportunity may be on the NO side if you believe the market is overestimating the likelihood of this outcome. At 13.5% for NO, a correct contrarian bet returns 7.4x.
This market expires in 1 day — resolution is imminent. Short-dated markets tend to have the most accurate pricing since most information is already known. Any remaining edge is likely small, but the rapid time decay means positions resolve quickly with minimal holding risk.
Total trading volume of $303.5K puts this in the moderately active tier. There's enough price discovery for the odds to be somewhat reliable, but not so much that alpha opportunities are completely arbitraged away.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
52/72
Moderate Opportunity
Annualized Return
1000%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$319.7K
Available depth
This market scores in the top tier for trading opportunity. The combination of smart money edge, market liquidity, and time to expiry makes it worth close attention. The annualized return of 1000% is attractive if the smart money consensus proves correct.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Cavaliers vs. Mavericks"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 86.5% and NO at 13.5%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 86.5%. The market has seen $303.5K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Cavaliers vs. Mavericks"?
Smart money consensus is Lean NO with 60% strength. 10 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $31.0K. Their overall direction is STRONG NO.
Is "Cavaliers vs. Mavericks" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 52 out of 72 and an alpha score of 6 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 60.5%. The annualized return potential is 1000%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this sports market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 13, 2026. That's 1 day from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Cavaliers vs. Mavericks" market?
The market has $319.7K in liquidity. Deep liquidity — easy to enter and exit positions Total volume traded is $303.5K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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